Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Botafogo v Vitoria

Kickoff: 2026-07-23 22:30 UTC

Final: Botafogo 0–0 Vitoria

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

60 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Botafogo (Local)

Prediction 53.70%1.86fair odd
EV -3.87%
Edge -2.16%
Kelly -4.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.95%53.73%53.68%54.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.741.731.7960.24%57.63%57.64%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vitoria (Visit)

Prediction 20.63%4.85fair odd
EV +6.05%
Edge +1.18%
Kelly +1.46%
Growth +0.088%

assuming max odds 5.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.89%20.70%20.57%22.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.534.505.1425.00%22.07%22.22%19.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.67%3.90fair odd
EV -2.47%
Edge -0.650%
Kelly -0.882%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.16%25.57%25.76%26.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.643.653.8029.41%27.46%27.40%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Botafogo (Local): 53.70%; Vitoria (Visit): 20.63%; Draw: 25.67%. For Vitoria (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.85. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.14, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.05%.

Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.77I 56.50%NM 54.86%EV -4.95%E -2.80%K -6.43%G +0.000%5.14I 19.46%NM 18.89%EV +6.05%E +1.18%K +1.46%G +0.088%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.25%EV -5.04%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-23 22:25
LowVig.ag1.77I 56.50%NM 54.56%EV -4.95%E -2.80%K -6.43%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 19.12%EV +4.19%E +0.831%K +1.04%G +0.043%3.67I 27.25%NM 26.31%EV -5.81%E -1.58%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-23 12:20
BetOnline.ag1.77I 56.50%NM 54.56%EV -4.95%E -2.80%K -6.43%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 19.12%EV +4.19%E +0.831%K +1.04%G +0.043%3.67I 27.25%NM 26.31%EV -5.81%E -1.58%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-23 12:20
BetAnything1.77I 56.50%NM 54.56%EV -4.95%E -2.80%K -6.43%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 19.12%EV +4.19%E +0.831%K +1.04%G +0.043%3.67I 27.25%NM 26.31%EV -5.81%E -1.58%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-23 12:20
ATG (SE)1.79I 55.87%NM 54.27%EV -3.87%E -2.16%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.83%EV +1.10%E +0.224%K +0.282%G +0.003%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.90%EV -3.75%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.9%2026-07-23 22:25
Svenska Spel1.79I 55.87%NM 54.27%EV -3.87%E -2.16%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.83%EV +1.10%E +0.224%K +0.282%G +0.003%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.90%EV -3.75%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.9%2026-07-23 22:25
Pinnacle1.78I 56.18%NM 54.24%EV -4.41%E -2.48%K -5.66%G +0.000%4.84I 20.66%NM 19.95%EV -0.138%E -0.029%K -0.036%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.81%EV -4.01%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-23 22:15
Coolbet1.77I 56.50%NM 53.75%EV -4.95%E -2.80%K -6.43%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.82%EV -0.963%E -0.201%K -0.254%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.43%EV -7.60%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-23 21:25
BetRivers1.71I 58.48%NM 54.80%EV -8.17%E -4.78%K -11.51%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.52%EV -0.963%E -0.201%K -0.254%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV -6.32%E -1.73%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-23 22:00
Unibet1.73I 57.80%NM 54.40%EV -7.10%E -4.10%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -2.00%E -0.420%K -0.532%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.78%EV -6.32%E -1.73%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-23 22:25
Casumo1.73I 57.80%NM 54.40%EV -7.10%E -4.10%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -2.00%E -0.420%K -0.532%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.78%EV -6.32%E -1.73%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-23 22:25
Unibet (NL)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.40%EV -7.10%E -4.10%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -2.00%E -0.420%K -0.532%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.78%EV -6.32%E -1.73%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-23 22:25
Grosvenor1.73I 57.80%NM 54.40%EV -7.10%E -4.10%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -2.00%E -0.420%K -0.532%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.78%EV -6.32%E -1.73%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-23 22:25
BetUS1.71I 58.48%NM 54.88%EV -8.17%E -4.78%K -11.51%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -2.00%E -0.420%K -0.532%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -5.04%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-23 22:25
Bovada1.77I 56.50%NM 53.91%EV -4.95%E -2.80%K -6.43%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.30%EV -3.03%E -0.644%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.79%EV -5.04%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-23 22:24
LeoVegas1.75I 57.14%NM 53.81%EV -6.02%E -3.44%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -3.03%E -0.644%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -7.60%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-23 16:20
Unibet (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.29%EV -7.10%E -4.10%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.98%EV -3.03%E -0.644%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.73%EV -6.32%E -1.73%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-23 22:25
betPARX1.73I 57.80%NM 54.29%EV -7.10%E -4.10%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.98%EV -3.03%E -0.644%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.73%EV -6.32%E -1.73%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-23 22:25
Marathon Bet1.73I 57.80%NM 54.02%EV -7.10%E -4.10%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.88%EV -3.03%E -0.644%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.10%EV -8.12%E -2.27%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-23 22:20
TABtouch1.71I 58.48%NM 54.58%EV -8.17%E -4.78%K -11.51%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -3.03%E -0.644%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.57%EV -6.32%E -1.73%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-23 22:25
LeoVegas (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 54.19%EV -8.17%E -4.78%K -11.51%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.71%EV -3.03%E -0.644%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.10%EV -8.89%E -2.50%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-23 22:25
GTbets1.75I 57.14%NM 53.49%EV -6.02%E -3.44%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.68I 21.37%NM 20.00%EV -3.44%E -0.735%K -0.935%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.52%EV -9.40%E -2.66%K -3.72%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-23 22:05
DraftKings1.77I 56.50%NM 53.48%EV -4.95%E -2.80%K -6.43%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.58%EV -5.09%E -1.11%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.94%EV -6.32%E -1.73%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-23 22:05
Codere (IT)1.76I 56.82%NM 53.43%EV -5.49%E -3.12%K -7.22%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -5.09%E -1.11%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.60%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-23 16:20
Unibet (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.57%EV -6.02%E -3.44%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38%EV -5.09%E -1.11%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -7.60%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-23 16:19
Everygame1.73I 57.80%NM 53.86%EV -7.10%E -4.10%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -5.09%E -1.11%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -7.60%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-23 22:14
PMU (FR)1.67I 59.88%NM 54.54%EV -10.32%E -6.18%K -15.40%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -5.09%E -1.11%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.66%EV -8.89%E -2.50%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-23 22:25
LiveScore Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 54.19%EV -9.78%E -5.82%K -14.38%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -5.09%E -1.11%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.01%EV -10.17%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-23 22:25
Virgin Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 54.19%EV -9.78%E -5.82%K -14.38%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -5.09%E -1.11%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.01%EV -10.17%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-23 22:25
Fanatics1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -4.95%E -2.80%K -6.43%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -7.15%E -1.59%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -2.47%E -0.650%K -0.882%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-23 21:55
SportsBet1.78I 56.18%NM 53.29%EV -4.41%E -2.48%K -5.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.08%EV -7.15%E -1.59%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.64%EV -5.04%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-23 22:25
betano_uk1.73I 57.80%NM 54.36%EV -7.10%E -4.10%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -7.15%E -1.59%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.47%E -0.650%K -0.882%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-23 22:19
Bet Victor1.73I 57.80%NM 54.36%EV -7.10%E -4.10%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -7.15%E -1.59%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.47%E -0.650%K -0.882%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-23 22:19
Betway1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.02%E -3.44%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -7.15%E -1.59%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -7.60%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-23 21:05
FanDuel1.71I 58.48%NM 54.28%EV -8.17%E -4.78%K -11.51%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -7.15%E -1.59%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -5.04%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-23 22:24
Tipico (DE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -8.71%E -5.12%K -12.44%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -7.15%E -1.59%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -7.60%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-23 21:15
NordicBet1.75I 57.14%NM 53.02%EV -6.02%E -3.44%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.85%EV -8.18%E -1.84%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.13%EV -8.89%E -2.50%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-23 22:25
Betsson1.75I 57.14%NM 53.02%EV -6.02%E -3.44%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.85%EV -8.18%E -1.84%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.13%EV -8.89%E -2.50%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-23 22:25
Coral1.75I 57.14%NM 53.81%EV -6.02%E -3.44%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -9.22%E -2.09%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -2.47%E -0.650%K -0.882%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-23 22:25
BetMGM1.74I 57.47%NM 53.96%EV -6.56%E -3.77%K -8.86%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV -9.22%E -2.09%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.71%EV -2.47%E -0.650%K -0.882%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-23 22:25
Ladbrokes (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.64%EV -6.02%E -3.44%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%EV -9.22%E -2.09%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -3.75%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-23 22:25
Ladbrokes (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.64%EV -6.02%E -3.44%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%EV -9.22%E -2.09%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -3.75%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-23 22:25
Neds1.75I 57.14%NM 53.64%EV -6.02%E -3.44%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%EV -9.22%E -2.09%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -3.75%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-23 22:25
PlayUp1.75I 57.14%NM 52.89%EV -6.02%E -3.44%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -9.22%E -2.09%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.07%EV -8.89%E -2.50%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-23 22:25
Betclic (FR)1.69I 59.17%NM 53.28%EV -9.24%E -5.47%K -13.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.47%EV -9.22%E -2.09%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 26.25%EV -11.97%E -3.49%K -4.92%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-23 22:01
Winamax (DE)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.55%EV -8.71%E -5.12%K -12.44%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.17%EV -11.28%E -2.62%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -7.60%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-23 16:20
Unibet (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 53.35%EV -10.86%E -6.54%K -16.45%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.60%EV -11.28%E -2.62%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -12.74%E -3.75%K -5.31%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-23 22:05
PointsBet (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.24%EV -6.02%E -3.44%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV -12.31%E -2.90%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -3.75%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-23 22:25
Bet Right1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -6.02%E -3.44%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -13.34%E -3.18%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -3.75%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-23 22:25
Betr (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.92%EV -6.02%E -3.44%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.05%EV -13.34%E -3.18%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -5.04%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-23 22:10
William Hill1.73I 57.80%NM 53.21%EV -7.10%E -4.10%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -13.34%E -3.18%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -5.04%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-23 22:25
888sport (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 53.21%EV -7.10%E -4.10%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -13.34%E -3.18%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -5.04%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-23 22:25
betfred_uk1.73I 57.80%NM 52.84%EV -7.10%E -4.10%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -13.34%E -3.18%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -7.60%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-23 21:54
Paddy Power1.73I 57.80%NM 52.46%EV -7.10%E -4.10%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV -13.34%E -3.18%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -10.17%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-23 22:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 52.46%EV -7.10%E -4.10%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV -13.34%E -3.18%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -10.17%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-23 22:25
BoyleSports1.67I 59.88%NM 54.26%EV -10.32%E -6.18%K -15.40%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.58%EV -13.34%E -3.18%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -3.75%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-23 22:05
Winamax (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 52.82%EV -10.86%E -6.54%K -16.45%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.39%EV -15.41%E -3.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.79%EV -12.74%E -3.75%K -5.31%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-23 16:20
888sport1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -6.02%E -3.44%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -17.47%E -4.37%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -5.04%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-23 22:25
Mr Green (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -6.02%E -3.44%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -17.47%E -4.37%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -5.04%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-23 22:25
Sky Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 51.95%EV -8.71%E -5.12%K -12.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.08%EV -17.47%E -4.37%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.97%EV -12.74%E -3.75%K -5.31%G +0.000%13.2%2026-07-23 22:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.83I 54.64%NM 54.27%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.27%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.46%0.7%2026-07-23 22:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.84I 54.35%NM 53.90%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.43%0.8%2026-07-23 22:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.84I 54.35%NM 53.90%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.43%0.8%2026-07-23 22:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.84I 54.35%NM 53.90%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.43%0.8%2026-07-23 22:20
Smarkets1.82I 54.95%NM 54.18%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.54%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.28%1.4%2026-07-23 22:25
Kalshi1.79I 55.87%NM 53.77%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.22%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.01%3.9%2026-07-23 22:25