La escuela de los momios

Bahia v Vitoria

Inicio: 2026-03-11 23:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

60 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Bahia (Local)

Predicción 54.87%1.82momio equitativo
EV -3.98%
Ventaja -2.27%
Kelly -5.30%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
52.24%54.84%54.88%56.06%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.541.691.701.7564.94%59.34%58.82%57.14%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Vitoria (Visitante)

Predicción 18.92%5.29momio equitativo
EV +4.04%
Ventaja +0.734%
Kelly +0.897%
Crecimiento +0.036%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.53%18.94%18.85%20.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.304.954.955.5023.26%20.19%20.20%18.18%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.21%3.81momio equitativo
EV -1.70%
Ventaja -0.453%
Kelly -0.617%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.31%26.22%26.27%28.21%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.533.553.7533.33%28.30%28.17%26.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (60 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Svenska Spel1.72I 58.14%NM 56.06%EV -5.62%E -3.27%K -7.81%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.53%EV +4.04%E +0.734%K +0.897%G +0.036%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.41%EV -4.32%E -1.18%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-11 22:20
ATG (SE)1.72I 58.14%NM 56.06%EV -5.62%E -3.27%K -7.81%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.53%EV +4.04%E +0.734%K +0.897%G +0.036%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.41%EV -4.32%E -1.18%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-11 22:20
Pinnacle1.73I 57.80%NM 55.75%EV -5.07%E -2.93%K -6.95%G +0.000%5.39I 18.55%NM 17.89%EV +1.96%E +0.363%K +0.445%G +0.009%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.35%EV -4.06%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-11 22:39
1xBet1.74I 57.47%NM 55.71%EV -4.53%E -2.60%K -6.12%G +0.000%5.38I 18.59%NM 18.02%EV +1.77%E +0.328%K +0.403%G +0.007%3.69I 27.10%NM 26.27%EV -3.27%E -0.886%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-11 22:49
Casumo1.68I 59.52%NM 56.06%EV -7.82%E -4.65%K -11.50%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.77%EV +0.253%E +0.048%K +0.059%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -5.63%E -1.56%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-11 22:20
Unibet (SE)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.06%EV -7.82%E -4.65%K -11.50%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.77%EV +0.253%E +0.048%K +0.059%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -5.63%E -1.56%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-11 22:20
Grosvenor1.68I 59.52%NM 56.06%EV -7.82%E -4.65%K -11.50%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.77%EV +0.253%E +0.048%K +0.059%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -5.63%E -1.56%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-11 22:20
Unibet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.06%EV -7.82%E -4.65%K -11.50%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.77%EV +0.253%E +0.048%K +0.059%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -5.63%E -1.56%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-11 22:20
Unibet (NL)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.06%EV -7.82%E -4.65%K -11.50%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.77%EV +0.253%E +0.048%K +0.059%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -5.63%E -1.56%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-11 22:20
betPARX1.68I 59.52%NM 56.06%EV -7.82%E -4.65%K -11.50%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.77%EV +0.253%E +0.048%K +0.059%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -5.63%E -1.56%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-11 22:20
BetRivers1.67I 59.88%NM 56.01%EV -8.37%E -5.01%K -12.49%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.65%EV +0.253%E +0.048%K +0.059%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV -6.94%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-11 22:20
BetOnline.ag1.71I 58.48%NM 55.53%EV -6.17%E -3.61%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.09%EV -0.693%E -0.132%K -0.163%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.63%E -1.56%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-11 22:34
LowVig.ag1.71I 58.48%NM 55.53%EV -6.17%E -3.61%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.09%EV -0.693%E -0.132%K -0.163%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.63%E -1.56%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-11 22:34
LeoVegas (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -9.46%E -5.74%K -14.56%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.60%EV -0.693%E -0.132%K -0.163%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -8.25%E -2.36%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-11 22:20
Coolbet1.75I 57.14%NM 54.45%EV -3.98%E -2.27%K -5.30%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.32%EV -1.64%E -0.315%K -0.390%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -8.25%E -2.36%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-11 20:14
LeoVegas1.64I 60.98%NM 56.06%EV -10.01%E -6.11%K -15.64%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.68%EV -1.64%E -0.315%K -0.390%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -8.25%E -2.36%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-11 22:20
Bovada1.70I 58.82%NM 55.28%EV -6.72%E -3.95%K -9.60%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.25%EV -2.58%E -0.502%K -0.623%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -6.94%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-11 22:49
BetUS1.70I 58.82%NM 55.28%EV -6.72%E -3.95%K -9.60%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.25%EV -2.58%E -0.502%K -0.623%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -6.94%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-11 22:49
BetAnything1.70I 58.82%NM 55.28%EV -6.72%E -3.95%K -9.60%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.25%EV -2.58%E -0.502%K -0.623%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -6.94%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-11 22:49
FanDuel1.69I 59.17%NM 55.53%EV -7.27%E -4.30%K -10.53%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.40%EV -3.53%E -0.692%K -0.861%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.63%E -1.56%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-11 22:49
TABtouch1.62I 61.73%NM 55.95%EV -11.11%E -6.86%K -17.92%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.77%EV -3.53%E -0.692%K -0.861%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.27%EV -9.56%E -2.77%K -3.90%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-11 22:20
Virgin Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 56.04%EV -12.21%E -7.63%K -20.35%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.58%EV -3.53%E -0.692%K -0.861%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -10.87%E -3.20%K -4.53%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-11 22:20
LiveScore Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 56.04%EV -12.21%E -7.63%K -20.35%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.58%EV -3.53%E -0.692%K -0.861%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -10.87%E -3.20%K -4.53%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-11 22:20
Fanatics1.74I 57.47%NM 54.61%EV -4.53%E -2.60%K -6.12%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.00%EV -5.42%E -1.08%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39%EV -5.63%E -1.56%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-11 22:44
DraftKings1.71I 58.48%NM 55.23%EV -6.17%E -3.61%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -5.42%E -1.08%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.88%EV -4.32%E -1.18%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-11 22:49
SportsBet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.89%EV -5.62%E -3.27%K -7.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -5.42%E -1.08%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -5.63%E -1.56%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-11 22:49
Unibet (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.18%EV -6.72%E -3.95%K -9.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -5.42%E -1.08%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -5.63%E -1.56%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-11 19:30
Everygame1.73I 57.80%NM 54.13%EV -5.07%E -2.93%K -6.95%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.73%EV -5.42%E -1.08%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.14%EV -9.56%E -2.77%K -3.90%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-11 22:49
Betway1.70I 58.82%NM 54.77%EV -6.72%E -3.95%K -9.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -5.42%E -1.08%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -8.25%E -2.36%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-11 22:49
NordicBet1.70I 58.82%NM 54.88%EV -6.72%E -3.95%K -9.60%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.85%EV -6.37%E -1.29%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.28%EV -6.94%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-11 22:49
Marathon Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 54.83%EV -6.72%E -3.95%K -9.60%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.83%EV -6.37%E -1.29%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.33%EV -7.20%E -2.03%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-11 22:49
Betsson1.72I 58.14%NM 54.17%EV -5.62%E -3.27%K -7.81%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.82%EV -6.37%E -1.29%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -9.56%E -2.77%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-11 22:49
GTbets1.72I 58.14%NM 54.86%EV -5.62%E -3.27%K -7.81%G +0.000%4.91I 20.37%NM 19.22%EV -7.12%E -1.45%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.92%EV -4.58%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-11 22:49
Codere (IT)1.71I 58.48%NM 55.02%EV -6.17%E -3.61%K -8.69%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.20%EV -7.31%E -1.49%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.78%EV -4.32%E -1.18%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-11 19:30
Tipico (DE)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.01%EV -8.37%E -5.01%K -12.49%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.75%EV -7.31%E -1.49%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -8.25%E -2.36%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-11 22:44
Coral1.73I 57.80%NM 54.89%EV -5.07%E -2.93%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.78%EV -9.20%E -1.92%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.32%EV -1.70%E -0.453%K -0.617%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-11 22:44
BetMGM1.71I 58.48%NM 54.99%EV -6.17%E -3.61%K -8.69%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -9.20%E -1.92%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -3.01%E -0.813%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-11 22:43
Ladbrokes (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -6.72%E -3.95%K -9.60%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -9.20%E -1.92%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -3.01%E -0.813%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-11 22:45
Neds1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -6.72%E -3.95%K -9.60%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -9.20%E -1.92%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -3.01%E -0.813%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-11 22:39
Ladbrokes (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -6.72%E -3.95%K -9.60%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -9.20%E -1.92%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -3.01%E -0.813%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-11 22:45
Bet Victor1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -6.72%E -3.95%K -9.60%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -9.20%E -1.92%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -3.01%E -0.813%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-11 22:44
888sport1.70I 58.82%NM 53.93%EV -6.72%E -3.95%K -9.60%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.10%EV -9.20%E -1.92%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -10.87%E -3.20%K -4.53%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-11 22:39
William Hill1.70I 58.82%NM 53.93%EV -6.72%E -3.95%K -9.60%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.10%EV -9.20%E -1.92%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -10.87%E -3.20%K -4.53%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-11 22:45
888sport (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.93%EV -6.72%E -3.95%K -9.60%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.10%EV -9.20%E -1.92%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -10.87%E -3.20%K -4.53%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-11 22:49
Mr Green (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.93%EV -6.72%E -3.95%K -9.60%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.10%EV -9.20%E -1.92%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -10.87%E -3.20%K -4.53%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-11 22:49
PointsBet (AU)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.35%EV -5.62%E -3.27%K -7.81%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -10.15%E -2.14%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.63%E -1.56%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-11 21:40
PlayUp1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -6.72%E -3.95%K -9.60%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -10.15%E -2.14%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.25%E -2.36%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-11 22:49
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 54.27%EV -8.37%E -5.01%K -12.49%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.08%EV -10.15%E -2.14%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -10.87%E -3.20%K -4.53%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-11 22:49
Unibet (FR)1.61I 62.11%NM 55.40%EV -11.66%E -7.24%K -19.11%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.98%EV -11.10%E -2.36%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 25.63%EV -8.78%E -2.52%K -3.54%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-11 19:34
Fliff1.65I 60.61%NM 54.55%EV -9.46%E -5.74%K -14.56%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.36%EV -12.04%E -2.59%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.09%EV -9.56%E -2.77%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-11 22:44
Betclic (FR)1.63I 61.35%NM 54.77%EV -10.56%E -6.48%K -16.76%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.20%EV -12.04%E -2.59%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 26.03%EV -10.09%E -2.94%K -4.15%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-11 22:32
Bet Right1.71I 58.48%NM 54.34%EV -6.17%E -3.61%K -8.69%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV -12.99%E -2.82%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.46%EV -4.32%E -1.18%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-11 21:20
Betr (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%EV -6.72%E -3.95%K -9.60%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -12.99%E -2.82%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -5.63%E -1.56%K -2.17%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-11 21:20
Winamax (DE)1.66I 60.24%NM 54.89%EV -8.91%E -5.37%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.81%EV -12.99%E -2.82%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%EV -5.63%E -1.56%K -2.17%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-11 19:30
Sky Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 53.50%EV -8.37%E -5.01%K -12.49%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.42%EV -12.99%E -2.82%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -13.49%E -4.09%K -5.87%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-11 22:49
Parions Sport (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 54.69%EV -11.11%E -6.86%K -17.92%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.26%EV -12.99%E -2.82%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -10.87%E -3.20%K -4.53%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-11 22:34
BoyleSports1.70I 58.82%NM 53.25%EV -6.72%E -3.95%K -9.60%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.12%EV -14.88%E -3.31%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -10.87%E -3.20%K -4.53%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-11 22:44
PMU (FR)1.54I 64.94%NM 54.38%EV -15.50%E -10.06%K -28.70%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.03%EV -16.77%E -3.81%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.59%EV -17.43%E -5.53%K -8.11%G +0.000%19.4%2026-03-11 22:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 52.24%EV -11.11%E -6.86%K -17.92%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 19.55%EV -18.10%E -4.18%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.21%EV -21.36%E -7.12%K -10.68%G +0.000%18.2%2026-03-11 22:50
Winamax (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 54.16%EV -11.11%E -6.86%K -17.92%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.41%EV -18.66%E -4.34%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.43%EV -9.56%E -2.77%K -3.90%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-11 19:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.78I 56.18%NM 55.99%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.12%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.89%0.3%2026-03-11 22:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.78I 56.18%NM 55.99%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.12%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.89%0.3%2026-03-11 22:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.79I 55.87%NM 55.66%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.12%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.22%0.4%2026-03-11 22:49
Matchbook1.77I 56.50%NM 56.13%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.06%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.81%0.7%2026-03-11 22:50
Kalshi1.75I 57.14%NM 55.95%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.62%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.43%2.1%2026-03-11 22:44