The School of Odds

Botafogo v Fluminense

2026-08-09 00:00 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Botafogo (Local)

Prediction 35.51%2.82fair odd
EV -3.06%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.80%35.48%35.51%36.97%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.352.582.622.7342.55%38.80%38.17%36.63%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Fluminense (Visit)

Prediction 35.92%2.78fair odd
EV -3.74%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -2.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.80%35.87%35.89%36.71%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.402.562.602.6841.67%39.02%38.46%37.31%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 28.58%3.50fair odd
EV +0.014%
Edge +0.004%
Kelly +0.005%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.27%28.65%28.60%30.39%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.003.203.203.5033.33%31.26%31.25%28.57%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Coolbet2.65I 37.74%NM 36.02%EV -5.90%E -2.23%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.71%EV -6.62%E -2.54%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.27%EV +0.014%E +0.004%K +0.005%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-27 16:20
SportsBet2.65I 37.74%NM 35.73%EV -5.90%E -2.23%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -6.62%E -2.54%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -2.84%E -0.836%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-27 14:40
FanDuel2.65I 37.74%NM 35.73%EV -5.90%E -2.23%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -6.62%E -2.54%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -2.84%E -0.836%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-27 14:43
Bet Right2.60I 38.46%NM 35.77%EV -7.68%E -2.95%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.47%EV -8.41%E -3.30%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -4.27%E -1.28%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-27 16:20
1xBet2.73I 36.63%NM 35.17%EV -3.06%E -1.12%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.82%EV -3.74%E -1.40%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 29.01%EV -5.42%E -1.64%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-27 16:45
Fanatics2.65I 37.74%NM 35.43%EV -5.90%E -2.23%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.11%EV -6.62%E -2.54%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -5.70%E -1.73%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-27 14:59
Codere (IT)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -7.68%E -2.95%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -6.62%E -2.54%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -7.13%E -2.19%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-27 14:40
Paddy Power2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -11.23%E -4.49%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -10.21%E -4.08%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -7.13%E -2.19%K -3.17%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-27 15:09
Marathon Bet2.65I 37.74%NM 35.18%EV -5.90%E -2.23%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.86%EV -6.62%E -2.54%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.96%EV -7.99%E -2.48%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-27 16:25
NordicBet2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -6.97%E -2.66%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -5.90%E -2.25%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -8.56%E -2.67%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-27 14:40
Betsson2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -6.97%E -2.66%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -5.90%E -2.25%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -8.56%E -2.67%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-27 14:39
LeoVegas2.55I 39.22%NM 35.75%EV -9.46%E -3.71%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.75%EV -8.41%E -3.30%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -8.56%E -2.67%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-27 14:40
Winamax (DE)2.40I 41.67%NM 36.21%EV -14.78%E -6.16%K -10.56%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.21%EV -13.80%E -5.75%K -9.86%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.59%EV -9.99%E -3.17%K -4.65%G +0.000%15.1%2026-07-27 14:40
Unibet (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 36.97%EV -16.56%E -7.05%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.46%EV -12.00%E -4.90%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.58%EV -9.99%E -3.17%K -4.65%G +0.000%15.1%2026-07-27 16:20
Winamax (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 36.05%EV -14.78%E -6.16%K -10.56%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.05%EV -13.80%E -5.75%K -9.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -11.42%E -3.68%K -5.44%G +0.000%15.6%2026-07-27 16:50
888sport2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.97%E -2.66%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -5.90%E -2.25%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -14.27%E -4.76%K -7.14%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-27 15:25
William Hill2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.97%E -2.66%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -5.90%E -2.25%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -14.27%E -4.76%K -7.14%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-27 15:25
Mr Green (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.97%E -2.66%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -5.90%E -2.25%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -14.27%E -4.76%K -7.14%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-27 15:25
888sport (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.97%E -2.66%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -5.90%E -2.25%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -14.27%E -4.76%K -7.14%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-27 15:25
Sky Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 35.24%EV -13.01%E -5.31%K -8.97%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.98%EV -13.80%E -5.75%K -9.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.78%EV -14.27%E -4.76%K -7.14%G +0.000%15.8%2026-07-27 14:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-27 15:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-27 15:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-27 15:10