The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Botafogo v Santos

Kickoff: 2026-07-22 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Botafogo (Local)

Prediction 48.90%2.05fair odd
EV -3.67%
Edge -1.86%
Kelly -3.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.40%49.25%48.90%50.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.851.901.9757.80%53.95%52.63%50.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Santos (Visit)

Prediction 23.15%4.32fair odd
EV +0.236%
Edge +0.055%
Kelly +0.071%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.84%23.15%23.15%25.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.883.804.3329.41%25.74%26.32%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.95%3.58fair odd
EV +3.42%
Edge +0.926%
Kelly +1.27%
Growth +0.043%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.50%27.60%27.95%28.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.273.253.7034.72%30.61%30.77%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Botafogo (Local): 48.90%; Santos (Visit): 23.15%; Draw: 27.95%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.58. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.42%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.66%EV -7.09%E -3.73%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.83%EV -12.03%E -3.17%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.50%EV +3.42%E +0.926%K +1.27%G +0.043%6.0%2026-06-09 12:39
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -10.52%E -5.75%K -12.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -12.03%E -3.17%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV +0.629%E +0.175%K +0.242%G +0.002%8.7%2026-06-09 12:38
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.96%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -16.66%E -4.63%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -2.17%E -0.619%K -0.866%G +0.000%10.4%2026-06-09 12:39
1xBet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.76%EV -3.67%E -1.86%K -3.78%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.48%EV -5.32%E -1.30%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.76%EV -3.28%E -0.949%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-05 10:49
Marathon Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -6.60%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.43%EV -7.87%E -1.98%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 27.75%EV -6.08%E -1.81%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-05 10:39
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.51%EV -6.60%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.84%EV +0.236%E +0.055%K +0.071%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.65%EV -7.76%E -2.35%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-03 18:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.51%EV -6.60%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.84%EV +0.236%E +0.055%K +0.071%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.65%EV -7.76%E -2.35%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-03 21:19
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.51%EV -6.60%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.84%EV +0.236%E +0.055%K +0.071%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.65%EV -7.76%E -2.35%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-04 03:19
Neds🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.22%EV -7.09%E -3.73%K -7.88%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -1.62%E -0.380%K -0.497%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -9.15%E -2.82%K -4.07%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-03 18:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.22%EV -7.09%E -3.73%K -7.88%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -1.62%E -0.380%K -0.497%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -9.15%E -2.82%K -4.07%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-03 18:40
Codere (IT)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.42%EV -6.60%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -7.40%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -9.15%E -2.82%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-03 18:40
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.00%EV -11.98%E -6.66%K -14.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.41%EV -21.29%E -6.26%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.59%EV -9.15%E -2.82%K -4.07%G +0.000%15.7%2026-06-09 12:39
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.44%EV -11.98%E -6.66%K -14.98%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.89%EV -15.51%E -4.25%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.68%EV -11.95%E -3.79%K -5.56%G +0.000%14.7%2026-06-03 18:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 48.35%EV -13.45%E -7.60%K -17.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.13%EV -14.35%E -3.88%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.52%EV -16.14%E -5.38%K -8.07%G +0.000%16.9%2026-06-03 18:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 47.86%EV -13.94%E -7.92%K -18.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.07%EV -18.98%E -5.42%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.08%EV -16.14%E -5.38%K -8.07%G +0.000%18.7%2026-06-03 18:39
Betclic (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 48.32%EV -14.43%E -8.24%K -19.24%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 23.30%EV -15.97%E -4.40%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 28.38%EV -16.70%E -5.60%K -8.43%G +0.000%18.2%2026-06-03 18:38
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 47.40%EV -15.41%E -8.91%K -21.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.12%EV -21.29%E -6.26%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 28.48%EV -19.50%E -6.77%K -10.37%G +0.000%21.9%2026-06-09 12:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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