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Bragantino-SP v Flamengo

Kickoff: 2026-04-01 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bragantino-SP (Local)

Prediction 22.89%4.37fair odd
EV -1.12%
Edge -0.260%
Kelly -0.338%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.14%22.97%22.86%24.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.883.954.3229.41%25.76%25.32%23.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Flamengo (Visit)

Prediction 49.68%2.01fair odd
EV -3.13%
Edge -1.60%
Kelly -3.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.51%49.59%49.77%50.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.831.851.9558.82%54.56%54.05%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.43%3.65fair odd
EV -4.53%
Edge -1.30%
Kelly -1.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.73%27.45%27.37%29.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.263.253.4834.72%30.65%30.77%28.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bragantino-SP (Local): 22.89%; Flamengo (Visit): 49.68%; Draw: 27.43%. For Bragantino-SP (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.37. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.32, with an expected value of -1.12%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.32I 23.15%NM 22.21%EV -1.12%E -0.260%K -0.338%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.23%EV -5.12%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.57%EV -4.53%E -1.30%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-23 06:00
Fanatics🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.14%EV -1.58%E -0.367%K -0.479%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.85%EV -5.12%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -6.72%E -1.98%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-23 04:34
Coolbet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.78%EV -3.87%E -0.921%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.07%EV -3.13%E -1.60%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.14%EV -6.72%E -1.98%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-23 04:49
Marathon Bet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -3.87%E -0.921%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.17%EV -7.60%E -4.09%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.61%EV -7.27%E -2.15%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-23 05:49
SportsBet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -6.16%E -1.50%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.45%EV -5.61%E -2.95%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.72%E -1.98%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-23 04:54
FanDuel🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -6.16%E -1.50%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.39%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -6.72%E -1.98%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-23 03:19
BoyleSports🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -8.45%E -2.11%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -10.58%E -5.88%K -13.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -6.72%E -1.98%K -2.80%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-23 00:15
888sport🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.66%EV -8.45%E -2.11%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.00%EV -8.10%E -4.38%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -12.21%E -3.82%K -5.55%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-23 04:34
William Hill🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.66%EV -8.45%E -2.11%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.00%EV -8.10%E -4.38%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -12.21%E -3.82%K -5.55%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-23 04:35
888sport (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.66%EV -8.45%E -2.11%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.00%EV -8.10%E -4.38%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -12.21%E -3.82%K -5.55%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-23 04:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.66%EV -8.45%E -2.11%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.00%EV -8.10%E -4.38%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -12.21%E -3.82%K -5.55%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-23 04:34
NordicBet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -9.59%E -2.43%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.48%EV -6.61%E -3.51%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.96%EV -5.35%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-21 12:35
Betsson🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -9.59%E -2.43%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.48%EV -6.61%E -3.51%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.96%EV -5.35%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-21 12:35
Codere (IT)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -10.74%E -2.75%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV -6.61%E -3.51%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.88%EV -5.35%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-21 00:59
Betway🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -13.02%E -3.43%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -5.12%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -6.72%E -1.98%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-23 02:03
Paddy Power🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -13.02%E -3.43%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.64%EV -8.10%E -4.38%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.69%EV -10.84%E -3.33%K -4.82%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-23 04:54
Fliff🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.55%EV -13.02%E -3.43%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.91%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -10.84%E -3.33%K -4.82%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-23 04:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 22.80%EV -14.17%E -3.78%K -5.15%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 47.51%EV -10.58%E -5.88%K -13.23%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.69%EV -20.99%E -7.29%K -11.16%G +0.000%16.9%2026-03-23 04:49
Betclic (FR)🎯3.63I 27.55%NM 23.77%EV -16.92%E -4.66%K -6.43%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 49.02%EV -12.57%E -7.14%K -16.54%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 27.22%EV -13.03%E -4.11%K -6.01%G +0.000%15.9%2026-03-23 02:04
Sky Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 23.81%EV -17.60%E -4.89%K -6.77%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 47.62%EV -10.58%E -5.88%K -13.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%EV -17.70%E -5.90%K -8.85%G +0.000%16.7%2026-03-23 04:54
Parions Sport (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 23.74%EV -17.60%E -4.89%K -6.77%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 49.12%EV -13.56%E -7.79%K -18.33%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.13%EV -13.58%E -4.31%K -6.32%G +0.000%17.0%2026-03-23 02:04
PMU (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 23.16%EV -17.60%E -4.89%K -6.77%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 49.05%EV -15.55%E -9.15%K -22.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.79%EV -17.70%E -5.90%K -8.85%G +0.000%19.9%2026-03-23 04:54
Winamax (DE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 24.47%EV -18.75%E -5.28%K -7.35%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 48.80%EV -11.57%E -6.50%K -14.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.73%EV -10.84%E -3.33%K -4.82%G +0.000%15.1%2026-03-23 02:04
Unibet (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 23.84%EV -19.89%E -5.68%K -7.96%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 48.80%EV -15.05%E -8.80%K -21.20%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 27.36%EV -16.32%E -5.35%K -7.96%G +0.000%19.8%2026-03-23 02:04
Winamax (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 24.79%EV -22.18%E -6.52%K -9.24%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 48.45%EV -13.56%E -7.79%K -18.33%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.76%EV -13.58%E -4.31%K -6.32%G +0.000%18.6%2026-03-23 02:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.94I 51.55%NM 25.92%1.03I 97.09%NM 48.82%1.99I 50.25%NM 25.27%98.9%2026-03-22 23:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.26I 79.37%NM 31.02%1.26I 79.37%NM 31.02%1.03I 97.09%NM 37.95%155.8%2026-03-23 01:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.26I 79.37%NM 31.02%1.26I 79.37%NM 31.02%1.03I 97.09%NM 37.95%155.8%2026-03-23 01:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.26I 79.37%NM 31.02%1.26I 79.37%NM 31.02%1.03I 97.09%NM 37.95%155.8%2026-03-23 01:59