Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Coritiba v Botafogo

2026-10-11 22:30 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Coritiba (Local)

Prediction 34.99%2.86fair odd
EV -3.77%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -2.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.68%34.99%34.99%35.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.642.652.7538.46%37.84%37.74%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Botafogo (Visit)

Prediction 37.44%2.67fair odd
EV -4.53%
Edge -1.78%
Kelly -2.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.44%37.44%37.44%37.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.462.482.5541.67%40.69%40.32%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.57%3.63fair odd
EV -2.13%
Edge -0.600%
Kelly -0.835%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.15%27.57%27.57%27.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.373.403.5530.77%29.66%29.41%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Coritiba (Local): 34.99%; Botafogo (Visit): 37.44%; Draw: 27.57%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.63. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.55, with an expected value of -2.13%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.05%EV -3.77%E -1.37%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.80%EV -4.53%E -1.78%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.15%EV -2.13%E -0.600%K -0.835%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-22 09:19
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.05%EV -3.77%E -1.37%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.80%EV -4.53%E -1.78%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.15%EV -2.13%E -0.600%K -0.835%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-22 09:19
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.11%EV -7.27%E -2.74%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -7.15%E -2.88%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -6.27%E -1.84%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-22 09:18
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.11%EV -7.27%E -2.74%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -7.15%E -2.88%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -6.27%E -1.84%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-22 09:19
Unibet (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.11%EV -7.27%E -2.74%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -7.15%E -2.88%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -6.27%E -1.84%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-22 09:19
Unibet (NL)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.11%EV -7.27%E -2.74%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -7.15%E -2.88%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -6.27%E -1.84%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-22 09:19
Grosvenor🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.11%EV -7.27%E -2.74%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -7.15%E -2.88%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -6.27%E -1.84%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-22 09:19
betPARX🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.11%EV -7.27%E -2.74%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -7.15%E -2.88%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -6.27%E -1.84%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-22 09:20
BetRivers🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -9.02%E -3.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.44%EV -9.02%E -3.71%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -9.02%E -2.73%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-22 09:19
Virgin Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.83%EV -9.02%E -3.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.73%EV -10.15%E -4.23%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -9.02%E -2.73%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-22 09:19
LiveScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.83%EV -9.02%E -3.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.73%EV -10.15%E -4.23%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -9.02%E -2.73%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-22 09:19
TABtouch🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.83%EV -9.02%E -3.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.73%EV -10.15%E -4.23%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -9.02%E -2.73%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-22 09:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.68%EV -9.02%E -3.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.57%EV -10.15%E -4.23%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.75%EV -10.40%E -3.20%K -4.62%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-22 09:19
PMU (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.68%EV -9.02%E -3.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.57%EV -10.15%E -4.23%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.75%EV -10.40%E -3.20%K -4.62%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-22 09:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.