La escuela de los momios

Cruzeiro v Atletico Mineiro

Inicio: 2026-05-03 00:00 UTC

Final: Cruzeiro 1–3 Atletico Mineiro

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Cruzeiro (Local)

Predicción 51.02%1.96momio equitativo
EV -2.04%
Ventaja -1.06%
Kelly -2.21%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.92

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
49.52%51.13%50.99%52.58%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.731.821.831.9257.80%54.88%54.64%52.08%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Atletico Mineiro (Visitante)

Predicción 20.56%4.86momio equitativo
EV -0.264%
Ventaja -0.055%
Kelly -0.069%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.19%20.55%20.50%21.84%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.104.474.504.8524.39%22.37%22.22%20.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 28.41%3.52momio equitativo
EV +0.300%
Ventaja +0.085%
Kelly +0.119%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.53

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.96%28.32%28.51%29.85%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.303.303.5334.72%30.32%30.30%28.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
BetOnline.ag1.81I 55.25%NM 52.58%EV -7.65%E -4.23%K -9.44%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.47%EV -4.38%E -0.941%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.96%EV +0.300%E +0.085%K +0.119%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 22:40
LowVig.ag1.81I 55.25%NM 52.58%EV -7.65%E -4.23%K -9.44%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.47%EV -4.38%E -0.941%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.96%EV +0.300%E +0.085%K +0.119%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 22:40
BetAnything1.81I 55.25%NM 52.58%EV -7.65%E -4.23%K -9.44%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.47%EV -4.38%E -0.941%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.96%EV +0.300%E +0.085%K +0.119%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 22:40
ATG (SE)1.89I 52.91%NM 51.02%EV -3.57%E -1.89%K -4.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.43%EV -7.46%E -1.66%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.55%EV -0.552%E -0.158%K -0.221%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-02 23:50
Svenska Spel1.89I 52.91%NM 51.02%EV -3.57%E -1.89%K -4.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.43%EV -7.46%E -1.66%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.55%EV -0.552%E -0.158%K -0.221%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-02 23:55
1xBet1.90I 52.63%NM 51.11%EV -3.06%E -1.61%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.61I 21.69%NM 21.06%EV -5.20%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.82%EV -0.836%E -0.240%K -0.336%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-02 23:55
GTbets1.92I 52.08%NM 50.41%EV -2.04%E -1.06%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.46I 22.42%NM 21.70%EV -8.28%E -1.86%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.89%EV -1.40%E -0.405%K -0.569%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-02 23:10
Pinnacle1.85I 54.05%NM 52.15%EV -5.61%E -3.03%K -6.60%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.89%EV -0.264%E -0.055%K -0.069%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.96%EV -1.97%E -0.572%K -0.805%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-02 23:50
Coral1.85I 54.05%NM 51.38%EV -5.61%E -3.03%K -6.60%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.66%EV -5.41%E -1.18%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.96%EV -3.39%E -0.998%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-02 23:10
Fanatics1.83I 54.64%NM 51.42%EV -6.63%E -3.62%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -7.46%E -1.66%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.67%EV -3.39%E -0.998%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 23:15
Unibet1.84I 54.35%NM 51.04%EV -6.12%E -3.33%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV -9.52%E -2.16%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -3.39%E -0.998%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-02 23:25
Bet Victor1.80I 55.56%NM 52.06%EV -8.16%E -4.53%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -5.41%E -1.18%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -3.39%E -0.998%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 23:50
Unibet (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.17%EV -6.63%E -3.62%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -9.52%E -2.16%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -3.39%E -0.998%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 23:24
Unibet (NL)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.17%EV -6.63%E -3.62%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -9.52%E -2.16%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -3.39%E -0.998%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 23:24
Grosvenor1.83I 54.64%NM 51.17%EV -6.63%E -3.62%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -9.52%E -2.16%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -3.39%E -0.998%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 23:24
Casumo1.83I 54.64%NM 51.17%EV -6.63%E -3.62%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -9.52%E -2.16%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -3.39%E -0.998%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 23:24
betPARX1.83I 54.64%NM 51.17%EV -6.63%E -3.62%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -9.52%E -2.16%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -3.39%E -0.998%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 23:24
BetRivers1.83I 54.64%NM 51.05%EV -6.63%E -3.62%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -10.55%E -2.42%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.48%EV -3.39%E -0.998%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 23:25
Bet Right1.84I 54.35%NM 50.45%EV -6.12%E -3.33%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.84%EV -12.60%E -2.97%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.71%EV -4.81%E -1.44%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-02 23:55
LeoVegas (SE)1.81I 55.25%NM 50.99%EV -7.65%E -4.23%K -9.44%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.46%EV -11.57%E -2.69%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.55%EV -4.81%E -1.44%K -2.05%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-02 23:45
Coolbet1.88I 53.19%NM 50.68%EV -4.08%E -2.17%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.58I 21.83%NM 20.80%EV -5.82%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.52%EV -5.10%E -1.53%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-02 21:50
DraftKings1.87I 53.48%NM 50.68%EV -4.59%E -2.45%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.60%EV -5.41%E -1.18%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.72%EV -6.24%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-02 23:50
SportsBet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.55%EV -6.63%E -3.62%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -2.32%E -0.489%K -0.619%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -6.24%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 23:50
Codere (IT)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.95%EV -5.61%E -3.03%K -6.60%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.49%EV -5.41%E -1.18%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -6.24%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-02 23:55
BetMGM1.85I 54.05%NM 50.95%EV -5.61%E -3.03%K -6.60%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.49%EV -5.41%E -1.18%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -6.24%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-02 23:55
Unibet (UK)1.84I 54.35%NM 51.08%EV -6.12%E -3.33%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV -5.41%E -1.18%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.48%EV -6.24%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 23:55
Neds1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -6.63%E -3.62%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -7.46%E -1.66%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -6.24%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 23:10
Ladbrokes (AU)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -6.63%E -3.62%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -7.46%E -1.66%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -6.24%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 23:10
Ladbrokes (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -6.63%E -3.62%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -7.46%E -1.66%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -6.24%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 23:15
PointsBet (AU)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -6.63%E -3.62%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -7.46%E -1.66%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -6.24%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 23:55
Betr (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.23%EV -5.61%E -3.03%K -6.60%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.61%EV -11.57%E -2.69%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.16%EV -6.24%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 23:55
LeoVegas1.81I 55.25%NM 50.78%EV -7.65%E -4.23%K -9.44%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.37%EV -11.57%E -2.69%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -6.24%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 23:55
Winamax (DE)1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -8.16%E -4.53%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.31%EV -11.57%E -2.69%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -6.24%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-02 23:55
BoyleSports1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -8.16%E -4.53%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -13.63%E -3.25%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -6.24%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-02 23:25
PMU (FR)1.79I 55.87%NM 50.93%EV -8.67%E -4.84%K -10.97%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.45%EV -12.60%E -2.97%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -6.24%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-02 23:55
TABtouch1.79I 55.87%NM 50.93%EV -8.67%E -4.84%K -10.97%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.45%EV -12.60%E -2.97%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -6.24%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-02 23:55
Bovada1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -6.63%E -3.62%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.77%EV -2.32%E -0.489%K -0.619%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -7.66%E -2.36%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-02 23:53
BetUS1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -6.63%E -3.62%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.77%EV -2.32%E -0.489%K -0.619%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -7.66%E -2.36%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-02 23:55
Betway1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -5.61%E -3.03%K -6.60%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -7.46%E -1.66%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -7.66%E -2.36%K -3.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 23:50
Everygame1.83I 54.64%NM 51.00%EV -6.63%E -3.62%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.29%EV -5.41%E -1.18%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -7.66%E -2.36%K -3.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 23:50
Marathon Bet1.82I 54.95%NM 51.25%EV -7.14%E -3.92%K -8.71%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.06%EV -4.38%E -0.941%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -7.66%E -2.36%K -3.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 23:55
betfred_uk1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -6.63%E -3.62%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -13.63%E -3.25%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -7.66%E -2.36%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-02 23:54
Virgin Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 50.86%EV -9.69%E -5.47%K -12.58%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.44%EV -13.63%E -3.25%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.70%EV -7.66%E -2.36%K -3.40%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-02 23:55
LiveScore Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 50.86%EV -9.69%E -5.47%K -12.58%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.44%EV -13.63%E -3.25%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.70%EV -7.66%E -2.36%K -3.40%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-02 23:55
FanDuel1.80I 55.56%NM 51.61%EV -8.16%E -4.53%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -1.29%E -0.269%K -0.340%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -9.08%E -2.84%K -4.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 23:55
Tipico (DE)1.77I 56.50%NM 52.03%EV -9.69%E -5.47%K -12.58%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.19%EV -1.29%E -0.269%K -0.340%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.78%EV -9.08%E -2.84%K -4.13%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 23:45
888sport1.80I 55.56%NM 50.96%EV -8.16%E -4.53%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -7.46%E -1.66%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.08%E -2.84%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-02 23:45
Mr Green (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 50.96%EV -8.16%E -4.53%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -7.46%E -1.66%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.08%E -2.84%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-02 23:45
888sport (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 50.96%EV -8.16%E -4.53%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -7.46%E -1.66%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.08%E -2.84%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-02 23:45
William Hill1.80I 55.56%NM 50.96%EV -8.16%E -4.53%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -7.46%E -1.66%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.08%E -2.84%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-02 23:44
NordicBet1.88I 53.19%NM 49.52%EV -4.08%E -2.17%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.92%EV -8.49%E -1.91%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.56%EV -10.50%E -3.33%K -4.88%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 23:50
Betsson1.88I 53.19%NM 49.52%EV -4.08%E -2.17%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.92%EV -8.49%E -1.91%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.56%EV -10.50%E -3.33%K -4.88%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 23:50
PlayUp1.87I 53.48%NM 49.54%EV -4.59%E -2.45%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.05%EV -9.52%E -2.16%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -10.50%E -3.33%K -4.88%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-02 23:50
Unibet (FR)1.74I 57.47%NM 51.22%EV -11.22%E -6.45%K -15.16%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.49%EV -10.55%E -2.42%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.29%EV -10.50%E -3.33%K -4.88%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-02 23:55
Winamax (FR)1.74I 57.47%NM 50.59%EV -11.22%E -6.45%K -15.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.47%EV -15.69%E -3.83%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.94%EV -10.50%E -3.33%K -4.88%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-02 23:55
Betclic (FR)1.75I 57.14%NM 50.98%EV -10.71%E -6.12%K -14.28%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.51%EV -10.55%E -2.42%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 28.51%EV -11.07%E -3.54%K -5.20%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-02 23:55
Paddy Power1.75I 57.14%NM 51.19%EV -10.71%E -6.12%K -14.28%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.91%EV -7.46%E -1.66%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -11.92%E -3.84%K -5.68%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-02 23:50
Sky Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 50.31%EV -10.71%E -6.12%K -14.28%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.34%EV -10.96%E -2.53%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.35%EV -14.76%E -4.92%K -7.38%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-02 23:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 49.69%EV -11.73%E -6.78%K -16.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.47%EV -13.63%E -3.25%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.85%EV -18.17%E -6.31%K -9.66%G +0.000%16.3%2026-05-02 23:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 52.38%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.78%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.85%0.5%2026-05-02 23:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.90I 52.63%NM 52.38%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.78%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.85%0.5%2026-05-02 23:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.90I 52.63%NM 52.38%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.78%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.85%0.5%2026-05-02 23:45
Matchbook1.89I 52.91%NM 52.51%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.72%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.77%0.8%2026-05-02 23:45
Smarkets1.89I 52.91%NM 52.29%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.65%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.07%1.2%2026-05-02 23:50
Kalshi1.89I 52.91%NM 51.93%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.63%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.45%1.9%2026-05-02 23:50