The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Chapecoense v Palmeiras

2026-11-24 21:00 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chapecoense (Local)

Prediction 13.05%7.66fair odd
EV +10.92%
Edge +1.28%
Kelly +1.46%
Growth +0.159%

assuming max odds 8.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.52%13.05%13.05%13.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.007.427.508.5014.29%13.47%13.33%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Palmeiras (Visit)

Prediction 66.19%1.51fair odd
EV -5.35%
Edge -3.74%
Kelly -12.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.19%66.19%66.19%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.381.381.4374.63%72.46%72.46%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.76%4.82fair odd
EV +1.72%
Edge +0.352%
Kelly +0.442%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.99%20.76%20.76%20.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.254.524.504.9023.53%22.13%22.22%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Chapecoense (Local): 13.05%; Palmeiras (Visit): 66.19%; Draw: 20.76%. For Chapecoense (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.66. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 8.50, producing a positive expected value of +10.92%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.52%EV +10.92%E +1.28%K +1.46%G +0.159%1.43I 69.93%NM 68.49%EV -5.35%E -3.74%K -12.43%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.99%EV +1.72%E +0.352%K +0.442%G +0.008%2.1%2026-11-14 21:10
Svenska Spel🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.52%EV +10.92%E +1.28%K +1.46%G +0.159%1.43I 69.93%NM 68.49%EV -5.35%E -3.74%K -12.43%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.99%EV +1.72%E +0.352%K +0.442%G +0.008%2.1%2026-11-14 21:10
Unibet🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -2.13%E -0.284%K -0.328%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.39%EV -8.66%E -6.27%K -22.78%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.22%EV -4.50%E -0.979%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-14 21:10
Unibet (NL)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -2.13%E -0.284%K -0.328%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.39%EV -8.66%E -6.27%K -22.78%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.22%EV -4.50%E -0.979%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-14 21:10
Unibet (SE)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -2.13%E -0.284%K -0.328%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.39%EV -8.66%E -6.27%K -22.78%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.22%EV -4.50%E -0.979%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-14 21:10
betPARX🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -2.13%E -0.284%K -0.328%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.39%EV -8.66%E -6.27%K -22.78%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.22%EV -4.50%E -0.979%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-14 21:08
Grosvenor🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.34%EV -2.13%E -0.284%K -0.328%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.08%EV -8.66%E -6.27%K -22.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.57%EV -6.58%E -1.46%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.0%2026-11-14 21:10
BetRivers🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -8.66%E -1.24%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.19%EV -8.66%E -6.27%K -22.78%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.76%EV -8.66%E -1.97%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-14 21:10
Virgin Bet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.96%EV -8.66%E -1.24%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 66.20%EV -9.32%E -6.80%K -25.18%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.85%EV -9.69%E -2.23%K -2.89%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-14 21:10
LiveScore Bet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.96%EV -8.66%E -1.24%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 66.20%EV -9.32%E -6.80%K -25.18%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.85%EV -9.69%E -2.23%K -2.89%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-14 21:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.89%EV -8.66%E -1.24%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.36%EV -9.98%E -7.34%K -27.72%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.75%EV -9.69%E -2.23%K -2.89%G +0.000%10.8%2026-11-14 21:10
TABtouch🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.89%EV -8.66%E -1.24%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.36%EV -9.98%E -7.34%K -27.72%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.75%EV -9.69%E -2.23%K -2.89%G +0.000%10.8%2026-11-14 21:10
PMU (FR)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.70%EV -8.66%E -1.24%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 66.37%EV -11.30%E -8.44%K -33.25%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.93%EV -11.77%E -2.77%K -3.62%G +0.000%12.4%2026-11-14 21:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.83I 54.64%NM 25.56%1.14I 87.72%NM 41.03%1.40I 71.43%NM 33.41%113.8%2026-11-15 00:35

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.