The School of OddsBotafogo v Santos
Head to Head
Option 1: Botafogo (Local)
Odds
1.7357.80%Min
1.8553.95%Mean
1.9052.63%Median
1.9750.76%Max
Consensus probabilities
47.40%2.110Min
50.25%1.990Max
49.25%2.030Mean
48.90%2.045Median
48.90%2.045IQM
49.25%2.031Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 1.97 under the IQM model: 48.90%
EV -3.67%Edge -1.86%Kelly -3.78%Growth +0.000%
Option 2: Santos (Visit)
Odds
3.4029.41%Min
3.8825.74%Mean
3.8026.32%Median
4.3323.09%Max
Consensus probabilities
21.84%4.579Min
25.41%3.935Max
23.15%4.320Mean
23.15%4.320Median
23.15%4.320IQM
23.03%4.341Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 4.33 under the IQM model: 23.15%
EV +0.236%Edge +0.055%Kelly +0.071%Growth +0.000%
Option 3: Draw
Odds
2.8834.72%Min
3.2730.61%Mean
3.2530.77%Median
3.7027.03%Max
Consensus probabilities
25.50%3.921Min
28.78%3.475Max
27.60%3.623Mean
27.95%3.577Median
27.95%3.577IQM
27.72%3.608Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 3.70 under the IQM model: 27.95%
EV +3.42%Edge +0.926%Kelly +1.27%Growth +0.043%
Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Botafogo (Local) | Santos (Visit) | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet | 1.90I 52.63% NM 49.66%EV -7.09% E -3.73% K -7.88% G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32% NM 24.83%EV -12.03% E -3.17% K -4.30% G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03% NM 25.50%EV +3.42% E +0.926% K +1.27% G +0.043% | 6.0% | 2026-06-09 12:39 |
| FanDuel | 1.83I 54.64% NM 50.25%EV -10.52% E -5.75% K -12.67% G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32% NM 24.20%EV -12.03% E -3.17% K -4.30% G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78% NM 25.55%EV +0.629% E +0.175% K +0.242% G +0.002% | 8.7% | 2026-06-09 12:38 |
| Paddy Power | 1.85I 54.05% NM 48.96%EV -9.54% E -5.16% K -11.22% G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78% NM 25.16%EV -16.66% E -4.63% K -6.41% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 25.88%EV -2.17% E -0.619% K -0.866% G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-06-09 12:39 |
| 1xBet | 1.97I 50.76% NM 48.76%EV -3.67% E -1.86% K -3.78% G +0.000% | 4.09I 24.45% NM 23.48%EV -5.32% E -1.30% K -1.72% G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90% NM 27.76%EV -3.28% E -0.949% K -1.33% G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-05 10:49 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.91I 52.36% NM 48.82%EV -6.60% E -3.46% K -7.26% G +0.000% | 3.98I 25.13% NM 23.43%EV -7.87% E -1.98% K -2.64% G +0.000% | 3.36I 29.76% NM 27.75%EV -6.08% E -1.81% K -2.58% G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-05 10:39 |
| Coral | 1.91I 52.36% NM 49.51%EV -6.60% E -3.46% K -7.26% G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09% NM 21.84%EV +0.236% E +0.055% K +0.071% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 28.65%EV -7.76% E -2.35% K -3.37% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-03 18:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.91I 52.36% NM 49.51%EV -6.60% E -3.46% K -7.26% G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09% NM 21.84%EV +0.236% E +0.055% K +0.071% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 28.65%EV -7.76% E -2.35% K -3.37% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-03 21:19 |
| BetMGM | 1.91I 52.36% NM 49.51%EV -6.60% E -3.46% K -7.26% G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09% NM 21.84%EV +0.236% E +0.055% K +0.071% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 28.65%EV -7.76% E -2.35% K -3.37% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-04 03:19 |
| Neds | 1.90I 52.63% NM 49.22%EV -7.09% E -3.73% K -7.88% G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53% NM 22.00%EV -1.62% E -0.380% K -0.497% G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 28.78%EV -9.15% E -2.82% K -4.07% G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-03 18:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.90I 52.63% NM 49.22%EV -7.09% E -3.73% K -7.88% G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53% NM 22.00%EV -1.62% E -0.380% K -0.497% G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 28.78%EV -9.15% E -2.82% K -4.07% G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-03 18:40 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.91I 52.36% NM 48.42%EV -6.60% E -3.46% K -7.26% G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00% NM 23.12%EV -7.40% E -1.85% K -2.47% G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 28.46%EV -9.15% E -2.82% K -4.07% G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-06-03 18:40 |
| Sky Bet | 1.80I 55.56% NM 48.00%EV -11.98% E -6.66% K -14.98% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 25.41%EV -21.29% E -6.26% K -8.87% G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 26.59%EV -9.15% E -2.82% K -4.07% G +0.000% | 15.7% | 2026-06-09 12:39 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.80I 55.56% NM 48.44%EV -11.98% E -6.66% K -14.98% G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40% NM 23.89%EV -15.51% E -4.25% K -5.85% G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75% NM 27.68%EV -11.95% E -3.79% K -5.56% G +0.000% | 14.7% | 2026-06-03 18:40 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.77I 56.50% NM 48.35%EV -13.45% E -7.60% K -17.47% G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03% NM 23.13%EV -14.35% E -3.88% K -5.31% G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33% NM 28.52%EV -16.14% E -5.38% K -8.07% G +0.000% | 16.9% | 2026-06-03 18:40 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.76I 56.82% NM 47.86%EV -13.94% E -7.92% K -18.34% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 24.07%EV -18.98% E -5.42% K -7.59% G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33% NM 28.08%EV -16.14% E -5.38% K -8.07% G +0.000% | 18.7% | 2026-06-03 18:39 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.75I 57.14% NM 48.32%EV -14.43% E -8.24% K -19.24% G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55% NM 23.30%EV -15.97% E -4.40% K -6.07% G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56% NM 28.38%EV -16.70% E -5.60% K -8.43% G +0.000% | 18.2% | 2026-06-03 18:38 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.73I 57.80% NM 47.40%EV -15.41% E -8.91% K -21.10% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 24.12%EV -21.29% E -6.26% K -8.87% G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72% NM 28.48%EV -19.50% E -6.77% K -10.37% G +0.000% | 21.9% | 2026-06-09 12:39 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth