The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Flamengo v Grêmio

Kickoff: 2026-11-04 22:30 UTC

Final: Flamengo 3–1 Grêmio

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Flamengo (Local)

Prediction 83.17%1.20fair odd
EV -3.52%
Edge -3.03%
Kelly -21.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.24%83.06%83.37%85.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.071.121.121.1693.46%89.59%89.29%86.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Grêmio (Visit)

Prediction 5.77%17.33fair odd
EV +21.19%
Edge +1.01%
Kelly +1.06%
Growth +0.224%

assuming max odds 21.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.65%5.89%5.67%8.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0016.3517.0021.0010.00%6.12%5.88%4.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.06%9.04fair odd
EV +10.56%
Edge +1.06%
Kelly +1.17%
Growth +0.124%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.73%11.05%10.97%14.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.708.538.5010.0017.54%11.73%11.76%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Flamengo (Local): 83.17%; Grêmio (Visit): 5.77%; Draw: 11.06%. For Grêmio (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 17.33. 17 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 21.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +21.19%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 85.60%EV -5.18%E -4.55%K -37.02%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.65%EV +21.19%E +1.01%K +1.06%G +0.224%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.76%EV +10.56%E +1.06%K +1.17%G +0.124%2.5%2026-11-04 22:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 85.60%EV -5.18%E -4.55%K -37.02%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.65%EV +21.19%E +1.01%K +1.06%G +0.224%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.76%EV +10.56%E +1.06%K +1.17%G +0.124%2.5%2026-11-04 22:15
Pinnacle🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 85.09%EV -6.01%E -5.32%K -46.26%G +0.000%19.85I 5.04%NM 4.84%EV +14.55%E +0.733%K +0.772%G +0.112%9.55I 10.47%NM 10.07%EV +5.58%E +0.585%K +0.653%G +0.036%4.0%2026-11-04 22:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 85.10%EV -5.18%E -4.55%K -37.02%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.11%EV +9.65%E +0.508%K +0.536%G +0.052%9.90I 10.10%NM 9.80%EV +9.45%E +0.955%K +1.06%G +0.100%3.1%2026-11-04 21:09
LowVig.ag🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 85.10%EV -5.18%E -4.55%K -37.02%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.11%EV +9.65%E +0.508%K +0.536%G +0.052%9.90I 10.10%NM 9.80%EV +9.45%E +0.955%K +1.06%G +0.100%3.1%2026-11-04 21:10
BetUS🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 85.10%EV -5.18%E -4.55%K -37.02%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.11%EV +9.65%E +0.508%K +0.536%G +0.052%9.90I 10.10%NM 9.80%EV +9.45%E +0.955%K +1.06%G +0.100%3.1%2026-11-04 21:09
BetAnything🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 85.10%EV -5.18%E -4.55%K -37.02%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.11%EV +9.65%E +0.508%K +0.536%G +0.052%9.90I 10.10%NM 9.80%EV +9.45%E +0.955%K +1.06%G +0.100%3.1%2026-11-04 21:09
PlayUp🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.62%EV -7.68%E -6.92%K -69.80%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.94%EV +9.65%E +0.508%K +0.536%G +0.052%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV -0.497%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-04 22:25
1xBet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 83.50%EV -4.35%E -3.78%K -29.01%G +0.000%18.10I 5.52%NM 5.31%EV +4.45%E +0.246%K +0.260%G +0.012%8.58I 11.66%NM 11.19%EV -5.14%E -0.599%K -0.678%G +0.000%4.1%2026-11-04 22:20
Fanatics🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.85%E -6.11%K -57.05%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.24%EV +3.88%E +0.215%K +0.228%G +0.009%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.49%EV -0.497%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-04 22:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -7.68%E -6.92%K -69.80%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.20%EV +3.88%E +0.215%K +0.228%G +0.009%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.41%EV -0.497%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-04 22:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -7.68%E -6.92%K -69.80%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.20%EV +3.88%E +0.215%K +0.228%G +0.009%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.41%EV -0.497%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-04 22:15
Casumo🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -7.68%E -6.92%K -69.80%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.20%EV +3.88%E +0.215%K +0.228%G +0.009%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.41%EV -0.497%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-04 22:15
Unibet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -7.68%E -6.92%K -69.80%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.20%EV +3.88%E +0.215%K +0.228%G +0.009%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.41%EV -0.497%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-04 22:15
betPARX🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -7.68%E -6.92%K -69.80%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.20%EV +3.88%E +0.215%K +0.228%G +0.009%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.41%EV -0.497%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-04 22:15
Betsson🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.09%EV -7.68%E -6.92%K -69.80%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.19%EV +3.88%E +0.215%K +0.228%G +0.009%8.70I 11.49%NM 10.73%EV -3.81%E -0.438%K -0.495%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-04 22:00
NordicBet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.77%EV -7.68%E -6.92%K -69.80%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.17%EV +3.88%E +0.215%K +0.228%G +0.009%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.07%EV -7.13%E -0.849%K -0.964%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-04 21:40
Coolbet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.27%EV -6.01%E -5.32%K -46.26%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.60%EV -1.90%E -0.111%K -0.118%G +0.000%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.13%EV +3.93%E +0.418%K +0.467%G +0.018%5.0%2026-11-04 19:09
SportsBet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.69%EV -6.85%E -6.11%K -57.05%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.58%EV -1.90%E -0.111%K -0.118%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.73%EV +7.80%E +0.800%K +0.891%G +0.069%5.4%2026-11-04 22:15
Betway🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.89%EV -6.01%E -5.32%K -46.26%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.58%EV -1.90%E -0.111%K -0.118%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.53%EV -0.497%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-04 22:20
DraftKings🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.01%EV -6.85%E -6.11%K -57.05%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.53%EV -1.90%E -0.111%K -0.118%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -0.497%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-04 22:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.80%EV -6.01%E -5.32%K -46.26%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -1.90%E -0.111%K -0.118%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-04 22:19
TAB🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.50%EV -6.85%E -6.11%K -57.05%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -1.90%E -0.111%K -0.118%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -6.02%E -0.709%K -0.803%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-04 21:39
888sport🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.93%EV -6.85%E -6.11%K -57.05%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -1.90%E -0.111%K -0.118%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-04 22:00
William Hill🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.93%EV -6.85%E -6.11%K -57.05%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -1.90%E -0.111%K -0.118%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-04 22:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.93%EV -6.85%E -6.11%K -57.05%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -1.90%E -0.111%K -0.118%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-04 22:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.93%EV -6.85%E -6.11%K -57.05%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -1.90%E -0.111%K -0.118%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-04 22:00
Grosvenor🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.62%EV -7.68%E -6.92%K -69.80%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -1.90%E -0.111%K -0.118%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV -6.02%E -0.709%K -0.803%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-04 22:15
Codere (IT)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.63%EV -5.18%E -4.55%K -37.02%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.89%EV -7.67%E -0.479%K -0.511%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.49%EV -9.34%E -1.14%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-04 22:00
Bovada🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.21%EV -6.85%E -6.11%K -57.05%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.82%EV -7.67%E -0.479%K -0.511%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.96%EV -6.02%E -0.709%K -0.803%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-04 22:14
BetRivers🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.77%EV -7.68%E -6.92%K -69.80%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.74%EV -7.67%E -0.479%K -0.511%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.48%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-04 22:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 82.90%EV -8.51%E -7.74%K -85.09%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.70%EV -7.67%E -0.479%K -0.511%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.40%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%9.7%2026-11-04 22:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 82.90%EV -8.51%E -7.74%K -85.09%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.70%EV -7.67%E -0.479%K -0.511%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.40%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%9.7%2026-11-04 22:15
TABtouch🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 82.90%EV -8.51%E -7.74%K -85.09%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.70%EV -7.67%E -0.479%K -0.511%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.40%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%9.7%2026-11-04 22:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 83.03%EV -9.34%E -8.57%K -103.79%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.66%EV -7.67%E -0.479%K -0.511%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.31%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%10.5%2026-11-04 22:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 84.33%EV -11.00%E -10.28%K -157.21%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.64%EV -7.67%E -0.479%K -0.511%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.03%EV -0.497%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%10.8%2026-11-04 22:25
BoyleSports🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -5.18%E -4.55%K -37.02%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -13.44%E -0.896%K -0.960%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-04 22:00
LeoVegas🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.76%EV -6.01%E -5.32%K -46.26%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV -13.44%E -0.896%K -0.960%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -6.02%E -0.709%K -0.803%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-04 22:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.32%EV -6.01%E -5.32%K -46.26%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.20%EV -13.44%E -0.896%K -0.960%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.48%EV -10.45%E -1.29%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-04 13:45
Bet Right🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.20%EV -6.01%E -5.32%K -46.26%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -13.44%E -0.896%K -0.960%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-04 22:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.20%EV -6.01%E -5.32%K -46.26%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -13.44%E -0.896%K -0.960%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-04 22:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 81.89%EV -6.01%E -5.32%K -46.26%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.17%EV -13.44%E -0.896%K -0.960%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.94%EV -14.32%E -1.85%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-04 22:00
FanDuel🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.02%EV -7.68%E -6.92%K -69.80%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV -13.44%E -0.896%K -0.960%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.84%EV -6.02%E -0.709%K -0.803%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-04 22:15
PMU (FR)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 82.85%EV -10.17%E -9.42%K -127.16%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.97%EV -13.44%E -0.896%K -0.960%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.18%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%11.8%2026-11-04 22:15
BetMGM🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.28%EV -3.52%E -3.03%K -21.99%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.82%EV -19.21%E -1.37%K -1.48%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.91%EV -3.26%E -0.373%K -0.421%G +0.000%4.8%2026-11-04 22:15
Paddy Power🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 83.04%EV -10.17%E -9.42%K -127.16%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.41%EV -19.21%E -1.37%K -1.48%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.55%EV -6.02%E -0.709%K -0.803%G +0.000%11.5%2026-11-04 22:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 83.04%EV -10.17%E -9.42%K -127.16%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.41%EV -19.21%E -1.37%K -1.48%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.55%EV -6.02%E -0.709%K -0.803%G +0.000%11.5%2026-11-04 22:20
betfred_uk🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.94%EV -6.85%E -6.11%K -57.05%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.97%EV -24.98%E -1.92%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -17.08%E -2.28%K -2.63%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-04 18:14
Winamax (DE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.01%EV -7.68%E -6.92%K -69.80%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.28%EV -27.86%E -2.23%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.71%EV -6.02%E -0.709%K -0.803%G +0.000%9.9%2026-11-04 22:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 79.97%EV -9.34%E -8.57%K -103.79%G +0.000%12.25I 8.16%NM 7.12%EV -29.31%E -2.39%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 12.91%EV -25.37%E -3.76%K -4.41%G +0.000%14.7%2026-11-04 22:19
Sky Bet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 81.49%EV -9.34%E -8.57%K -103.79%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.40%EV -30.75%E -2.56%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.10%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%12.6%2026-11-04 22:17
Winamax (FR)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 80.04%EV -9.34%E -8.57%K -103.79%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 7.93%EV -36.52%E -3.32%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.03%EV -19.84%E -2.74%K -3.18%G +0.000%14.6%2026-11-04 22:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 77.24%EV -11.00%E -10.28%K -157.21%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.26%EV -42.29%E -4.23%K -4.70%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 14.50%EV -36.98%E -6.49%K -7.87%G +0.000%21.0%2026-11-04 21:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.15I 86.96%NM 86.26%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.72%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.02%0.8%2026-11-04 22:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.15I 86.96%NM 86.26%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.72%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.02%0.8%2026-11-04 22:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.15I 86.96%NM 86.26%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.72%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.02%0.8%2026-11-04 22:25
Smarkets◎1.15I 86.96%NM 86.06%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.95%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.00%1.0%2026-11-04 22:25
Kalshi◎1.16I 86.21%NM 85.18%18.18I 5.50%NM 5.44%10.53I 9.50%NM 9.38%1.2%2026-11-04 22:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.15I 86.96%NM 85.89%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.70%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.41%1.2%2026-11-04 22:15

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