La escuela de los momios

Flamengo v Bahia

Inicio: 2026-04-19 22:30 UTC

Final: Flamengo 2–0 Bahia

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Flamengo (Local)

Predicción 64.48%1.55momio equitativo
EV -3.28%
Ventaja -2.18%
Kelly -6.55%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
60.85%64.55%64.42%68.84%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.321.421.441.5075.76%70.22%69.44%66.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Bahia (Visitante)

Predicción 14.58%6.86momio equitativo
EV +23.90%
Ventaja +2.81%
Kelly +3.19%
Crecimiento +0.762%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 8.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
11.41%14.42%14.63%16.28%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.406.766.508.5018.52%14.80%15.38%11.76%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 20.94%4.78momio equitativo
EV +2.61%
Ventaja +0.533%
Kelly +0.670%
Crecimiento +0.018%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.61%21.03%20.95%23.66%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.604.474.504.9027.78%22.38%22.22%20.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)1.41I 70.92%NM 68.79%EV -9.08%E -6.44%K -22.15%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.41%EV +23.90%E +2.81%K +3.19%G +0.762%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.80%EV +2.61%E +0.533%K +0.670%G +0.018%3.1%2026-04-19 22:25
Svenska Spel1.41I 70.92%NM 68.79%EV -9.08%E -6.44%K -22.15%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.41%EV +23.90%E +2.81%K +3.19%G +0.762%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.80%EV +2.61%E +0.533%K +0.670%G +0.018%3.1%2026-04-19 22:25
BetRivers1.38I 72.46%NM 68.21%EV -11.01%E -7.98%K -28.99%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV +16.61%E +2.08%K +2.37%G +0.394%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -1.58%E -0.335%K -0.426%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-19 22:05
Unibet1.37I 72.99%NM 68.51%EV -11.66%E -8.51%K -31.51%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV +16.61%E +2.08%K +2.37%G +0.394%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -0.528%E -0.111%K -0.141%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-19 22:25
Unibet (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 68.67%EV -12.30%E -9.05%K -34.18%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV +16.61%E +2.08%K +2.37%G +0.394%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.66%EV -0.528%E -0.111%K -0.141%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-19 22:25
Grosvenor1.36I 73.53%NM 68.67%EV -12.30%E -9.05%K -34.18%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV +16.61%E +2.08%K +2.37%G +0.394%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.66%EV -0.528%E -0.111%K -0.141%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-19 22:25
Casumo1.36I 73.53%NM 68.67%EV -12.30%E -9.05%K -34.18%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV +16.61%E +2.08%K +2.37%G +0.394%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.66%EV -0.528%E -0.111%K -0.141%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-19 22:25
Unibet (NL)1.36I 73.53%NM 68.67%EV -12.30%E -9.05%K -34.18%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV +16.61%E +2.08%K +2.37%G +0.394%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.66%EV -0.528%E -0.111%K -0.141%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-19 22:25
betPARX1.36I 73.53%NM 68.67%EV -12.30%E -9.05%K -34.18%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV +16.61%E +2.08%K +2.37%G +0.394%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.66%EV -0.528%E -0.111%K -0.141%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-19 22:25
LeoVegas (SE)1.35I 74.07%NM 68.68%EV -12.95%E -9.59%K -37.00%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.59%EV +16.61%E +2.08%K +2.37%G +0.394%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.73%EV -1.58%E -0.335%K -0.426%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-19 22:25
LeoVegas1.34I 74.63%NM 68.84%EV -13.59%E -10.14%K -39.98%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.53%EV +16.61%E +2.08%K +2.37%G +0.394%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.63%EV -1.58%E -0.335%K -0.426%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-19 22:25
TABtouch1.33I 75.19%NM 68.71%EV -14.24%E -10.71%K -43.15%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV +16.61%E +2.08%K +2.37%G +0.394%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -3.67%E -0.798%K -1.02%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-19 22:25
PMU (FR)1.33I 75.19%NM 68.71%EV -14.24%E -10.71%K -43.15%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV +16.61%E +2.08%K +2.37%G +0.394%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -3.67%E -0.798%K -1.02%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-19 22:25
Virgin Bet1.32I 75.76%NM 68.35%EV -14.88%E -11.28%K -46.51%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV +9.32%E +1.24%K +1.43%G +0.134%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -3.67%E -0.798%K -1.02%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-19 22:25
LiveScore Bet1.32I 75.76%NM 68.35%EV -14.88%E -11.28%K -46.51%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV +9.32%E +1.24%K +1.43%G +0.134%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -3.67%E -0.798%K -1.02%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-19 22:25
Pinnacle1.47I 68.03%NM 65.76%EV -5.21%E -3.55%K -11.09%G +0.000%7.14I 14.01%NM 13.54%EV +4.08%E +0.571%K +0.664%G +0.027%4.67I 21.41%NM 20.70%EV -2.20%E -0.472%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-19 22:20
1xBet1.48I 67.57%NM 65.46%EV -4.57%E -3.09%K -9.51%G +0.000%7.07I 14.14%NM 13.70%EV +3.06%E +0.432%K +0.503%G +0.015%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.84%EV -2.62%E -0.564%K -0.718%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-19 22:20
LowVig.ag1.44I 69.44%NM 65.97%EV -7.15%E -4.96%K -16.24%G +0.000%7.03I 14.22%NM 13.51%EV +2.47%E +0.352%K +0.410%G +0.010%4.63I 21.60%NM 20.52%EV -3.04%E -0.657%K -0.838%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-19 22:25
BetOnline.ag1.44I 69.44%NM 65.97%EV -7.15%E -4.96%K -16.24%G +0.000%7.03I 14.22%NM 13.51%EV +2.47%E +0.352%K +0.410%G +0.010%4.63I 21.60%NM 20.52%EV -3.04%E -0.657%K -0.838%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-19 22:25
BetAnything1.44I 69.44%NM 65.97%EV -7.15%E -4.96%K -16.24%G +0.000%7.03I 14.22%NM 13.51%EV +2.47%E +0.352%K +0.410%G +0.010%4.63I 21.60%NM 20.52%EV -3.04%E -0.657%K -0.838%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-19 22:25
SportsBet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.54%EV -7.15%E -4.96%K -16.24%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +2.04%E +0.291%K +0.339%G +0.007%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -5.76%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-19 22:05
FanDuel1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -9.73%E -6.95%K -24.31%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV +2.04%E +0.291%K +0.339%G +0.007%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -5.76%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-19 22:05
Coolbet1.50I 66.67%NM 63.55%EV -3.28%E -2.18%K -6.55%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.02%EV -0.880%E -0.129%K -0.152%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.43%EV -11.00%E -2.59%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-19 14:09
Bovada1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -7.15%E -4.96%K -16.24%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.91%EV -1.61%E -0.238%K -0.280%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -5.76%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-19 22:17
BetUS1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -7.15%E -4.96%K -16.24%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.91%EV -1.61%E -0.238%K -0.280%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -5.76%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-19 22:20
Everygame1.45I 68.97%NM 64.53%EV -6.50%E -4.48%K -14.45%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.86%EV -1.61%E -0.238%K -0.280%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.61%EV -9.32%E -2.15%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-19 22:10
Marathon Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 65.24%EV -7.79%E -5.45%K -18.12%G +0.000%6.65I 15.04%NM 14.03%EV -3.07%E -0.461%K -0.543%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -5.76%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 22:25
Fanatics1.48I 67.57%NM 64.24%EV -4.57%E -3.09%K -9.51%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.63%EV -5.25%E -0.808%K -0.955%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.13%EV -5.76%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-19 21:25
DraftKings1.48I 67.57%NM 63.94%EV -4.57%E -3.09%K -9.51%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -5.25%E -0.808%K -0.955%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.51%EV -7.86%E -1.79%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-19 22:01
Unibet (UK)1.45I 68.97%NM 64.71%EV -6.50%E -4.48%K -14.45%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -5.25%E -0.808%K -0.955%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -5.76%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-19 22:15
Bet Victor1.44I 69.44%NM 64.87%EV -7.15%E -4.96%K -16.24%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -5.25%E -0.808%K -0.955%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -5.76%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-19 22:20
Betway1.45I 68.97%NM 64.19%EV -6.50%E -4.48%K -14.45%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.32%EV -5.25%E -0.808%K -0.955%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.49%EV -9.32%E -2.15%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-19 22:04
Paddy Power1.40I 71.43%NM 64.57%EV -9.73%E -6.95%K -24.31%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -5.25%E -0.808%K -0.955%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -12.05%E -2.87%K -3.76%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-19 22:05
Codere (IT)1.47I 68.03%NM 64.25%EV -5.21%E -3.55%K -11.09%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.76%EV -6.71%E -1.05%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.99%EV -5.76%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-19 22:15
Betsson1.46I 68.49%NM 64.26%EV -5.86%E -4.01%K -12.73%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.66%EV -6.71%E -1.05%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.08%EV -6.81%E -1.53%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-19 22:05
NordicBet1.46I 68.49%NM 64.26%EV -5.86%E -4.01%K -12.73%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.66%EV -6.71%E -1.05%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.08%EV -6.81%E -1.53%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-19 22:00
GTbets1.49I 67.11%NM 63.69%EV -3.92%E -2.63%K -8.00%G +0.000%6.31I 15.85%NM 15.04%EV -8.02%E -1.27%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.46I 22.42%NM 21.28%EV -6.60%E -1.48%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-19 22:20
BetMGM1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.57%E -3.09%K -9.51%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.19%EV -8.90%E -1.42%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.64%EV -3.67%E -0.798%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-19 22:20
PointsBet (AU)1.45I 68.97%NM 64.34%EV -6.50%E -4.48%K -14.45%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.93%EV -8.90%E -1.42%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -5.76%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 22:05
Betr (AU)1.45I 68.97%NM 63.73%EV -6.50%E -4.48%K -14.45%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.78%EV -8.90%E -1.42%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -9.95%E -2.31%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-19 22:25
PlayUp1.45I 68.97%NM 63.73%EV -6.50%E -4.48%K -14.45%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.78%EV -8.90%E -1.42%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -9.95%E -2.31%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-19 22:05
Tipico (DE)1.42I 70.42%NM 64.74%EV -8.44%E -5.94%K -20.08%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.83%EV -9.63%E -1.55%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -5.76%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-19 22:25
Coral1.48I 67.57%NM 63.76%EV -4.57%E -3.09%K -9.51%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -12.54%E -2.09%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -3.67%E -0.798%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-19 22:20
Ladbrokes (UK)1.48I 67.57%NM 63.76%EV -4.57%E -3.09%K -9.51%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -12.54%E -2.09%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -3.67%E -0.798%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-19 22:20
Bet Right1.46I 68.49%NM 63.49%EV -5.86%E -4.01%K -12.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -12.54%E -2.09%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.07%EV -7.86%E -1.79%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-19 22:25
BoyleSports1.44I 69.44%NM 63.59%EV -7.15%E -4.96%K -16.24%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -12.54%E -2.09%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -9.32%E -2.15%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-19 22:20
betfred_uk1.44I 69.44%NM 63.59%EV -7.15%E -4.96%K -16.24%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -12.54%E -2.09%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -9.32%E -2.15%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-19 22:05
888sport1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -7.15%E -4.96%K -16.24%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -12.54%E -2.09%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -16.23%E -4.06%K -5.41%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-19 12:00
William Hill1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -7.15%E -4.96%K -16.24%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -12.54%E -2.09%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -16.23%E -4.06%K -5.41%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-19 12:00
888sport (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -7.15%E -4.96%K -16.24%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -12.54%E -2.09%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -16.23%E -4.06%K -5.41%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-19 12:00
Mr Green (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -7.15%E -4.96%K -16.24%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -12.54%E -2.09%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -16.23%E -4.06%K -5.41%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-19 12:00
Sky Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 63.16%EV -9.73%E -6.95%K -24.31%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.74%EV -12.54%E -2.09%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -16.23%E -4.06%K -5.41%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-19 22:05
Betclic (FR)1.41I 70.92%NM 63.50%EV -9.08%E -6.44%K -22.15%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.18%EV -14.00%E -2.37%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.32%EV -12.05%E -2.87%K -3.76%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-19 22:20
Unibet (FR)1.40I 71.43%NM 63.83%EV -9.73%E -6.95%K -24.31%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.15%EV -14.00%E -2.37%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.03%EV -11.00%E -2.59%K -3.38%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-19 22:15
Neds1.48I 67.57%NM 63.13%EV -4.57%E -3.09%K -9.51%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV -15.46%E -2.66%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -5.76%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 22:19
Ladbrokes (AU)1.48I 67.57%NM 63.13%EV -4.57%E -3.09%K -9.51%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV -15.46%E -2.66%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -5.76%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 22:20
Winamax (DE)1.43I 69.93%NM 63.75%EV -7.79%E -5.45%K -18.12%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.99%EV -16.91%E -2.97%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -5.76%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-19 22:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 60.85%EV -9.73%E -6.95%K -24.31%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.49%EV -19.83%E -3.61%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.66%EV -24.61%E -6.84%K -9.47%G +0.000%17.4%2026-04-19 22:01
Winamax (FR)1.40I 71.43%NM 62.79%EV -9.73%E -6.95%K -24.31%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.28%EV -21.29%E -3.94%K -4.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.93%EV -12.05%E -2.87%K -3.76%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-19 22:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.49I 67.11%NM 66.88%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.78%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.34%0.3%2026-04-19 22:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.49I 67.11%NM 66.66%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.07%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.27%0.7%2026-04-19 22:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.49I 67.11%NM 66.66%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.07%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.27%0.7%2026-04-19 22:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.49I 67.11%NM 66.66%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.07%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.27%0.7%2026-04-19 22:25
Smarkets1.48I 67.57%NM 66.30%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.26%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.44%1.9%2026-04-19 22:25
Kalshi1.47I 68.03%NM 65.39%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.41%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.19%4.0%2026-04-19 22:15