La escuela de los momios

Chapecoense v Corinthians

Inicio: 2026-03-20 00:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

60 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Chapecoense (Local)

Predicción 28.86%3.47momio equitativo
EV +5.33%
Ventaja +1.46%
Kelly +2.01%
Crecimiento +0.107%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.57%28.73%28.93%29.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.953.273.253.6533.90%30.57%30.77%27.40%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Corinthians (Visitante)

Predicción 41.04%2.44momio equitativo
EV -3.14%
Ventaja -1.33%
Kelly -2.31%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.36

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.23%41.12%41.02%42.86%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.242.252.3650.00%44.73%44.44%42.37%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 30.10%3.32momio equitativo
EV -3.67%
Ventaja -1.15%
Kelly -1.67%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.86%30.16%30.05%31.30%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.703.073.103.2037.04%32.61%32.26%31.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (60 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet3.65I 27.40%NM 26.57%EV +5.33%E +1.46%K +2.01%G +0.107%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.73%EV -6.84%E -3.01%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.70%EV -4.88%E -1.54%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-20 00:24
Svenska Spel3.55I 28.17%NM 27.12%EV +2.44%E +0.688%K +0.958%G +0.023%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.79%EV -7.66%E -3.40%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.09%EV -3.67%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-20 00:19
ATG (SE)3.55I 28.17%NM 27.12%EV +2.44%E +0.688%K +0.958%G +0.023%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.79%EV -7.66%E -3.40%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.09%EV -3.67%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-20 00:19
Unibet3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -0.442%E -0.128%K -0.181%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -9.71%E -4.41%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.90%EV -5.18%E -1.64%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-20 00:14
Unibet (NL)3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -0.442%E -0.128%K -0.181%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -9.71%E -4.41%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.90%EV -5.18%E -1.64%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-20 00:12
Casumo3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -0.442%E -0.128%K -0.181%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -9.71%E -4.41%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.90%EV -5.18%E -1.64%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-20 00:12
Grosvenor3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -0.442%E -0.128%K -0.181%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -9.71%E -4.41%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.90%EV -5.18%E -1.64%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-20 00:12
Unibet (SE)3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -0.442%E -0.128%K -0.181%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -9.71%E -4.41%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.90%EV -5.18%E -1.64%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-20 00:12
betPARX3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -0.442%E -0.128%K -0.181%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -9.71%E -4.41%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.90%EV -5.18%E -1.64%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-20 00:12
Pinnacle3.42I 29.24%NM 28.29%EV -1.31%E -0.382%K -0.540%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.00%EV -3.14%E -1.33%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.71%EV -5.18%E -1.64%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-20 00:15
SportsBet3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -1.89%E -0.554%K -0.785%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -5.61%E -2.44%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.68%EV -6.68%E -2.16%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 00:09
FanDuel3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -1.89%E -0.554%K -0.785%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -7.66%E -3.40%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -6.68%E -2.16%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-20 00:10
BetRivers3.40I 29.41%NM 27.48%EV -1.89%E -0.554%K -0.785%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.86%EV -10.53%E -4.83%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.66%EV -5.18%E -1.64%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-20 00:14
LeoVegas (SE)3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -1.89%E -0.554%K -0.785%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.77%EV -10.94%E -5.04%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -6.68%E -2.16%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-20 00:20
Tipico (DE)3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -1.89%E -0.554%K -0.785%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.79%EV -9.71%E -4.41%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -11.20%E -3.80%K -5.74%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-20 00:19
LeoVegas3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -3.33%E -0.993%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 42.50%EV -11.35%E -5.26%K -9.79%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.10%EV -8.19%E -2.68%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-20 00:19
TABtouch3.35I 29.85%NM 27.29%EV -3.33%E -0.993%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.73%EV -12.17%E -5.69%K -10.68%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.98%EV -8.19%E -2.68%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-20 00:19
LowVig.ag3.32I 30.12%NM 28.67%EV -4.19%E -1.26%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.02%EV -4.79%E -2.06%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.31%EV -5.48%E -1.74%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-19 23:55
BetOnline.ag3.32I 30.12%NM 28.67%EV -4.19%E -1.26%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.02%EV -4.79%E -2.06%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.31%EV -5.48%E -1.74%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-19 23:55
Fanatics3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -4.77%E -1.45%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.40%EV -5.61%E -2.44%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -3.67%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-19 23:34
Bovada3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -4.77%E -1.45%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.80%EV -5.61%E -2.44%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -8.19%E -2.68%K -3.99%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-20 00:15
BetAnything3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -4.77%E -1.45%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.80%EV -5.61%E -2.44%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -8.19%E -2.68%K -3.99%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-20 00:15
BetUS3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -4.77%E -1.45%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.80%EV -5.61%E -2.44%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -8.19%E -2.68%K -3.99%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-20 00:15
Marathon Bet3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -4.77%E -1.45%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.07%EV -6.84%E -3.01%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.67%EV -8.49%E -2.79%K -4.16%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-20 00:25
Virgin Bet3.30I 30.30%NM 27.35%EV -4.77%E -1.45%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.57%EV -12.99%E -6.13%K -11.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.08%EV -9.69%E -3.23%K -4.85%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-20 00:19
LiveScore Bet3.30I 30.30%NM 27.35%EV -4.77%E -1.45%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.57%EV -12.99%E -6.13%K -11.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.08%EV -9.69%E -3.23%K -4.85%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-20 00:19
Coral3.25I 30.77%NM 29.17%EV -6.21%E -1.91%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.21%EV -5.61%E -2.44%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.62%EV -3.67%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-19 23:34
DraftKings3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -6.21%E -1.91%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.30%EV -3.56%E -1.51%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -6.68%E -2.16%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-19 23:34
Unibet (UK)3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -6.21%E -1.91%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.02%EV -5.61%E -2.44%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.95%EV -5.18%E -1.64%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-19 23:35
Coolbet3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -6.21%E -1.91%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.02%EV -5.61%E -2.44%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.95%EV -5.18%E -1.64%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-20 00:00
Codere (IT)3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -6.21%E -1.91%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.02%EV -5.61%E -2.44%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.95%EV -5.18%E -1.64%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-19 23:39
Bet Victor3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -6.21%E -1.91%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -7.66%E -3.40%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -3.67%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-20 00:19
Everygame3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -6.21%E -1.91%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -5.61%E -2.44%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -8.19%E -2.68%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-19 23:45
Paddy Power3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -6.21%E -1.91%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -9.71%E -4.41%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -12.70%E -4.38%K -6.69%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-20 00:09
GTbets3.23I 30.96%NM 28.79%EV -6.79%E -2.10%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.70%EV -8.48%E -3.80%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.52%EV -5.18%E -1.64%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-19 23:40
BetMGM3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -7.66%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.61%E -2.44%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -3.67%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-19 23:35
Ladbrokes (UK)3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -7.66%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -5.61%E -2.44%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.68%E -2.16%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-19 23:34
Ladbrokes (AU)3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -7.66%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -5.61%E -2.44%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.68%E -2.16%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-19 23:34
Neds3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -7.66%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -5.61%E -2.44%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.68%E -2.16%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-19 23:34
Betway3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -7.66%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -5.61%E -2.44%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.68%E -2.16%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-19 23:34
Betsson3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -7.66%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.23%EV -4.79%E -2.06%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.60%EV -8.19%E -2.68%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-19 23:44
NordicBet3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -7.66%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.23%EV -4.79%E -2.06%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.60%EV -8.19%E -2.68%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-19 23:44
PointsBet (AU)3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -7.66%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -7.66%E -3.40%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -6.68%E -2.16%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-19 23:39
PlayUp3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.66%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -5.61%E -2.44%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -9.69%E -3.23%K -4.85%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-19 23:45
888sport3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -7.66%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -7.66%E -3.40%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -12.70%E -4.38%K -6.69%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-20 00:24
William Hill3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -7.66%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -7.66%E -3.40%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -12.70%E -4.38%K -6.69%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-20 00:19
888sport (SE)3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -7.66%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -7.66%E -3.40%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -12.70%E -4.38%K -6.69%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-20 00:24
Mr Green (SE)3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -7.66%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -7.66%E -3.40%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -12.70%E -4.38%K -6.69%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-20 00:24
Sky Bet3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -7.66%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -9.71%E -4.41%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -12.70%E -4.38%K -6.69%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-20 00:10
Bet Right3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -9.10%E -2.89%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -7.66%E -3.40%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -5.18%E -1.64%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-19 23:40
Betr (AU)3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -9.10%E -2.89%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -7.66%E -3.40%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -6.68%E -2.16%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-20 00:24
Fliff3.15I 31.75%NM 28.31%EV -9.10%E -2.89%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.47%EV -11.76%E -5.47%K -10.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.22%EV -11.20%E -3.80%K -5.74%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-20 00:24
Unibet (FR)3.12I 32.05%NM 28.59%EV -9.97%E -3.19%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 41.88%EV -12.58%E -5.91%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 29.54%EV -9.09%E -3.01%K -4.50%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-19 23:54
BoyleSports3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.54%E -3.40%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -7.66%E -3.40%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -9.69%E -3.23%K -4.85%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-19 23:35
Betclic (FR)3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -10.54%E -3.40%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -11.76%E -5.47%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -9.69%E -3.23%K -4.85%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-20 00:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 27.34%EV -10.54%E -3.40%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.38%EV -17.92%E -8.96%K -17.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.27%EV -15.71%E -5.61%K -8.73%G +0.000%18.0%2026-03-20 00:15
Winamax (DE)3.05I 32.79%NM 29.81%EV -11.99%E -3.93%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -9.71%E -4.41%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -5.18%E -1.64%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-19 23:39
Parions Sport (FR)3.05I 32.79%NM 28.83%EV -11.99%E -3.93%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.87%EV -13.82%E -6.58%K -12.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.31%EV -9.69%E -3.23%K -4.85%G +0.000%13.7%2026-03-20 00:05
PMU (FR)3.00I 33.33%NM 27.69%EV -13.43%E -4.48%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 41.54%EV -17.92%E -8.96%K -17.92%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 30.77%EV -18.72%E -6.93%K -11.01%G +0.000%20.4%2026-03-20 00:10
Winamax (FR)2.95I 33.90%NM 29.80%EV -14.87%E -5.04%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.89%EV -11.76%E -5.47%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.31%EV -9.69%E -3.23%K -4.85%G +0.000%13.7%2026-03-19 23:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.74%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04%0.7%2026-03-20 00:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.38%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%0.7%2026-03-20 00:14
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.38%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%0.7%2026-03-20 00:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.38%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%0.7%2026-03-20 00:14
Kalshi3.57I 28.01%NM 27.49%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.12%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.39%1.9%2026-03-20 00:25
Smarkets3.55I 28.17%NM 27.64%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.22%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.14%1.9%2026-03-20 00:15