Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 4.44
assuming max odds 1.93
assuming max odds 3.95
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chapecoense (Local): 23.73%; Atletico Paranaense (Visit): 51.41%; Draw: 24.85%. For Chapecoense (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.21. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.44, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.38%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.44I 22.52%NM 21.60%EV +5.38%E +1.21%K +1.56%G +0.084% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.29%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 3.82I 26.18%NM 25.11%EV -5.06%E -1.33%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-12 22:22 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.46%EV +0.873%E +0.205%K +0.268%G +0.002% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.03%EV -3.86%E -2.06%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.51%EV -10.53%E -2.93%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-12 22:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%EV -0.314%E -0.075%K -0.098%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.16%EV -5.91%E -3.23%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.12%EV -5.56%E -1.46%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-12 22:14 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.68%EV -0.314%E -0.075%K -0.098%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.22%EV -4.37%E -2.35%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.10%EV -9.29%E -2.54%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-12 22:09 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -0.314%E -0.075%K -0.098%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.99%EV -12.60%E -7.41%K -18.00%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -5.56%E -1.46%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-12 21:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.18I 23.92%NM 23.16%EV -0.789%E -0.189%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.33%EV -4.89%E -2.64%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.51%EV -1.83%E -0.464%K -0.621%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-10-12 22:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.16I 24.04%NM 23.17%EV -1.26%E -0.304%K -0.400%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.11%EV -4.89%E -2.64%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.72%EV -3.08%E -0.789%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-12 22:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.16I 24.04%NM 23.17%EV -1.26%E -0.304%K -0.400%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.11%EV -4.89%E -2.64%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.72%EV -3.08%E -0.789%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-12 22:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -2.69%E -0.656%K -0.867%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.28%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -5.56%E -1.46%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-12 22:14 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.37%EV -3.87%E -0.957%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -5.91%E -3.23%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.91%EV -5.56%E -1.46%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-12 22:19 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.37%EV -3.87%E -0.957%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -5.91%E -3.23%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.91%EV -5.56%E -1.46%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-12 22:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.98%EV -3.87%E -0.957%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.00%EV -7.97%E -4.45%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.02%EV -7.55%E -2.03%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-12 21:49 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.86%EV -5.06%E -1.27%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.03%EV -3.86%E -2.06%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.11%EV -5.56%E -1.46%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-12 21:49 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -5.06%E -1.27%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -3.08%E -0.789%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-12 22:23 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -5.06%E -1.27%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -3.08%E -0.789%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-12 22:23 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -5.06%E -1.27%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -10.53%E -2.93%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-12 21:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.31%EV -6.25%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.75%EV -0.773%E -0.401%K -0.831%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.95%EV -8.05%E -2.17%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.31%EV -6.25%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.75%EV -0.773%E -0.401%K -0.831%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.95%EV -8.05%E -2.17%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-12 22:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.90%EV -6.25%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.58%EV -5.91%E -3.23%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.52%EV -4.32%E -1.12%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-12 22:18 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.88%EV -6.25%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.98%EV -4.89%E -2.64%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -6.80%E -1.81%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-12 21:34 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -6.25%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.55%EV -6.43%E -3.53%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -5.56%E -1.46%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-12 22:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.43%EV -6.25%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.86%EV -6.43%E -3.53%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -10.53%E -2.93%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-12 21:38 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -7.43%E -1.91%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 50.78%EV -5.40%E -2.93%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -8.05%E -2.17%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-12 21:34 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -7.43%E -1.91%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.06%EV -6.43%E -3.53%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -8.05%E -2.17%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-12 21:39 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.19%EV -7.43%E -1.91%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.68%EV -10.03%E -5.73%K -13.37%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -10.53%E -2.93%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-12 22:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -8.62%E -2.24%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.73%EV -6.43%E -3.53%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.29%EV -9.29%E -2.54%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-12 22:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -9.81%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.13%EV -2.32%E -1.22%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -11.77%E -3.32%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -9.81%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.27%EV -2.83%E -1.50%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.23%EV -11.77%E -3.32%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -9.81%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.27%EV -2.83%E -1.50%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.23%EV -11.77%E -3.32%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -9.81%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.27%EV -2.83%E -1.50%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.23%EV -11.77%E -3.32%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-12 22:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -9.81%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.27%EV -2.83%E -1.50%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.23%EV -11.77%E -3.32%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-12 22:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -9.81%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.27%EV -2.83%E -1.50%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.23%EV -11.77%E -3.32%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -9.81%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -5.56%E -1.46%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-12 21:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -9.81%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.67%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -10.53%E -2.93%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-12 22:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -9.81%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.67%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -10.53%E -2.93%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -9.81%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.67%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -10.53%E -2.93%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -9.81%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.67%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -10.53%E -2.93%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-12 22:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -9.81%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.18%EV -11.06%E -6.39%K -15.14%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -6.80%E -1.81%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -9.81%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.37%EV -10.03%E -5.73%K -13.37%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -10.53%E -2.93%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-12 21:39 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.35%EV -9.81%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.29%EV -11.06%E -6.39%K -15.14%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -13.02%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-10-12 22:09 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -12.18%E -3.29%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.33%EV -4.89%E -2.64%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -5.56%E -1.46%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-12 21:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -12.18%E -3.29%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.33%EV -4.89%E -2.64%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -5.56%E -1.46%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-12 22:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -12.18%E -3.29%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.96%EV -8.49%E -4.77%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -8.05%E -2.17%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-12 21:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.68I 27.17%NM 23.88%EV -12.66%E -3.44%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 50.80%EV -11.06%E -6.39%K -15.14%G +0.000% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 25.32%EV -13.76%E -3.97%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -13.37%E -3.66%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.68%EV -3.86%E -2.06%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%EV -14.26%E -4.13%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.78%EV -13.37%E -3.66%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 48.62%EV -4.37%E -2.35%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -15.50%E -4.56%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.78%EV -13.37%E -3.66%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 48.62%EV -4.37%E -2.35%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -15.50%E -4.56%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.71%EV -13.37%E -3.66%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.76%EV -4.89%E -2.64%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.53%EV -15.50%E -4.56%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-10-12 22:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.55%EV -13.37%E -3.66%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 50.91%EV -9.51%E -5.41%K -12.52%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.55%EV -9.29%E -2.54%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-10-12 21:34 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -14.55%E -4.04%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -4.89%E -2.64%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -5.56%E -1.46%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-12 22:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -14.55%E -4.04%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -5.91%E -3.23%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -6.80%E -1.81%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-12 21:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -14.55%E -4.04%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.59%EV -4.89%E -2.64%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -15.50%E -4.56%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-12 22:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -14.55%E -4.04%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -5.91%E -3.23%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -15.50%E -4.56%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.46%EV -15.74%E -4.43%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 49.62%EV -10.03%E -5.73%K -13.37%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 25.92%EV -16.74%E -5.00%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.65% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.44% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.91% | 0.4% | 2026-10-12 22:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.65% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.44% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.91% | 0.4% | 2026-10-12 22:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.65% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.44% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.91% | 0.4% | 2026-10-12 22:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.65% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.44% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.91% | 0.4% | 2026-10-12 22:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.51% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.41% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.08% | 1.0% | 2026-10-12 22:15 |
| Kalshi◎ | 4.44I 22.52%NM 22.28% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.47% | 4.08I 24.51%NM 24.25% | 1.1% | 2026-10-12 22:05 |