Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Botafogo v Fluminense

Kickoff: 2026-08-09 00:00 UTC

Final: Botafogo 1–1 Fluminense

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Botafogo (Local)

Prediction 41.45%2.41fair odd
EV -2.60%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -1.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.47%41.27%41.54%42.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.252.252.3547.62%44.42%44.44%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fluminense (Visit)

Prediction 28.83%3.47fair odd
EV +0.030%
Edge +0.009%
Kelly +0.012%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.27%29.02%28.82%31.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.203.253.4734.72%31.20%30.77%28.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.73%3.36fair odd
EV -1.90%
Edge -0.576%
Kelly -0.826%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.37%29.71%29.64%31.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.143.153.3034.48%31.89%31.75%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Botafogo (Local): 41.45%; Fluminense (Visit): 28.83%; Draw: 29.73%. For Fluminense (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.469. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.470, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.030%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 41.41%EV -3.02%E -1.29%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.93%EV +0.030%E +0.009%K +0.012%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.66%EV -6.06%E -1.92%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-08 23:50
GTbets🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.88%EV -8.82%E -4.01%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.27%EV -0.258%E -0.075%K -0.105%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 29.85%EV -6.06%E -1.92%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 23:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.45%EV -3.43%E -1.47%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.08%EV -0.835%E -0.243%K -0.342%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.47%EV -5.77%E -1.82%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-08 23:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.45%EV -3.43%E -1.47%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.08%EV -0.835%E -0.243%K -0.342%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.47%EV -5.77%E -1.82%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-08 23:55
BetAnything🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.45%EV -3.43%E -1.47%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.08%EV -0.835%E -0.243%K -0.342%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.47%EV -5.77%E -1.82%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-08 23:55
Pinnacle🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.68%EV -3.85%E -1.66%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 28.19%EV -1.12%E -0.327%K -0.462%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 30.13%EV -4.58%E -1.43%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-08 23:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.13%EV -4.67%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.50%EV -1.99%E -0.585%K -0.828%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.37%EV -1.90%E -0.576%K -0.826%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-08 23:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.13%EV -4.67%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.50%EV -1.99%E -0.585%K -0.828%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.37%EV -1.90%E -0.576%K -0.826%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-08 23:45
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.38%EV -4.67%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.41%EV -3.43%E -1.02%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.21%EV -6.36%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 23:25
BetUS🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.38%EV -4.67%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.41%EV -3.43%E -1.02%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.21%EV -6.36%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 23:39
Coolbet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.70%EV -5.92%E -2.61%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.25%EV -3.43%E -1.02%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.05%EV -6.36%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 23:40
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -4.87%E -1.48%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -4.87%E -1.52%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 23:10
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -4.87%E -1.48%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -4.87%E -1.52%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 23:14
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -4.67%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -4.87%E -1.48%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -7.85%E -2.53%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 23:40
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -4.67%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -4.87%E -1.48%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -7.85%E -2.53%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 23:39
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -4.87%E -1.48%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -7.85%E -2.53%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 23:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.26%EV -6.33%E -2.80%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -4.87%E -1.48%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.48%EV -9.04%E -2.95%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 23:55
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.91%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -4.87%E -1.48%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -12.31%E -4.17%K -6.31%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-08 23:45
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.21%EV -4.67%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.17%EV -6.31%E -1.94%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.62%EV -4.87%E -1.52%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-08 23:44
Codere (IT)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.23%EV -5.50%E -2.41%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -6.31%E -1.94%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -6.36%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-08 23:39
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -6.31%E -1.94%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -4.87%E -1.52%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 23:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -6.31%E -1.94%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -4.87%E -1.52%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 23:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -6.31%E -1.94%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -4.87%E -1.52%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 23:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -6.31%E -1.94%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -4.87%E -1.52%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 23:39
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.55%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.31%E -1.94%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -6.36%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 23:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.77%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -6.31%E -1.94%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -6.36%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 23:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.77%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -6.31%E -1.94%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -6.36%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 23:35
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.77%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -6.31%E -1.94%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -6.36%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 23:35
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.77%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -6.31%E -1.94%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -6.36%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 23:35
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.77%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -6.31%E -1.94%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -6.36%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 23:35
betPARX🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.77%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -6.31%E -1.94%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -6.36%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 23:35
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -8.82%E -4.01%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -7.75%E -2.42%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -10.82%E -3.61%K -5.41%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-08 23:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -8.82%E -4.01%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -7.75%E -2.42%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -10.82%E -3.61%K -5.41%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-08 23:50
NordicBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.86%EV -5.50%E -2.41%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -9.19%E -2.92%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -6.36%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 23:55
Betsson🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.86%EV -5.50%E -2.41%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -9.19%E -2.92%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -6.36%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 23:54
BetRivers🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.55%EV -9.65%E -4.43%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.75%EV -9.19%E -2.92%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.70%EV -9.33%E -3.06%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 23:44
TABtouch🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.66%EV -10.06%E -4.64%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.70%EV -9.19%E -2.92%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.64%EV -9.33%E -3.06%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-08 23:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 41.77%EV -10.48%E -4.85%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.64%EV -9.19%E -2.92%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.58%EV -9.33%E -3.06%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-08 23:44
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.46%EV -12.96%E -6.17%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.31%EV -9.19%E -2.92%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.23%EV -9.33%E -3.06%K -4.55%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-08 23:39
Betclic (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.58%EV -10.06%E -4.64%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 28.83%EV -9.77%E -3.12%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.59%EV -9.33%E -3.06%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-08 23:40
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.62%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.01%EV -10.06%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.37%EV -1.90%E -0.576%K -0.826%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 23:33
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.62%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.01%EV -10.06%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.37%EV -1.90%E -0.576%K -0.826%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 23:30
PlayUp🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.47%EV -5.50%E -2.41%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -10.64%E -3.43%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -7.85%E -2.53%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-08 23:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.53%EV -8.82%E -4.01%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.47%EV -10.64%E -3.43%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.00%EV -6.36%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-08 23:40
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -8.82%E -4.01%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -10.64%E -3.43%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -13.79%E -4.76%K -7.26%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-08 23:24
LiveScore Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 41.83%EV -12.13%E -5.72%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.61%EV -10.64%E -3.43%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.56%EV -10.82%E -3.61%K -5.41%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-08 23:35
PMU (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 41.83%EV -12.13%E -5.72%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.61%EV -10.64%E -3.43%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.56%EV -10.82%E -3.61%K -5.41%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-08 23:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 41.83%EV -12.13%E -5.72%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.61%EV -10.64%E -3.43%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.56%EV -10.82%E -3.61%K -5.41%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-08 23:34
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.69%EV -10.89%E -5.07%K -9.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.39%EV -12.08%E -3.96%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -7.85%E -2.53%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-08 23:40
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -4.67%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -13.52%E -4.51%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -7.85%E -2.53%K -3.74%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 23:54
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -4.67%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -13.52%E -4.51%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -7.85%E -2.53%K -3.74%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 23:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -4.67%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -13.52%E -4.51%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -7.85%E -2.53%K -3.74%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 23:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -4.67%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -13.52%E -4.51%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -7.85%E -2.53%K -3.74%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 23:54
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -8.82%E -4.01%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -13.52%E -4.51%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -7.85%E -2.53%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-08 23:50
Bet Right🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -2.60%E -1.11%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -14.96%E -5.07%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -3.39%E -1.04%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 23:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -2.60%E -1.11%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -14.96%E -5.07%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -3.39%E -1.04%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 23:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.47%EV -2.60%E -1.11%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.99%EV -16.40%E -5.66%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -3.39%E -1.04%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-08 23:50
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -4.67%E -2.03%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -16.98%E -5.90%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -4.87%E -1.52%K -2.22%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-08 23:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.66%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.00%0.8%2026-08-08 23:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.66%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.00%0.8%2026-08-08 23:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.66%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.00%0.8%2026-08-08 23:55
Matchbook2.44I 40.98%NM 40.66%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.00%0.8%2026-08-08 23:55
Kalshi2.44I 40.98%NM 40.61%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.67%0.9%2026-08-08 23:55
Smarkets2.42I 41.32%NM 40.86%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.25%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.90%1.1%2026-08-08 23:50

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