The School of OddsChapecoense v Flamengo
Head to Head
Option 1: Chapecoense (Local)
Odds
5.3018.87%Min
6.7114.90%Mean
6.7514.81%Median
7.5013.33%Max
Consensus probabilities
12.23%8.179Min
15.91%6.285Max
13.48%7.419Mean
13.55%7.383Median
13.58%7.365IQM
13.48%7.419Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 7.50 under the IQM model: 13.58%
EV +1.83%Edge +0.245%Kelly +0.282%Growth +0.005%
Option 2: Flamengo (Visit)
Odds
1.3574.07%Min
1.4170.86%Mean
1.3971.94%Median
1.4867.57%Max
Consensus probabilities
62.47%1.601Min
66.93%1.494Max
64.83%1.542Mean
64.82%1.543Median
64.86%1.542IQM
64.84%1.542Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 1.48 under the IQM model: 64.86%
EV -4.00%Edge -2.71%Kelly -8.34%Growth +0.000%
Option 3: Draw
Odds
3.8026.32%Min
4.2223.72%Mean
4.2523.53%Median
4.5122.17%Max
Consensus probabilities
20.84%4.798Min
23.18%4.314Max
21.69%4.610Mean
21.63%4.622Median
21.56%4.638IQM
21.68%4.613Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 4.51 under the IQM model: 21.56%
EV -2.76%Edge -0.612%Kelly -0.787%Growth +0.000%
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Chapecoense (Local) ▼ | Flamengo (Visit) | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Right | 7.50I 13.33% NM 12.43%EV +1.83% E +0.245% K +0.282% G +0.005% | 1.42I 70.42% NM 65.64%EV -7.90% E -5.56% K -18.80% G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53% NM 21.93%EV -8.37% E -1.97% K -2.57% G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-03 04:05 |
| FanDuel | 7.50I 13.33% NM 12.23%EV +1.83% E +0.245% K +0.282% G +0.005% | 1.37I 72.99% NM 66.93%EV -11.14% E -8.13% K -30.11% G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73% NM 20.84%EV -5.13% E -1.17% K -1.51% G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-06-25 20:20 |
| 1xBet | 7.31I 13.68% NM 13.11%EV -0.746% E -0.102% K -0.118% G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03% NM 65.20%EV -4.65% E -3.17% K -9.90% G +0.000% | 4.42I 22.62% NM 21.69%EV -4.70% E -1.06% K -1.37% G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-26 07:58 |
| Tipico (DE) | 7.20I 13.89% NM 12.88%EV -2.24% E -0.311% K -0.361% G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97% NM 63.94%EV -5.95% E -4.10% K -13.22% G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00% NM 23.18%EV -13.76% E -3.44% K -4.59% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-06-26 05:20 |
| Marathon Bet | 7.10I 14.08% NM 13.13%EV -3.60% E -0.507% K -0.590% G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93% NM 65.19%EV -7.25% E -5.07% K -16.86% G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 21.68%EV -7.29% E -1.70% K -2.21% G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-26 08:00 |
| Pinnacle | 7.03I 14.22% NM 13.50%EV -4.55% E -0.647% K -0.754% G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97% NM 65.46%EV -5.95% E -4.10% K -13.22% G +0.000% | 4.51I 22.17% NM 21.04%EV -2.76% E -0.612% K -0.787% G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-26 00:30 |
| Coral | 7.00I 14.29% NM 13.66%EV -4.96% E -0.708% K -0.826% G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57% NM 64.61%EV -4.00% E -2.71% K -8.34% G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73% NM 21.73%EV -5.13% E -1.17% K -1.51% G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-26 05:09 |
| BetMGM | 7.00I 14.29% NM 13.66%EV -4.96% E -0.708% K -0.826% G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57% NM 64.61%EV -4.00% E -2.71% K -8.34% G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73% NM 21.73%EV -5.13% E -1.17% K -1.51% G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-26 05:10 |
| Bovada | 7.00I 14.29% NM 13.66%EV -4.96% E -0.708% K -0.826% G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57% NM 64.61%EV -4.00% E -2.71% K -8.34% G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73% NM 21.73%EV -5.13% E -1.17% K -1.51% G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-28 23:07 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 7.00I 14.29% NM 13.61%EV -4.96% E -0.708% K -0.826% G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57% NM 64.38%EV -4.00% E -2.71% K -8.34% G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09% NM 22.01%EV -6.64% E -1.53% K -1.99% G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-26 05:10 |
| Bet Victor | 7.00I 14.29% NM 13.37%EV -4.96% E -0.708% K -0.826% G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44% NM 65.01%EV -6.60% E -4.58% K -15.00% G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09% NM 21.62%EV -6.64% E -1.53% K -1.99% G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-02 01:28 |
| Paddy Power | 7.00I 14.29% NM 12.80%EV -4.96% E -0.708% K -0.826% G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53% NM 65.87%EV -11.79% E -8.67% K -32.75% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 21.33%EV -9.45% E -2.25% K -2.95% G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-06-25 20:19 |
| Neds | 6.75I 14.81% NM 13.83%EV -8.35% E -1.24% K -1.45% G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49% NM 63.94%EV -5.30% E -3.63% K -11.53% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 22.23%EV -9.45% E -2.25% K -2.95% G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-26 05:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 6.75I 14.81% NM 13.83%EV -8.35% E -1.24% K -1.45% G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49% NM 63.94%EV -5.30% E -3.63% K -11.53% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 22.23%EV -9.45% E -2.25% K -2.95% G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-26 05:09 |
| LiveScore Bet | 6.75I 14.81% NM 13.37%EV -8.35% E -1.24% K -1.45% G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46% NM 65.40%EV -10.49% E -7.60% K -27.61% G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53% NM 21.23%EV -8.37% E -1.97% K -2.57% G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-06-25 03:40 |
| Grosvenor | 6.75I 14.81% NM 13.37%EV -8.35% E -1.24% K -1.45% G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46% NM 65.40%EV -10.49% E -7.60% K -27.61% G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53% NM 21.23%EV -8.37% E -1.97% K -2.57% G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-06-25 03:40 |
| PMU (FR) | 6.75I 14.81% NM 13.37%EV -8.35% E -1.24% K -1.45% G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46% NM 65.40%EV -10.49% E -7.60% K -27.61% G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53% NM 21.23%EV -8.37% E -1.97% K -2.57% G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-06-25 03:39 |
| Unibet (NL) | 6.75I 14.81% NM 13.37%EV -8.35% E -1.24% K -1.45% G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46% NM 65.40%EV -10.49% E -7.60% K -27.61% G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53% NM 21.23%EV -8.37% E -1.97% K -2.57% G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-06-25 03:40 |
| Virgin Bet | 6.75I 14.81% NM 13.37%EV -8.35% E -1.24% K -1.45% G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46% NM 65.40%EV -10.49% E -7.60% K -27.61% G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53% NM 21.23%EV -8.37% E -1.97% K -2.57% G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-06-25 03:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 6.75I 14.81% NM 13.37%EV -8.35% E -1.24% K -1.45% G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46% NM 65.40%EV -10.49% E -7.60% K -27.61% G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53% NM 21.23%EV -8.37% E -1.97% K -2.57% G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-06-25 03:39 |
| Casumo | 6.75I 14.81% NM 13.37%EV -8.35% E -1.24% K -1.45% G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46% NM 65.40%EV -10.49% E -7.60% K -27.61% G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53% NM 21.23%EV -8.37% E -1.97% K -2.57% G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-06-25 03:39 |
| Unibet (SE) | 6.75I 14.81% NM 13.37%EV -8.35% E -1.24% K -1.45% G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46% NM 65.40%EV -10.49% E -7.60% K -27.61% G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53% NM 21.23%EV -8.37% E -1.97% K -2.57% G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-06-25 03:39 |
| TABtouch | 6.75I 14.81% NM 13.37%EV -8.35% E -1.24% K -1.45% G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46% NM 65.40%EV -10.49% E -7.60% K -27.61% G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53% NM 21.23%EV -8.37% E -1.97% K -2.57% G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-06-25 03:39 |
| Unibet | 6.75I 14.81% NM 13.37%EV -8.35% E -1.24% K -1.45% G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46% NM 65.40%EV -10.49% E -7.60% K -27.61% G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53% NM 21.23%EV -8.37% E -1.97% K -2.57% G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-06-25 03:39 |
| Svenska Spel | 6.75I 14.81% NM 13.37%EV -8.35% E -1.24% K -1.45% G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46% NM 65.40%EV -10.49% E -7.60% K -27.61% G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53% NM 21.23%EV -8.37% E -1.97% K -2.57% G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-06-25 03:39 |
| ATG (SE) | 6.75I 14.81% NM 13.37%EV -8.35% E -1.24% K -1.45% G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46% NM 65.40%EV -10.49% E -7.60% K -27.61% G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53% NM 21.23%EV -8.37% E -1.97% K -2.57% G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-06-25 03:40 |
| BetRivers | 6.75I 14.81% NM 13.37%EV -8.35% E -1.24% K -1.45% G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46% NM 65.40%EV -10.49% E -7.60% K -27.61% G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53% NM 21.23%EV -8.37% E -1.97% K -2.57% G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-06-25 06:40 |
| betPARX | 6.75I 14.81% NM 13.37%EV -8.35% E -1.24% K -1.45% G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46% NM 65.40%EV -10.49% E -7.60% K -27.61% G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53% NM 21.23%EV -8.37% E -1.97% K -2.57% G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-06-25 08:59 |
| Codere (IT) | 6.60I 15.15% NM 14.05%EV -10.39% E -1.57% K -1.85% G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44% NM 64.39%EV -6.60% E -4.58% K -15.00% G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 21.56%EV -7.29% E -1.70% K -2.21% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-06-26 05:09 |
| SportsBet | 6.50I 15.38% NM 14.44%EV -11.74% E -1.81% K -2.14% G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03% NM 63.87%EV -4.65% E -3.17% K -9.90% G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09% NM 21.68%EV -6.64% E -1.53% K -1.99% G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-03 18:39 |
| DraftKings | 6.50I 15.38% NM 14.17%EV -11.74% E -1.81% K -2.14% G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93% NM 64.41%EV -7.25% E -5.07% K -16.86% G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 21.42%EV -7.29% E -1.70% K -2.21% G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-29 03:29 |
| 888sport (SE) | 6.50I 15.38% NM 14.01%EV -11.74% E -1.81% K -2.14% G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44% NM 63.23%EV -6.60% E -4.58% K -15.00% G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00% NM 22.76%EV -13.76% E -3.44% K -4.59% G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-06-25 21:20 |
| 888sport | 6.50I 15.38% NM 14.01%EV -11.74% E -1.81% K -2.14% G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44% NM 63.23%EV -6.60% E -4.58% K -15.00% G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00% NM 22.76%EV -13.76% E -3.44% K -4.59% G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-06-25 21:29 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 6.50I 15.38% NM 14.01%EV -11.74% E -1.81% K -2.14% G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44% NM 63.23%EV -6.60% E -4.58% K -15.00% G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00% NM 22.76%EV -13.76% E -3.44% K -4.59% G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-06-25 21:30 |
| William Hill | 6.50I 15.38% NM 14.01%EV -11.74% E -1.81% K -2.14% G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44% NM 63.23%EV -6.60% E -4.58% K -15.00% G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00% NM 22.76%EV -13.76% E -3.44% K -4.59% G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-06-26 01:40 |
| BoyleSports | 6.50I 15.38% NM 13.91%EV -11.74% E -1.81% K -2.14% G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43% NM 64.57%EV -9.19% E -6.57% K -22.98% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 21.52%EV -9.45% E -2.25% K -2.95% G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-06-30 10:49 |
| LeoVegas | 6.40I 15.63% NM 14.30%EV -13.10% E -2.05% K -2.43% G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42% NM 64.43%EV -7.90% E -5.56% K -18.80% G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 21.28%EV -7.29% E -1.70% K -2.21% G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-04 00:05 |
| Sky Bet | 6.00I 16.67% NM 14.30%EV -18.53% E -3.09% K -3.71% G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53% NM 63.11%EV -11.79% E -8.67% K -32.75% G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32% NM 22.59%EV -18.07% E -4.76% K -6.45% G +0.000% | 16.5% | 2026-06-25 20:19 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 6.00I 16.67% NM 13.84%EV -18.53% E -3.09% K -3.71% G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19% NM 62.43%EV -13.73% E -10.33% K -41.62% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 23.73%EV -24.54% E -7.01% K -9.82% G +0.000% | 20.4% | 2026-06-25 20:19 |
| Unibet (FR) | 5.80I 17.24% NM 14.81%EV -21.25% E -3.66% K -4.43% G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53% NM 63.16%EV -11.79% E -8.67% K -32.75% G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64% NM 22.03%EV -15.91% E -4.08% K -5.49% G +0.000% | 16.4% | 2026-06-26 05:10 |
| Betclic (FR) | 5.75I 17.39% NM 14.79%EV -21.93% E -3.81% K -4.62% G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07% NM 63.00%EV -12.44% E -9.21% K -35.53% G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11% NM 22.21%EV -17.42% E -4.55% K -6.16% G +0.000% | 17.6% | 2026-06-26 05:10 |
| Winamax (DE) | 5.70I 17.54% NM 15.34%EV -22.61% E -3.97% K -4.81% G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46% NM 63.34%EV -10.49% E -7.60% K -27.61% G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39% NM 21.32%EV -11.60% E -2.83% K -3.74% G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-06-26 05:10 |
| Winamax (FR) | 5.30I 18.87% NM 15.91%EV -28.04% E -5.29% K -6.52% G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07% NM 62.47%EV -12.44% E -9.21% K -35.53% G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64% NM 21.62%EV -15.91% E -4.08% K -5.49% G +0.000% | 18.6% | 2026-06-26 05:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Chapecoense (Local) | Flamengo (Visit) | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 4.60I 21.74% | 1.45I 68.97% | 4.50I 22.22% | 12.9% | 2026-07-05 10:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 4.60I 21.74% | 1.45I 68.97% | 4.50I 22.22% | 12.9% | 2026-07-05 10:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 4.60I 21.74% | 1.45I 68.97% | 3.30I 30.30% | 21.0% | 2026-07-05 10:15 |
| Smarkets | 4.50I 22.22% | 1.35I 74.07% | 3.75I 26.67% | 23.0% | 2026-07-05 10:40 |