The School of Odds
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Botafogo v Atletico Mineiro

Kickoff: 2026-11-05 00:30 UTC

Final: Botafogo 1–0 Atletico Mineiro

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Botafogo (Local)

Prediction 58.64%1.71fair odd
EV -2.65%
Edge -1.60%
Kelly -4.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.60%58.72%58.72%61.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.591.601.6669.93%62.85%62.50%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atletico Mineiro (Visit)

Prediction 18.28%5.47fair odd
EV +8.77%
Edge +1.47%
Kelly +1.77%
Growth +0.155%

assuming max odds 5.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.99%18.21%18.16%19.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.355.025.005.9522.99%19.93%20.00%16.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.07%4.33fair odd
EV +1.53%
Edge +0.347%
Kelly +0.449%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.22%23.07%23.12%24.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.554.014.004.4028.17%24.93%25.00%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Botafogo (Local): 58.64%; Atletico Mineiro (Visit): 18.28%; Draw: 23.07%. For Atletico Mineiro (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.47. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.77%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.37%EV -9.10%E -5.87%K -16.55%G +0.000%5.95I 16.81%NM 15.99%EV +8.77%E +1.47%K +1.77%G +0.155%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -3.09%E -0.735%K -0.965%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-04 21:15
Pinnacle🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.32%EV -4.41%E -2.70%K -7.00%G +0.000%5.51I 18.15%NM 17.55%EV +0.728%E +0.132%K +0.162%G +0.001%4.18I 23.92%NM 23.13%EV -3.55%E -0.849%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.4%2026-11-05 00:15
LowVig.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.68%EV -5.00%E -3.08%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.58%EV +0.546%E +0.099%K +0.121%G +0.001%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.75%EV -1.94%E -0.455%K -0.595%G +0.000%3.4%2026-11-05 00:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.68%EV -5.00%E -3.08%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.58%EV +0.546%E +0.099%K +0.121%G +0.001%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.75%EV -1.94%E -0.455%K -0.595%G +0.000%3.4%2026-11-05 00:20
BetAnything🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.68%EV -5.00%E -3.08%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.58%EV +0.546%E +0.099%K +0.121%G +0.001%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.75%EV -1.94%E -0.455%K -0.595%G +0.000%3.4%2026-11-05 00:20
BetUS🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.60%EV -7.93%E -5.05%K -13.91%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.01%EV +0.546%E +0.099%K +0.121%G +0.001%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -7.70%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-04 23:54
SportsBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.65%EV -5.00%E -3.08%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.60%EV -1.28%E -0.237%K -0.291%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.75%EV -7.70%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-05 00:20
FanDuel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.41%EV -7.93%E -5.05%K -13.91%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.27%EV -1.28%E -0.237%K -0.291%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -7.70%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-05 00:19
1xBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.76%EV -2.65%E -1.60%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.32I 18.80%NM 18.02%EV -2.74%E -0.516%K -0.635%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 24.21%EV -8.63%E -2.18%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-05 00:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 59.05%EV -2.65%E -1.60%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.67%EV -4.02%E -0.767%K -0.947%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.28%EV +1.53%E +0.347%K +0.449%G +0.007%2.0%2026-11-04 23:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 59.05%EV -2.65%E -1.60%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.67%EV -4.02%E -0.767%K -0.947%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.28%EV +1.53%E +0.347%K +0.449%G +0.007%2.0%2026-11-04 23:55
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.70%EV -5.00%E -3.08%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.11%EV -4.02%E -0.767%K -0.947%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -5.40%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-05 00:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.32%EV -6.17%E -3.86%K -10.28%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV -4.02%E -0.767%K -0.947%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%EV -3.09%E -0.735%K -0.965%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-04 23:55
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.32%EV -6.17%E -3.86%K -10.28%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV -4.02%E -0.767%K -0.947%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%EV -3.09%E -0.735%K -0.965%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-04 23:55
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.85%EV -5.58%E -3.47%K -9.15%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.05%EV -4.02%E -0.767%K -0.947%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.11%EV -5.40%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-04 23:54
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.15%EV -6.75%E -4.25%K -11.45%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%EV -4.02%E -0.767%K -0.947%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.94%EV -5.40%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-05 00:25
LeoVegas🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.59%EV -5.00%E -3.08%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.25%EV -4.94%E -0.950%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15%EV -5.40%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-05 00:20
Codere (IT)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.26%EV -5.00%E -3.08%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.15%EV -4.94%E -0.950%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -7.70%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-04 23:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.12%EV -12.03%E -8.02%K -24.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.34%EV -4.94%E -0.950%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -7.70%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000%10.9%2026-11-05 00:10
GTbets🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.24%EV -5.00%E -3.08%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.19I 19.27%NM 18.18%EV -5.12%E -0.987%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -7.70%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-05 00:25
MyBookie.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.54%EV -5.58%E -3.47%K -9.15%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.48%EV -6.77%E -1.33%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.99%EV -5.40%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.1%2026-11-04 23:54
picklebet_au🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -6.17%E -3.86%K -10.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -8.59%E -1.72%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -3.09%E -0.735%K -0.965%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-04 23:55
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.99%EV -5.58%E -3.47%K -9.15%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -8.59%E -1.72%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -7.70%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-05 00:25
Bovada🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -6.17%E -3.86%K -10.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -8.59%E -1.72%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -7.70%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-05 00:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -6.17%E -3.86%K -10.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -8.59%E -1.72%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -7.70%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-04 23:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -6.17%E -3.86%K -10.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -8.59%E -1.72%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -7.70%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-04 23:55
Bet Right🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.97%EV -6.17%E -3.86%K -10.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -8.59%E -1.72%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.48%EV -8.86%E -2.24%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-04 23:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.79%EV -6.17%E -3.86%K -10.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.49%EV -8.59%E -1.72%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.71%EV -10.01%E -2.57%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-04 23:55
TAB🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.79%EV -6.17%E -3.86%K -10.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.49%EV -8.59%E -1.72%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.71%EV -10.01%E -2.57%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-05 00:24
PlayUp🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.45%EV -7.34%E -4.65%K -12.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.47%EV -8.59%E -1.72%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.09%EV -7.70%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-05 00:25
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -7.93%E -5.05%K -13.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -8.59%E -1.72%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -12.32%E -3.24%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.0%2026-11-05 00:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -7.93%E -5.05%K -13.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -8.59%E -1.72%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -12.32%E -3.24%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.0%2026-11-05 00:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.20%EV -6.17%E -3.86%K -10.28%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.81%EV -9.51%E -1.92%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.99%EV -6.55%E -1.62%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-05 00:25
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.83%EV -7.34%E -4.65%K -12.66%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.78%EV -9.51%E -1.92%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.40%EV -4.24%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-05 00:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.25%EV -6.17%E -3.86%K -10.28%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -10.42%E -2.13%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -5.40%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-04 23:55
Casumo🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.25%EV -6.17%E -3.86%K -10.28%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -10.42%E -2.13%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -5.40%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-04 23:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.25%EV -6.17%E -3.86%K -10.28%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -10.42%E -2.13%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -5.40%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-04 23:55
Unibet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.25%EV -6.17%E -3.86%K -10.28%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -10.42%E -2.13%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -5.40%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-04 23:55
betPARX🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.25%EV -6.17%E -3.86%K -10.28%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -10.42%E -2.13%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -5.40%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-04 23:55
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.39%EV -7.34%E -4.65%K -12.66%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.83%EV -10.42%E -2.13%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.78%EV -6.55%E -1.62%K -2.15%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-05 00:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.60%EV -3.24%E -1.96%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -12.25%E -2.55%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.95%EV -10.01%E -2.57%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-04 23:55
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.60%EV -3.24%E -1.96%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -12.25%E -2.55%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.95%EV -10.01%E -2.57%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-04 23:55
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.70%EV -5.00%E -3.08%K -8.06%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -12.25%E -2.55%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -12.32%E -3.24%K -4.40%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-05 00:25
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.85%EV -5.58%E -3.47%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -12.25%E -2.55%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -12.32%E -3.24%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-05 00:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.85%EV -5.58%E -3.47%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -12.25%E -2.55%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -12.32%E -3.24%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-05 00:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.85%EV -5.58%E -3.47%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -12.25%E -2.55%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -12.32%E -3.24%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-05 00:25
Grosvenor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -7.93%E -5.05%K -13.91%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -12.25%E -2.55%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -7.70%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-04 23:55
Sky Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.91%EV -10.27%E -6.71%K -19.38%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.46%EV -12.25%E -2.55%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.63%EV -13.47%E -3.59%K -4.90%G +0.000%12.9%2026-11-04 23:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.40%EV -8.51%E -5.46%K -15.20%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.38%EV -14.08%E -3.00%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.22%EV -5.40%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000%9.8%2026-11-04 23:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.75%EV -7.93%E -5.05%K -13.91%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.29%EV -14.08%E -3.00%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.96%EV -8.86%E -2.24%K -3.00%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-04 23:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.75%EV -7.93%E -5.05%K -13.91%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.29%EV -14.08%E -3.00%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.96%EV -8.86%E -2.24%K -3.00%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-05 00:00
BetRivers🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.75%EV -7.93%E -5.05%K -13.91%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.29%EV -14.08%E -3.00%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.96%EV -8.86%E -2.24%K -3.00%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-04 23:55
TABtouch🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.91%EV -8.51%E -5.46%K -15.20%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.22%EV -14.08%E -3.00%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.87%EV -8.86%E -2.24%K -3.00%G +0.000%10.7%2026-11-04 23:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.50%EV -8.51%E -5.46%K -15.20%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.50%EV -15.91%E -3.46%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.00%EV -10.01%E -2.57%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.5%2026-11-04 23:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.64%EV -9.69%E -6.29%K -17.94%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.30%EV -15.91%E -3.46%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.06%EV -11.16%E -2.90%K -3.92%G +0.000%12.6%2026-11-04 23:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 57.86%EV -12.03%E -8.02%K -24.07%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.87%EV -15.91%E -3.46%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 23.27%EV -13.93%E -3.74%K -5.10%G +0.000%15.2%2026-11-05 00:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 57.46%EV -10.86%E -7.14%K -20.88%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.85%EV -19.56%E -4.45%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.69%EV -11.16%E -2.90%K -3.92%G +0.000%14.5%2026-11-04 23:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 57.75%EV -16.14%E -11.29%K -37.53%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 18.99%EV -20.48%E -4.71%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 23.26%EV -18.09%E -5.09%K -7.09%G +0.000%21.1%2026-11-04 23:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.86%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.45%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.69%0.5%2026-11-05 00:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.86%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.45%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.69%0.5%2026-11-05 00:25
Matchbook◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.71%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.61%0.8%2026-11-05 00:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.71%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.61%0.8%2026-11-05 00:25
Kalshi◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.83%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.79%0.9%2026-11-05 00:25
Smarkets◎1.68I 59.52%NM 58.49%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.55%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.97%1.8%2026-11-05 00:25

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