The School of Odds

Botafogo v Vitoria

2026-07-23 22:30 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Botafogo (Local)

Prediction 52.76%1.90fair odd
EV -4.51%
Edge -2.49%
Kelly -5.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.70%52.83%52.72%54.18%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.581.731.751.8163%58%57%55%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Vitoria (Visit)

Prediction 21.56%4.64fair odd
EV -0.819%
Edge -0.178%
Kelly -0.227%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.06%21.48%21.38%23.94%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.604.254.304.6028%24%23%22%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 25.68%3.89fair odd
EV -1.12%
Edge -0.292%
Kelly -0.394%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.66%25.69%25.90%26.82%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.253.533.553.8531%28%28%26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.81I 55.25%NM 53.04%EV -4.51%E -2.49%K -5.57%G +0.000%4.57I 21.88%NM 21.01%EV -1.47%E -0.321%K -0.410%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.95%EV -4.98%E -1.34%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-13 21:50
SportsBet1.81I 55.25%NM 52.57%EV -4.51%E -2.49%K -5.57%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.39%EV -8.37%E -1.97%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.04%EV -2.41%E -0.634%K -0.860%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-13 16:45
Coolbet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.74%EV -5.04%E -2.80%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%EV -9.44%E -2.25%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -1.12%E -0.292%K -0.394%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-13 17:24
Fanatics1.80I 55.56%NM 52.12%EV -5.04%E -2.80%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -7.29%E -1.69%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -7.54%E -2.10%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-13 17:00
Bet Right1.78I 56.18%NM 52.39%EV -6.09%E -3.42%K -7.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -11.60%E -2.83%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -3.69%E -0.984%K -1.34%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-13 16:55
FanDuel1.77I 56.50%NM 52.99%EV -6.62%E -3.74%K -8.60%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -9.44%E -2.25%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -2.41%E -0.634%K -0.860%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-13 16:50
Marathon Bet1.76I 56.82%NM 53.07%EV -7.15%E -4.06%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.99%EV -4.05%E -0.911%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.54%E -2.10%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-13 21:48
William Hill1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.68%E -4.39%K -10.23%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -6.64%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -12.68%E -3.73%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-13 21:05
888sport1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.68%E -4.39%K -10.23%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -6.64%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -12.68%E -3.73%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-13 21:05
Mr Green (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.68%E -4.39%K -10.23%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -6.64%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -12.68%E -3.73%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-13 21:04
888sport (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.68%E -4.39%K -10.23%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -6.64%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -12.68%E -3.73%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-13 21:04
Paddy Power1.73I 57.80%NM 52.27%EV -8.73%E -5.05%K -11.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -13.76%E -3.44%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -7.54%E -2.10%K -2.90%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-13 16:49
Codere (IT)1.71I 58.48%NM 53.95%EV -9.79%E -5.72%K -13.78%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.06%EV -0.819%E -0.178%K -0.227%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -8.83%E -2.49%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-13 18:24
LeoVegas1.70I 58.82%NM 54.18%EV -10.31%E -6.07%K -14.73%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.24%EV -1.90%E -0.417%K -0.534%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -7.54%E -2.10%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-13 18:24
Sky Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 50.70%EV -10.31%E -6.07%K -14.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.94%EV -22.38%E -6.22%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.35%EV -12.68%E -3.73%K -5.28%G +0.000%16.0%2026-07-13 16:49
Winamax (DE)1.62I 61.73%NM 53.43%EV -14.53%E -8.97%K -23.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.11%EV -11.60%E -2.83%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.46%EV -12.68%E -3.73%K -5.28%G +0.000%15.5%2026-07-13 18:25
Unibet (FR)1.61I 62.11%NM 53.70%EV -15.06%E -9.36%K -24.69%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.11%EV -7.29%E -1.69%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.20%EV -15.25%E -4.62%K -6.63%G +0.000%15.7%2026-07-13 18:25
Betclic (FR)1.61I 62.11%NM 53.57%EV -15.06%E -9.36%K -24.69%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.29%EV -8.37%E -1.97%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.14%EV -15.25%E -4.62%K -6.63%G +0.000%15.9%2026-07-13 18:24
Winamax (FR)1.58I 63.29%NM 53.02%EV -16.64%E -10.53%K -28.70%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.21%EV -14.83%E -3.76%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.77%EV -16.53%E -5.09%K -7.35%G +0.000%19.4%2026-07-13 18:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.62I 61.73%NM 52.81%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.87%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.32%16.9%2026-07-13 18:25