The School of Odds
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Chapecoense v Vasco da Gama

Kickoff: 2026-07-31 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chapecoense (Local)

Prediction 28.33%3.53fair odd
EV -3.40%
Edge -0.996%
Kelly -1.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.94%28.58%28.27%30.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.203.303.4134.48%31.23%30.30%29.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vasco da Gama (Visit)

Prediction 43.84%2.28fair odd
EV +0.829%
Edge +0.360%
Kelly +0.638%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.00%43.53%43.82%44.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.962.092.102.3051.02%47.83%47.62%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.83%3.59fair odd
EV -4.26%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -1.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.10%27.89%27.91%28.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.293.303.4432.26%30.37%30.30%29.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chapecoense (Local): 28.33%; Vasco da Gama (Visit): 43.84%; Draw: 27.83%. For Vasco da Gama (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.28. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.829%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Fanatics🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -12.18%E -3.93%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV +0.829%E +0.360%K +0.638%G +0.005%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-25 23:54
Pinnacle🎯3.41I 29.33%NM 27.94%EV -3.40%E -0.996%K -1.41%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.11%EV -5.31%E -2.46%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.94%EV -5.09%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-26 11:25
LeoVegas🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.51%E -1.97%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.75%E -2.67%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-26 10:20
Codere (IT)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -6.51%E -1.97%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.72%EV -6.19%E -2.89%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -6.76%E -2.02%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-26 10:20
GTbets🎯3.37I 29.67%NM 28.02%EV -4.53%E -1.34%K -1.91%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.54%EV -7.06%E -3.33%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.45%EV -4.26%E -1.24%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-26 10:50
betano_uk🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.51%E -1.97%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -7.94%E -3.78%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -5.37%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-26 11:45
Bet Victor🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.51%E -1.97%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -7.94%E -3.78%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -5.37%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-26 11:44
Tipico (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -6.51%E -1.97%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -7.94%E -3.78%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-27 04:40
BoyleSports🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -12.18%E -3.93%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -10.13%E -4.94%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -9.55%E -2.94%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-26 19:05
Winamax (DE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 28.87%EV -13.59%E -4.46%K -6.63%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.03%EV -12.32%E -6.16%K -12.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.10%EV -9.55%E -2.94%K -4.24%G +0.000%13.6%2026-07-26 10:20
Unibet (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.30%EV -12.18%E -3.93%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.86%EV -12.32%E -6.16%K -12.32%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.85%EV -12.33%E -3.91%K -5.74%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-26 10:20
Betclic (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.30%EV -12.18%E -3.93%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.86%EV -12.32%E -6.16%K -12.32%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.85%EV -12.33%E -3.91%K -5.74%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-26 10:19
Winamax (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 29.28%EV -17.84%E -6.15%K -9.39%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 43.33%EV -14.08%E -7.18%K -14.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.39%EV -13.72%E -4.43%K -6.53%G +0.000%17.8%2026-07-26 10:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.12I 32.05%NM 28.61%2.04I 49.02%NM 43.76%3.23I 30.96%NM 27.64%12.0%2026-07-27 03:20

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