The School of Odds
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Coritiba v Grêmio

Kickoff: 2026-10-26 22:30 UTC

Final: Coritiba 0–1 Grêmio

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Coritiba (Local)

Prediction 41.15%2.43fair odd
EV -0.422%
Edge -0.175%
Kelly -0.297%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.45%41.29%41.12%43.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.232.252.4248.78%44.79%44.44%41.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Grêmio (Visit)

Prediction 30.65%3.26fair odd
EV +2.68%
Edge +0.800%
Kelly +1.14%
Growth +0.031%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.51%30.60%30.61%32.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.063.053.3535.09%32.67%32.79%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.20%3.55fair odd
EV +1.53%
Edge +0.424%
Kelly +0.587%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.51%28.11%28.28%29.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.083.313.303.6032.47%30.20%30.30%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Coritiba (Local): 41.15%; Grêmio (Visit): 30.65%; Draw: 28.20%. For Grêmio (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.26. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.68%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.76%EV -8.24%E -3.70%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.13%EV +2.68%E +0.800%K +1.14%G +0.031%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.11%EV +1.53%E +0.424%K +0.587%G +0.009%2.5%2026-10-26 22:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.76%EV -8.24%E -3.70%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.13%EV +2.68%E +0.800%K +1.14%G +0.031%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.11%EV +1.53%E +0.424%K +0.587%G +0.009%2.5%2026-10-26 22:25
Coolbet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.89%EV -8.65%E -3.90%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.51%EV +2.37%E +0.710%K +1.01%G +0.024%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.60%EV -6.09%E -1.83%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-25 12:15
GTbets🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.56%EV -10.71%E -4.94%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.73%EV +0.840%E +0.255%K +0.367%G +0.003%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.72%EV -3.83%E -1.12%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-26 06:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -11.53%E -5.36%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -1.92%E -0.599%K -0.872%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.11%E -1.21%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-26 21:45
Casumo🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -11.53%E -5.36%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -1.92%E -0.599%K -0.872%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.11%E -1.21%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-26 21:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -11.53%E -5.36%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -1.92%E -0.599%K -0.872%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.11%E -1.21%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-26 21:45
Unibet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -11.53%E -5.36%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -1.92%E -0.599%K -0.872%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.11%E -1.21%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-26 21:45
betPARX🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -11.53%E -5.36%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -1.92%E -0.599%K -0.872%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.11%E -1.21%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-26 21:45
Pinnacle🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.87%EV -2.48%E -1.05%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.65%EV -3.14%E -0.995%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.49%EV -4.11%E -1.21%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-26 22:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.93%EV -2.89%E -1.23%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.57%EV -3.14%E -0.995%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.50%EV -4.40%E -1.30%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-26 22:15
BetOnline.ag🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.93%EV -2.89%E -1.23%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.57%EV -3.14%E -0.995%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.50%EV -4.40%E -1.30%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-26 22:15
BetAnything🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.93%EV -2.89%E -1.23%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.57%EV -3.14%E -0.995%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.50%EV -4.40%E -1.30%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-26 22:15
Grosvenor🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.37%EV -12.77%E -6.02%K -11.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.19%EV -3.45%E -1.10%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -5.52%E -1.65%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-26 21:45
Marathon Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.67%EV -10.30%E -4.72%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.81%EV -4.37%E -1.40%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.52%EV -4.68%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-26 21:35
BetUS🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 40.39%EV -0.834%E -0.346%K -0.591%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.40%EV -4.98%E -1.61%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.21%EV -2.70%E -0.784%K -1.10%G +0.000%2.7%2026-10-26 22:25
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -5.36%E -2.33%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.68%EV -4.98%E -1.61%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -4.11%E -1.21%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-26 22:15
Codere (IT)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.36%E -2.33%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -4.98%E -1.61%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -5.52%E -1.65%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-26 22:14
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -5.36%E -2.33%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.98%E -1.61%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -6.93%E -2.10%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-26 22:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -5.36%E -2.33%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.98%E -1.61%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -6.93%E -2.10%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-26 22:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -9.47%E -4.31%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -4.98%E -1.61%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -6.93%E -2.10%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-26 22:25
BetRivers🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -13.59%E -6.47%K -12.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -4.98%E -1.61%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -6.93%E -2.10%K -3.02%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-26 21:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -13.59%E -6.47%K -12.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -4.98%E -1.61%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -8.34%E -2.57%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-26 21:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -13.59%E -6.47%K -12.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -4.98%E -1.61%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -8.34%E -2.57%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-26 21:45
TABtouch🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -13.59%E -6.47%K -12.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -4.98%E -1.61%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -8.34%E -2.57%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-26 21:45
1xBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.70%EV -0.422%E -0.175%K -0.297%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 31.09%EV -5.29%E -1.71%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.20%EV -7.22%E -2.19%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-26 22:24
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.62%EV -3.30%E -1.41%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.30%EV -6.52%E -2.14%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.08%EV -4.11%E -1.21%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-26 22:15
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.51%EV -7.42%E -3.30%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -6.52%E -2.14%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -5.52%E -1.65%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-26 22:25
Betsson🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.83%EV -6.18%E -2.71%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV -6.52%E -2.14%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -8.34%E -2.57%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-26 22:14
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.33%EV -7.42%E -3.30%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.49%EV -6.52%E -2.14%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.18%EV -6.93%E -2.10%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-26 22:14
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.33%EV -7.42%E -3.30%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.49%EV -6.52%E -2.14%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.18%EV -6.93%E -2.10%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-26 22:25
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.97%EV -7.42%E -3.30%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.52%E -2.14%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -9.75%E -3.05%K -4.43%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-26 22:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.07%EV -14.41%E -6.93%K -13.35%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.37%EV -6.52%E -2.14%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.56%EV -8.34%E -2.57%K -3.71%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-26 22:25
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.24%EV -3.30%E -1.41%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -8.05%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.23%EV -5.52%E -1.65%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-26 22:25
LeoVegas🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.07%EV -3.30%E -1.41%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -8.05%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -6.93%E -2.10%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-26 22:25
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -5.36%E -2.33%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -8.05%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.93%E -2.10%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-26 22:14
TAB🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -5.36%E -2.33%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -8.05%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -8.34%E -2.57%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-26 22:14
PlayUp🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.63%EV -6.18%E -2.71%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.87%EV -8.05%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.50%EV -8.34%E -2.57%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-26 22:15
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -7.42%E -3.30%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -8.05%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -6.93%E -2.10%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-26 22:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -7.42%E -3.30%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.05%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.75%E -3.05%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-26 22:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -7.42%E -3.30%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.05%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.75%E -3.05%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-26 22:10
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -7.42%E -3.30%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.05%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.75%E -3.05%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-26 22:10
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -9.47%E -4.31%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -8.05%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -8.34%E -2.57%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-26 22:25
PMU (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.03%EV -15.65%E -7.63%K -14.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.40%EV -8.05%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.57%EV -9.75%E -3.05%K -4.43%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-26 22:25
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -13.59%E -6.47%K -12.35%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -9.58%E -3.25%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -4.11%E -1.21%K -1.71%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-26 22:25
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.63%EV -15.65%E -7.63%K -14.90%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.62%EV -9.58%E -3.25%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.74%EV -11.16%E -3.54%K -5.19%G +0.000%14.4%2026-10-26 22:14
Bet Victor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.67%EV -2.07%E -0.869%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -11.11%E -3.83%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.77%EV -4.11%E -1.21%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-26 22:24
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -5.36%E -2.33%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -11.11%E -3.83%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -12.57%E -4.06%K -5.99%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-26 22:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -9.47%E -4.31%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -11.11%E -3.83%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -6.93%E -2.10%K -3.02%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-26 22:14
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.44%EV -11.53%E -5.36%K -10.03%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -11.11%E -3.83%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.84%EV -9.75%E -3.05%K -4.43%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-26 21:55
betano_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -2.07%E -0.869%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -11.73%E -4.07%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -4.11%E -1.21%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-26 22:25
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.25%EV -7.42%E -3.30%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.45%EV -11.73%E -4.07%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -9.75%E -3.05%K -4.43%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-26 22:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.25%EV -7.42%E -3.30%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.45%EV -11.73%E -4.07%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -9.75%E -3.05%K -4.43%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-26 22:25
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.97%EV -9.47%E -4.31%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.30%EV -11.73%E -4.07%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -8.34%E -2.57%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-26 22:25
Betclic (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.43%EV -13.59%E -6.47%K -12.35%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.32%EV -12.03%E -4.19%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 28.25%EV -13.14%E -4.27%K -6.32%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-26 22:14
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.39%EV -11.53%E -5.36%K -10.03%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.23%EV -12.65%E -4.44%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.38%EV -8.34%E -2.57%K -3.71%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-26 22:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.42%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.57%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.01%0.6%2026-10-26 22:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.42%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.57%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.01%0.6%2026-10-26 22:25
Smarkets◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.26%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.44%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.30%1.0%2026-10-26 22:25
Kalshi◎2.47I 40.49%NM 40.07%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.73%3.51I 28.49%NM 28.20%1.0%2026-10-26 22:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 39.86%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.89%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.25%1.2%2026-10-26 22:25
Matchbook◎2.48I 40.32%NM 39.86%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.89%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.25%1.2%2026-10-26 22:25