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Bahia v Internacional

2026-08-30 20:00 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bahia (Local)

Prediction 49.43%2.02fair odd
EV -3.61%
Edge -1.85%
Kelly -3.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.73%49.31%49.49%50.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.861.871.9557.47%53.72%53.48%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Internacional (Visit)

Prediction 23.64%4.23fair odd
EV -1.64%
Edge -0.394%
Kelly -0.519%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.06%23.69%23.60%24.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.843.904.1628.57%26.05%25.64%24.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.93%3.71fair odd
EV -3.07%
Edge -0.853%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.14%27.00%26.92%28.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.373.403.6032.26%29.71%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Bahia (Local): 49.43%; Internacional (Visit): 23.64%; Draw: 26.93%. For Internacional (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.23. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.16, with an expected value of -1.64%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%EV -3.61%E -1.85%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.73%EV -8.97%E -2.33%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.45%EV -3.07%E -0.853%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-17 18:55
1xBet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.45%EV -4.10%E -2.12%K -4.37%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 23.06%EV -1.64%E -0.394%K -0.519%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.49%EV -6.03%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-18 00:34
SportsBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.00%EV -5.09%E -2.65%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -7.79%E -2.00%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-17 18:55
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -5.59%E -2.93%K -6.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -5.42%E -1.36%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-17 19:09
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.14%EV -5.59%E -2.93%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -7.79%E -2.00%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -12.49%E -3.84%K -5.55%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-17 20:19
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.14%EV -5.59%E -2.93%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -7.79%E -2.00%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -12.49%E -3.84%K -5.55%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-17 20:19
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.14%EV -5.59%E -2.93%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -7.79%E -2.00%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -12.49%E -3.84%K -5.55%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-17 20:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.14%EV -5.59%E -2.93%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -7.79%E -2.00%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -12.49%E -3.84%K -5.55%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-17 20:19
Marathon Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.44%EV -6.58%E -3.48%K -7.39%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.07%EV -4.24%E -1.05%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.48%EV -8.45%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-18 00:29
Bovada🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.82%EV -7.07%E -3.76%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.42%E -1.36%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-17 22:10
Codere (IT)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.62%EV -7.57%E -4.05%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.49%EV -6.60%E -1.67%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.89%EV -7.11%E -2.06%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-17 18:19
MyBookie.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.58%EV -7.57%E -4.05%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.47%EV -6.60%E -1.67%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 26.95%EV -7.38%E -2.14%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-17 18:18
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.46%EV -8.55%E -4.62%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -11.33%E -3.02%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.14%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.30%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-17 18:19
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.69%EV -8.55%E -4.62%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.02%EV -11.33%E -3.02%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.29%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-17 18:58
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -9.54%E -5.21%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -7.79%E -2.00%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.30%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-17 18:58
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.51%EV -9.54%E -5.21%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -10.15%E -2.67%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.45%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-17 19:15
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 47.73%EV -11.03%E -6.13%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.55%EV -17.24%E -4.93%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.72%EV -16.53%E -5.33%K -7.87%G +0.000%16.4%2026-08-17 18:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 49.36%EV -12.01%E -6.75%K -15.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.41%EV -14.88%E -4.13%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.23%EV -9.80%E -2.93%K -4.17%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-17 18:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 48.93%EV -12.01%E -6.75%K -15.40%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.86%EV -13.70%E -3.75%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.21%EV -13.84%E -4.32%K -6.29%G +0.000%14.8%2026-08-17 18:14
Winamax (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 49.08%EV -13.00%E -7.39%K -17.11%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.33%EV -16.06%E -4.52%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.58%EV -12.49%E -3.84%K -5.55%G +0.000%15.8%2026-08-17 18:19
Betclic (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 49.49%EV -13.99%E -8.04%K -18.91%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.59%EV -13.70%E -3.75%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.91%EV -13.84%E -4.32%K -6.29%G +0.000%16.1%2026-08-17 18:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.85I 54.05%NM 47.78%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.89%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.33%13.1%2026-08-18 01:15

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