The School of Odds
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Bahia v Remo

Kickoff: 2026-09-13 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bahia (Local)

Prediction 63.51%1.57fair odd
EV -3.47%
Edge -2.28%
Kelly -6.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.84%63.34%63.77%65.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.391.461.481.5271.94%68.45%67.57%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Remo (Visit)

Prediction 13.67%7.31fair odd
EV -4.29%
Edge -0.612%
Kelly -0.715%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.23%13.85%13.61%19.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.406.226.227.0022.73%16.07%16.06%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.82%4.38fair odd
EV -1.87%
Edge -0.435%
Kelly -0.567%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.54%22.80%22.62%24.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.983.984.3028.57%25.12%25.16%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bahia (Local): 63.51%; Remo (Visit): 13.67%; Draw: 22.82%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.38. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.30, with an expected value of -1.87%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.09%EV -3.47%E -2.28%K -6.67%G +0.000%6.89I 14.51%NM 13.92%EV -5.79%E -0.841%K -0.983%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.00%EV -4.84%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-01 06:20
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.80%EV -4.74%E -3.16%K -9.48%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -17.96%E -2.99%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -13.28%E -3.50%K -4.74%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-31 16:54
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.80%EV -4.74%E -3.16%K -9.48%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -17.96%E -2.99%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -13.28%E -3.50%K -4.74%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-31 16:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.80%EV -4.74%E -3.16%K -9.48%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -17.96%E -2.99%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -13.28%E -3.50%K -4.74%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-31 16:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.80%EV -4.74%E -3.16%K -9.48%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -17.96%E -2.99%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -13.28%E -3.50%K -4.74%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-31 16:54
Coolbet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.28%EV -6.01%E -4.06%K -12.52%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.59%EV -4.29%E -0.612%K -0.715%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.13%EV -1.87%E -0.435%K -0.567%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-31 15:50
Fanatics🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.28%EV -6.01%E -4.06%K -12.52%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.59%EV -4.29%E -0.612%K -0.715%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.13%EV -1.87%E -0.435%K -0.567%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-31 15:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.04%EV -6.01%E -4.06%K -12.52%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.92%EV -8.39%E -1.25%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.04%EV -7.58%E -1.87%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-01 06:12
Betsson🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.42%EV -6.01%E -4.06%K -12.52%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.59%EV -7.02%E -1.03%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.00%EV -12.14%E -3.15%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-31 16:15
NordicBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.42%EV -6.01%E -4.06%K -12.52%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.59%EV -7.02%E -1.03%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.00%EV -12.14%E -3.15%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-31 16:14
Betclic (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 56.84%EV -6.01%E -4.06%K -12.52%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.12%EV -39.84%E -9.05%K -11.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.04%EV -20.13%E -5.75%K -8.05%G +0.000%18.9%2026-08-31 23:55
MyBookie.ag🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.01%EV -6.65%E -4.52%K -14.14%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.94%EV -15.23%E -2.46%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.05%EV -4.15%E -0.989%K -1.30%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-31 15:44
LeoVegas🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.75%EV -6.65%E -4.52%K -14.14%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.76%EV -14.54%E -2.33%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.50%EV -6.44%E -1.57%K -2.08%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-31 17:00
SportsBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.60%EV -7.28%E -4.99%K -15.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -4.29%E -0.612%K -0.715%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.93%EV -1.87%E -0.435%K -0.567%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 15:45
FanDuel🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.23%EV -9.82%E -6.92%K -23.38%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.23%EV -4.29%E -0.612%K -0.715%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.54%EV -1.87%E -0.435%K -0.567%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-31 15:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 62.16%EV -10.46%E -7.42%K -25.50%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.93%EV -24.80%E -4.51%K -5.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.91%EV -8.72%E -2.18%K -2.91%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-31 15:45
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.88%EV -11.09%E -7.92%K -27.73%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.76%EV -11.12%E -1.71%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -8.72%E -2.18%K -2.91%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-31 15:48
Winamax (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 61.78%EV -11.09%E -7.92%K -27.73%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.32%EV -27.53%E -5.19%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.90%EV -9.86%E -2.50%K -3.34%G +0.000%15.6%2026-08-31 15:45
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 61.43%EV -11.09%E -7.92%K -27.73%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.64%EV -24.80%E -4.51%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.93%EV -14.42%E -3.85%K -5.24%G +0.000%16.3%2026-08-31 15:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 61.96%EV -11.73%E -8.44%K -30.07%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.38%EV -23.43%E -4.18%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.66%EV -13.28%E -3.50%K -4.74%G +0.000%16.1%2026-08-31 15:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.49I 67.11%NM 63.86%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.27%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.87%5.1%2026-09-01 01:15