Chapecoense v Vasco da Gama

2026-07-31 00:00 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

30%

42%

28%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Chapecoense (Local)

Prediction 29.55%3.38fair odd

EV +3.71%

Edge +1.06%

Kelly +1.48%

Growth +0.055%

assuming max odds 3.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.15%29.26%29.73%30.42%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.853.103.103.5135.09%32.25%32.26%28.49%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Vasco da Gama (Visit)

Prediction 42.25%2.37fair odd

EV -2.83%

Edge -1.23%

Kelly -2.18%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

41.00%42.52%42.16%44.74%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.002.142.152.3050.00%46.65%46.51%43.48%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 28.21%3.55fair odd

EV -4.38%

Edge -1.29%

Kelly -1.83%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.82%28.22%28.11%28.76%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

3.003.213.253.3933.33%31.15%30.77%29.50%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle	3.51I 28.49%NM 27.15%EV +3.71%E +1.06%K +1.48%G +0.055%	2.13I 46.95%NM 44.74%EV -10.01%E -4.70%K -8.86%G +0.000%	3.39I 29.50%NM 28.11%EV -4.38%E -1.29%K -1.83%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-07-26 00:50
LeoVegas	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -5.45%E -1.70%K -2.48%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -6.92%E -2.10%K -3.01%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-07-25 23:55
GTbets	3.13I 31.95%NM 29.40%EV -7.52%E -2.40%K -3.53%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 41.83%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -9.74%E -3.04%K -4.43%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-07-25 23:55
betano_uk	3.12I 32.05%NM 29.73%EV -7.82%E -2.51%K -3.69%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.16%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.11%EV -6.92%E -2.10%K -3.01%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-07-25 23:53
Bet Victor	3.12I 32.05%NM 29.73%EV -7.82%E -2.51%K -3.69%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.16%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.11%EV -6.92%E -2.10%K -3.01%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-07-25 23:53
Fanatics	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -8.41%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -2.83%E -1.23%K -2.18%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -6.92%E -2.10%K -3.01%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-25 23:54
Unibet (FR)	3.05I 32.79%NM 28.67%EV -9.89%E -3.24%K -4.82%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 42.66%EV -13.39%E -6.53%K -12.75%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 28.67%EV -13.97%E -4.58%K -6.81%G +0.000%	14.4%	2026-07-25 23:55
Betclic (FR)	3.03I 33.00%NM 28.86%EV -10.48%E -3.46%K -5.16%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 42.66%EV -13.39%E -6.53%K -12.75%G +0.000%	3.07I 32.57%NM 28.48%EV -13.41%E -4.37%K -6.48%G +0.000%	14.4%	2026-07-25 23:53
BoyleSports	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -11.36%E -3.79%K -5.68%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -9.17%E -4.26%K -7.97%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -8.33%E -2.56%K -3.70%G +0.000%	10.6%	2026-07-25 23:55
Winamax (DE)	3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -11.36%E -3.79%K -5.68%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 42.25%EV -11.28%E -5.37%K -10.25%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 28.17%EV -11.15%E -3.54%K -5.19%G +0.000%	12.7%	2026-07-25 23:55
Winamax (FR)	2.85I 35.09%NM 29.63%EV -15.79%E -5.54%K -8.54%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 42.22%EV -15.50%E -7.75%K -15.50%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 28.15%EV -15.38%E -5.13%K -7.69%G +0.000%	18.4%	2026-07-25 23:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.