Botafogo v Santos

Kickoff: 2026-07-22 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

49%

23%

28%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Botafogo (Local)

Prediction 48.90%2.05fair odd

EV -3.67%

Edge -1.86%

Kelly -3.78%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

47.40%49.25%48.90%50.25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.731.851.901.9758%54%53%51%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Santos (Visit)

Prediction 23.15%4.32fair odd

EV +0.236%

Edge +0.055%

Kelly +0.071%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

21.84%23.15%23.15%25.41%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

3.403.883.804.3329%26%26%23%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 27.95%3.58fair odd

EV +3.42%

Edge +0.926%

Kelly +1.27%

Growth +0.043%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

25.50%27.60%27.95%28.78%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.883.273.253.7035%31%31%27%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Draw ▼	Margin	Updated
SportsBet	1.90I 52.63%NM 49.66%EV -7.09%E -3.73%K -7.88%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.83%EV -12.03%E -3.17%K -4.30%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.50%EV +3.42%E +0.926%K +1.27%G +0.043%	6.0%	2026-06-09 12:39
FanDuel	1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -10.52%E -5.75%K -12.67%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -12.03%E -3.17%K -4.30%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV +0.629%E +0.175%K +0.242%G +0.002%	8.7%	2026-06-09 12:38
Paddy Power	1.85I 54.05%NM 48.96%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -16.66%E -4.63%K -6.41%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -2.17%E -0.619%K -0.866%G +0.000%	10.4%	2026-06-09 12:39
1xBet	1.97I 50.76%NM 48.76%EV -3.67%E -1.86%K -3.78%G +0.000%	4.09I 24.45%NM 23.48%EV -5.32%E -1.30%K -1.72%G +0.000%	3.46I 28.90%NM 27.76%EV -3.28%E -0.949%K -1.33%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-06-05 10:49
Marathon Bet	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -6.60%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000%	3.98I 25.13%NM 23.43%EV -7.87%E -1.98%K -2.64%G +0.000%	3.36I 29.76%NM 27.75%EV -6.08%E -1.81%K -2.58%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-06-05 10:39
Coral	1.91I 52.36%NM 49.51%EV -6.60%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000%	4.33I 23.09%NM 21.84%EV +0.236%E +0.055%K +0.071%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.65%EV -7.76%E -2.35%K -3.37%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-06-03 18:39
Ladbrokes (UK)	1.91I 52.36%NM 49.51%EV -6.60%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000%	4.33I 23.09%NM 21.84%EV +0.236%E +0.055%K +0.071%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.65%EV -7.76%E -2.35%K -3.37%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-06-03 21:19
BetMGM	1.91I 52.36%NM 49.51%EV -6.60%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000%	4.33I 23.09%NM 21.84%EV +0.236%E +0.055%K +0.071%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.65%EV -7.76%E -2.35%K -3.37%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-06-04 03:19
Neds	1.90I 52.63%NM 49.22%EV -7.09%E -3.73%K -7.88%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -1.62%E -0.380%K -0.497%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -9.15%E -2.82%K -4.07%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-06-03 18:39
Ladbrokes (AU)	1.90I 52.63%NM 49.22%EV -7.09%E -3.73%K -7.88%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -1.62%E -0.380%K -0.497%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -9.15%E -2.82%K -4.07%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-06-03 18:40
Codere (IT)	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.42%EV -6.60%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -7.40%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -9.15%E -2.82%K -4.07%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-06-03 18:40
Sky Bet	1.80I 55.56%NM 48.00%EV -11.98%E -6.66%K -14.98%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 25.41%EV -21.29%E -6.26%K -8.87%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 26.59%EV -9.15%E -2.82%K -4.07%G +0.000%	15.7%	2026-06-09 12:39
Winamax (DE)	1.80I 55.56%NM 48.44%EV -11.98%E -6.66%K -14.98%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 23.89%EV -15.51%E -4.25%K -5.85%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 27.68%EV -11.95%E -3.79%K -5.56%G +0.000%	14.7%	2026-06-03 18:40
Unibet (FR)	1.77I 56.50%NM 48.35%EV -13.45%E -7.60%K -17.47%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 23.13%EV -14.35%E -3.88%K -5.31%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 28.52%EV -16.14%E -5.38%K -8.07%G +0.000%	16.9%	2026-06-03 18:40
Winamax (FR)	1.76I 56.82%NM 47.86%EV -13.94%E -7.92%K -18.34%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 24.07%EV -18.98%E -5.42%K -7.59%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 28.08%EV -16.14%E -5.38%K -8.07%G +0.000%	18.7%	2026-06-03 18:39
Betclic (FR)	1.75I 57.14%NM 48.32%EV -14.43%E -8.24%K -19.24%G +0.000%	3.63I 27.55%NM 23.30%EV -15.97%E -4.40%K -6.07%G +0.000%	2.98I 33.56%NM 28.38%EV -16.70%E -5.60%K -8.43%G +0.000%	18.2%	2026-06-03 18:38
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)	1.73I 57.80%NM 47.40%EV -15.41%E -8.91%K -21.10%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 24.12%EV -21.29%E -6.26%K -8.87%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 28.48%EV -19.50%E -6.77%K -10.37%G +0.000%	21.9%	2026-06-09 12:39

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.