The School of Odds

Chapecoense v Flamengo

Kickoff: 2026-07-23 00:30 UTC

Final: Chapecoense 0–4 Flamengo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

60 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Chapecoense (Local)

Prediction 11.21%8.92fair odd
EV +6.51%
Edge +0.685%
Kelly +0.765%
Growth +0.050%

assuming max odds 9.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.97%11.26%11.11%13.01%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
6.758.328.509.5015%12%12%11%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Flamengo (Visit)

Prediction 68.69%1.46fair odd
EV -2.46%
Edge -1.73%
Kelly -5.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.88%68.69%68.81%70.70%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.301.361.361.4277%73%74%70%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 20.10%4.98fair odd
EV +0.702%
Edge +0.140%
Kelly +0.175%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 5.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.01%20.05%20.08%21.31%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.304.624.605.0123%22%22%20%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
SportsBet9.50I 10.53%NM 9.97%EV +6.51%E +0.685%K +0.765%G +0.050%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.70%EV -7.96%E -5.94%K -23.40%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.33%EV -1.51%E -0.308%K -0.387%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-23 00:23
Pinnacle9.22I 10.85%NM 10.45%EV +3.37%E +0.365%K +0.410%G +0.014%1.37I 72.99%NM 70.32%EV -5.90%E -4.30%K -15.94%G +0.000%5.01I 19.96%NM 19.23%EV +0.702%E +0.140%K +0.175%G +0.001%3.8%2026-07-23 00:14
Svenska Spel9.00I 11.11%NM 10.76%EV +0.900%E +0.100%K +0.113%G +0.001%1.41I 70.92%NM 68.65%EV -3.15%E -2.23%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.59%EV -5.53%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-23 00:24
ATG (SE)9.00I 11.11%NM 10.76%EV +0.900%E +0.100%K +0.113%G +0.001%1.41I 70.92%NM 68.65%EV -3.15%E -2.23%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.59%EV -5.53%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-23 00:24
BetOnline.ag9.00I 11.11%NM 10.73%EV +0.900%E +0.100%K +0.113%G +0.001%1.39I 71.94%NM 69.45%EV -4.52%E -3.25%K -11.60%G +0.000%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.82%EV -2.11%E -0.434%K -0.546%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-22 22:15
LowVig.ag9.00I 11.11%NM 10.73%EV +0.900%E +0.100%K +0.113%G +0.001%1.39I 71.94%NM 69.45%EV -4.52%E -3.25%K -11.60%G +0.000%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.82%EV -2.11%E -0.434%K -0.546%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-22 22:14
BetAnything9.00I 11.11%NM 10.73%EV +0.900%E +0.100%K +0.113%G +0.001%1.39I 71.94%NM 69.45%EV -4.52%E -3.25%K -11.60%G +0.000%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.82%EV -2.11%E -0.434%K -0.546%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-22 22:15
Coolbet9.00I 11.11%NM 10.57%EV +0.900%E +0.100%K +0.113%G +0.001%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.96%EV -5.21%E -3.78%K -13.71%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.47%EV -6.53%E -1.41%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-22 23:49
Fanatics9.00I 11.11%NM 10.56%EV +0.900%E +0.100%K +0.113%G +0.001%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.42%EV -7.27%E -5.39%K -20.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.01%EV +0.501%E +0.100%K +0.125%G +0.001%5.2%2026-07-23 00:19
Everygame9.00I 11.11%NM 10.35%EV +0.900%E +0.100%K +0.113%G +0.001%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.04%EV -8.64%E -6.50%K -26.19%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -4.52%E -0.952%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-22 23:49
Tipico (DE)9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV +0.900%E +0.100%K +0.113%G +0.001%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.64%E -6.50%K -26.19%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -9.55%E -2.12%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-23 00:09
Marathon Bet8.80I 11.36%NM 10.59%EV -1.34%E -0.153%K -0.172%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.57%EV -7.96%E -5.94%K -23.40%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV -5.53%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-23 00:24
1xBet8.58I 11.66%NM 11.34%EV -3.81%E -0.444%K -0.502%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 68.55%EV -2.46%E -1.73%K -5.86%G +0.000%4.84I 20.66%NM 20.11%EV -2.72%E -0.561%K -0.707%G +0.000%2.7%2026-07-23 00:24
GTbets8.57I 11.67%NM 11.00%EV -3.92%E -0.457%K -0.518%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.29%EV -5.21%E -3.78%K -13.71%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.71%EV -8.54%E -1.88%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-22 23:50
LeoVegas8.50I 11.76%NM 11.20%EV -4.71%E -0.554%K -0.627%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.97%EV -5.21%E -3.78%K -13.71%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV -3.52%E -0.733%K -0.926%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-23 00:24
DraftKings8.50I 11.76%NM 11.14%EV -4.71%E -0.554%K -0.627%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 69.13%EV -5.90%E -4.30%K -15.94%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -3.52%E -0.733%K -0.926%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-22 23:49
Bet Victor8.50I 11.76%NM 11.06%EV -4.71%E -0.554%K -0.627%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.14%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.80%EV -4.52%E -0.952%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-23 00:24
betano_uk8.50I 11.76%NM 11.06%EV -4.71%E -0.554%K -0.627%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.14%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.80%EV -4.52%E -0.952%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-23 00:23
Unibet8.50I 11.76%NM 11.05%EV -4.71%E -0.554%K -0.627%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.54%EV -5.90%E -4.30%K -15.94%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -7.54%E -1.64%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-23 00:14
PointsBet (AU)8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -4.71%E -0.554%K -0.627%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.23%EV -5.90%E -4.30%K -15.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -9.55%E -2.12%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-22 23:39
Grosvenor8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -4.71%E -0.554%K -0.627%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.70%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -7.54%E -1.64%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-23 00:05
Unibet (NL)8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -4.71%E -0.554%K -0.627%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.70%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -7.54%E -1.64%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-23 00:05
Casumo8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -4.71%E -0.554%K -0.627%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.70%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -7.54%E -1.64%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-23 00:04
Unibet (SE)8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -4.71%E -0.554%K -0.627%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.70%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -7.54%E -1.64%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-23 00:04
TABtouch8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -4.71%E -0.554%K -0.627%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.70%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -7.54%E -1.64%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-23 00:05
BetRivers8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -4.71%E -0.554%K -0.627%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.70%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -7.54%E -1.64%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-23 00:04
betPARX8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -4.71%E -0.554%K -0.627%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.70%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -7.54%E -1.64%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-23 00:04
Bet Right8.50I 11.76%NM 10.94%EV -4.71%E -0.554%K -0.627%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.86%EV -7.27%E -5.39%K -20.77%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -7.54%E -1.64%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-22 23:39
LeoVegas (SE)8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV -4.71%E -0.554%K -0.627%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.55%EV -7.27%E -5.39%K -20.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -9.55%E -2.12%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-23 00:24
Betr (AU)8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV -4.71%E -0.554%K -0.627%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.55%EV -7.27%E -5.39%K -20.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -9.55%E -2.12%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-22 23:39
FanDuel8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -4.71%E -0.554%K -0.627%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 69.92%EV -9.33%E -7.07%K -29.16%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.23%EV -3.52%E -0.733%K -0.926%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-23 00:23
betfred_uk8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV -4.71%E -0.554%K -0.627%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.84%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.31%EV -12.97%E -2.99%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-22 23:39
LiveScore Bet8.50I 11.76%NM 10.73%EV -4.71%E -0.554%K -0.627%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.55%EV -8.64%E -6.50%K -26.19%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.72%EV -11.56%E -2.63%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-23 00:24
PMU (FR)8.50I 11.76%NM 10.73%EV -4.71%E -0.554%K -0.627%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.55%EV -8.64%E -6.50%K -26.19%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.72%EV -11.56%E -2.63%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-23 00:24
Virgin Bet8.50I 11.76%NM 10.73%EV -4.71%E -0.554%K -0.627%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.55%EV -8.64%E -6.50%K -26.19%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.72%EV -11.56%E -2.63%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-23 00:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)8.50I 11.76%NM 10.65%EV -4.71%E -0.554%K -0.627%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.66%EV -10.70%E -8.23%K -35.68%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -7.54%E -1.64%K -2.09%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-23 00:24
Paddy Power8.50I 11.76%NM 10.61%EV -4.71%E -0.554%K -0.627%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.36%EV -10.70%E -8.23%K -35.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -9.55%E -2.12%K -2.73%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-23 00:25
BetUS8.40I 11.90%NM 11.37%EV -5.83%E -0.694%K -0.787%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 68.73%EV -4.52%E -3.25%K -11.60%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.90%EV -3.52%E -0.733%K -0.926%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-23 00:24
Codere (IT)8.20I 12.20%NM 11.51%EV -8.07%E -0.984%K -1.12%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.40%EV -5.21%E -3.78%K -13.71%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.08%EV -5.53%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-23 00:24
Coral8.00I 12.50%NM 11.93%EV -10.31%E -1.29%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.89%EV -3.52%E -0.733%K -0.926%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-22 23:34
Bovada8.00I 12.50%NM 11.93%EV -10.31%E -1.29%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.89%EV -3.52%E -0.733%K -0.926%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-23 00:24
BetMGM8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV -10.31%E -1.29%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.04%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.05%EV -4.52%E -0.952%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-22 23:34
Unibet (UK)8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -10.31%E -1.29%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.07%EV -5.90%E -4.30%K -15.94%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -7.54%E -1.64%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-23 00:24
Betway8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -10.31%E -1.29%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.82%EV -7.27%E -5.39%K -20.77%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -4.52%E -0.952%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-22 23:55
BoyleSports8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -10.31%E -1.29%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -9.55%E -2.12%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-22 23:49
Sky Bet8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -10.31%E -1.29%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.37%EV -10.70%E -8.23%K -35.68%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.53%EV -12.97%E -2.99%K -3.89%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-23 00:24
Betsson7.90I 12.66%NM 11.82%EV -11.43%E -1.45%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 67.19%EV -4.52%E -3.25%K -11.60%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.99%EV -10.55%E -2.37%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-23 00:24
NordicBet7.90I 12.66%NM 11.82%EV -11.43%E -1.45%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 67.19%EV -4.52%E -3.25%K -11.60%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.99%EV -10.55%E -2.37%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-23 00:24
PlayUp7.75I 12.90%NM 11.91%EV -13.11%E -1.69%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.88%EV -5.21%E -3.78%K -13.71%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.22%EV -12.56%E -2.89%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-23 00:25
Betclic (FR)7.75I 12.90%NM 11.64%EV -13.11%E -1.69%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 67.85%EV -8.64%E -6.50%K -26.19%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -11.56%E -2.63%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-23 00:24
Neds7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -15.92%E -2.12%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.07%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -7.54%E -1.64%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-22 23:34
Ladbrokes (AU)7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -15.92%E -2.12%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.07%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -7.54%E -1.64%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-22 23:34
Ladbrokes (UK)7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -15.92%E -2.12%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.07%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -7.54%E -1.64%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-22 23:34
888sport (SE)7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -15.92%E -2.12%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -9.55%E -2.12%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-23 00:25
888sport7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -15.92%E -2.12%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -9.55%E -2.12%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-23 00:25
Mr Green (SE)7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -15.92%E -2.12%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -9.55%E -2.12%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-23 00:25
William Hill7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -15.92%E -2.12%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -9.55%E -2.12%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-23 00:24
Unibet (FR)7.40I 13.51%NM 11.95%EV -17.04%E -2.30%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 67.49%EV -10.02%E -7.65%K -32.32%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.56%EV -13.57%E -3.16%K -4.11%G +0.000%13.1%2026-07-23 00:24
Winamax (DE)7.25I 13.79%NM 12.57%EV -18.72%E -2.58%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 68.03%EV -7.96%E -5.94%K -23.40%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.40%EV -5.53%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-23 00:00
Winamax (FR)6.75I 14.81%NM 13.01%EV -24.32%E -3.60%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 67.03%EV -10.02%E -7.65%K -32.32%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.96%EV -11.56%E -2.63%K -3.40%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-22 23:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook11.00I 9.09%NM 9.11%1.40I 71.43%NM 71.61%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.28%-0.2%2026-07-23 00:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)10.50I 9.52%NM 9.46%1.39I 71.94%NM 71.44%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.10%0.7%2026-07-23 00:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)10.50I 9.52%NM 9.46%1.39I 71.94%NM 71.44%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.10%0.7%2026-07-23 00:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)10.50I 9.52%NM 9.46%1.39I 71.94%NM 71.44%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.10%0.7%2026-07-23 00:25
Smarkets10.00I 10.00%NM 9.83%1.38I 72.46%NM 71.26%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.91%1.7%2026-07-23 00:24
Kalshi10.00I 10.00%NM 9.80%1.37I 72.99%NM 71.56%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.64%2.0%2026-07-22 23:50