The School of Odds
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Chapecoense v Mirassol

2026-11-03 22:30 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chapecoense (Local)

Prediction 28.48%3.51fair odd
EV -1.76%
Edge -0.509%
Kelly -0.717%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.27%28.48%28.48%28.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.253.273.4532.26%30.74%30.53%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mirassol (Visit)

Prediction 45.11%2.22fair odd
EV -4.36%
Edge -2.06%
Kelly -3.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.11%45.11%45.11%46.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.032.042.1251.28%49.21%49.14%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.41%3.79fair odd
EV +0.369%
Edge +0.097%
Kelly +0.132%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.68%26.41%26.41%26.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.553.553.8029.41%28.14%28.17%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Chapecoense (Local): 28.48%; Mirassol (Visit): 45.11%; Draw: 26.41%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.79. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.80, producing a positive expected value of +0.369%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 28.29%EV -1.76%E -0.509%K -0.717%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.03%EV -4.36%E -2.06%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.68%EV +0.369%E +0.097%K +0.132%G +0.000%2.5%2026-10-24 23:05
ATG (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 28.29%EV -1.76%E -0.509%K -0.717%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.03%EV -4.36%E -2.06%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.68%EV +0.369%E +0.097%K +0.132%G +0.000%2.5%2026-10-24 23:05
Unibet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.03%E -1.83%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -7.52%E -3.67%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -4.91%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-24 23:05
Casumo🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.03%E -1.83%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -7.52%E -3.67%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -4.91%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-24 23:05
Unibet (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.03%E -1.83%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -7.52%E -3.67%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -4.91%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-24 23:05
Unibet (NL)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.03%E -1.83%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -7.52%E -3.67%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -4.91%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-24 23:05
betPARX🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.03%E -1.83%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -7.52%E -3.67%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -4.91%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-24 23:05
Grosvenor🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -7.45%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.48%EV -8.88%E -4.39%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -7.56%E -2.16%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 23:04
BetRivers🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -8.88%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.11%EV -8.88%E -4.39%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.41%EV -8.88%E -2.57%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-24 23:05
Virgin Bet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.67%EV -10.30%E -3.27%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.15%EV -9.78%E -4.89%K -9.78%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.18%EV -8.88%E -2.57%K -3.62%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-24 23:05
TABtouch🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.67%EV -10.30%E -3.27%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.15%EV -9.78%E -4.89%K -9.78%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.18%EV -8.88%E -2.57%K -3.62%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-24 23:05
LiveScore Bet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.67%EV -10.30%E -3.27%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.15%EV -9.78%E -4.89%K -9.78%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.18%EV -8.88%E -2.57%K -3.62%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-24 23:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.47%EV -10.30%E -3.27%K -4.79%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.53%EV -11.13%E -5.65%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.00%EV -8.88%E -2.57%K -3.62%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-24 23:05
PMU (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.56%EV -11.72%E -3.78%K -5.58%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.40%EV -12.03%E -6.17%K -12.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -10.20%E -3.00%K -4.25%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-24 23:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.29I 77.52%NM 40.47%1.29I 77.52%NM 40.47%2.74I 36.50%NM 19.05%91.5%2026-10-25 00:05