La escuela de los momios

Bahia v Cruzeiro

Inicio: 2026-05-10 00:00 UTC

Final: Bahia 1–2 Cruzeiro

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Bahia (Local)

Predicción 47.85%2.09momio equitativo
EV -1.42%
Ventaja -0.692%
Kelly -1.34%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.06

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.55%47.74%47.95%48.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.831.951.952.0654.64%51.39%51.28%48.54%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Cruzeiro (Visitante)

Predicción 25.19%3.97momio equitativo
EV -0.515%
Ventaja -0.130%
Kelly -0.175%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.31%25.23%25.18%26.54%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.353.703.733.9529.85%27.01%26.81%25.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.96%3.71momio equitativo
EV -0.510%
Ventaja -0.138%
Kelly -0.190%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.69

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.83%27.03%26.87%28.40%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.413.453.6933.33%29.34%28.99%27.10%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet2.06I 48.54%NM 47.15%EV -1.42%E -0.692%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.54%EV -7.82%E -2.14%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 26.32%EV -0.510%E -0.138%K -0.190%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-09 23:55
ATG (SE)2.04I 49.02%NM 47.44%EV -2.38%E -1.17%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.50%EV -0.515%E -0.130%K -0.175%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.05%EV -6.98%E -2.02%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-09 23:54
Svenska Spel2.04I 49.02%NM 47.44%EV -2.38%E -1.17%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.50%EV -0.515%E -0.130%K -0.175%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.05%EV -6.98%E -2.02%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-09 23:55
Coolbet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.40%EV -4.30%E -2.15%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -1.77%E -0.455%K -0.612%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -9.68%E -2.89%K -4.12%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-09 23:45
Codere (IT)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.16%EV -4.30%E -2.15%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -6.81%E -1.84%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.34%EV -6.98%E -2.02%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-09 23:34
Unibet (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -4.30%E -2.15%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -5.55%E -1.48%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -8.33%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-09 23:30
Betway2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -4.30%E -2.15%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -9.33%E -2.59%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.33%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-09 23:24
Pinnacle1.99I 50.25%NM 48.64%EV -4.77%E -2.40%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.63%EV -1.02%E -0.259%K -0.348%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.74%EV -2.40%E -0.662%K -0.915%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-09 23:49
Unibet1.98I 50.51%NM 47.50%EV -5.25%E -2.65%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.43%EV -3.03%E -0.788%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.07%EV -9.68%E -2.89%K -4.12%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 23:55
BetOnline.ag1.97I 50.76%NM 48.39%EV -5.73%E -2.91%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.76%EV -3.03%E -0.788%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.85%EV -4.28%E -1.21%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-09 23:30
LowVig.ag1.97I 50.76%NM 48.39%EV -5.73%E -2.91%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.76%EV -3.03%E -0.788%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.85%EV -4.28%E -1.21%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-09 23:30
GTbets1.97I 50.76%NM 47.64%EV -5.73%E -2.91%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.16%EV -6.06%E -1.62%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -6.98%E -2.02%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-09 23:29
Casumo1.97I 50.76%NM 47.62%EV -5.73%E -2.91%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.37%EV -3.03%E -0.788%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -9.68%E -2.89%K -4.12%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-09 23:55
Grosvenor1.97I 50.76%NM 47.62%EV -5.73%E -2.91%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.37%EV -3.03%E -0.788%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -9.68%E -2.89%K -4.12%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-09 23:54
Unibet (NL)1.97I 50.76%NM 47.62%EV -5.73%E -2.91%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.37%EV -3.03%E -0.788%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -9.68%E -2.89%K -4.12%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-09 23:54
Unibet (SE)1.97I 50.76%NM 47.62%EV -5.73%E -2.91%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.37%EV -3.03%E -0.788%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -9.68%E -2.89%K -4.12%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-09 23:54
betPARX1.97I 50.76%NM 47.62%EV -5.73%E -2.91%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.37%EV -3.03%E -0.788%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -9.68%E -2.89%K -4.12%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-09 23:54
BetRivers1.97I 50.76%NM 47.27%EV -5.73%E -2.91%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -4.29%E -1.13%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -11.03%E -3.34%K -4.79%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-09 23:30
DraftKings1.95I 51.28%NM 48.33%EV -6.69%E -3.43%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.13%EV -5.55%E -1.48%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.55%EV -4.28%E -1.21%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-09 23:44
SportsBet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -6.69%E -3.43%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -4.29%E -1.13%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -5.63%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 23:34
FanDuel1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -6.69%E -3.43%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -4.29%E -1.13%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -5.63%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 23:35
Fanatics1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -6.69%E -3.43%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -4.29%E -1.13%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -5.63%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 23:39
Coral1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -6.69%E -3.43%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -4.29%E -1.13%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -5.63%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 23:29
BetMGM1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -6.69%E -3.43%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -4.29%E -1.13%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -5.63%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 23:30
Ladbrokes (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -6.69%E -3.43%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -5.55%E -1.48%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -5.63%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-09 23:34
Bet Victor1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -6.69%E -3.43%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -6.81%E -1.84%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -5.63%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 23:55
Everygame1.95I 51.28%NM 47.96%EV -6.69%E -3.43%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94%EV -5.55%E -1.48%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -6.98%E -2.02%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 23:29
Bet Right1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -6.69%E -3.43%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.17%EV -10.59%E -2.98%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.17%EV -4.28%E -1.21%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-09 23:39
Betr (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -6.69%E -3.43%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -9.33%E -2.59%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.63%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-09 23:39
PointsBet (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -6.69%E -3.43%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -9.33%E -2.59%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.63%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-09 23:39
PlayUp1.95I 51.28%NM 47.44%EV -6.69%E -3.43%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.35%EV -8.07%E -2.21%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -8.33%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-09 23:29
William Hill1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -6.69%E -3.43%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -9.33%E -2.59%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -11.03%E -3.34%K -4.79%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-09 23:44
888sport1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -6.69%E -3.43%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -11.85%E -3.39%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.03%E -3.34%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-09 23:54
888sport (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -6.69%E -3.43%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -11.85%E -3.39%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.03%E -3.34%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-09 23:54
Mr Green (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -6.69%E -3.43%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -11.85%E -3.39%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.03%E -3.34%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-09 23:54
Bovada1.94I 51.55%NM 48.43%EV -7.17%E -3.69%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.73%EV -4.29%E -1.13%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -5.63%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-09 23:44
BetUS1.94I 51.55%NM 48.43%EV -7.17%E -3.69%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.73%EV -4.29%E -1.13%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -5.63%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-09 23:50
BetAnything1.94I 51.55%NM 48.43%EV -7.17%E -3.69%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.73%EV -4.29%E -1.13%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -5.63%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-09 23:50
Ladbrokes (AU)1.94I 51.55%NM 48.27%EV -7.17%E -3.69%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -5.55%E -1.48%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -5.63%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-09 23:35
Neds1.94I 51.55%NM 48.27%EV -7.17%E -3.69%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -5.55%E -1.48%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -5.63%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-09 23:34
Marathon Bet1.94I 51.55%NM 48.04%EV -7.17%E -3.69%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.33%EV -7.32%E -1.99%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -5.63%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 23:38
LeoVegas (SE)1.94I 51.55%NM 47.66%EV -7.17%E -3.69%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -4.29%E -1.13%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -11.03%E -3.34%K -4.79%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-09 23:54
Winamax (DE)1.94I 51.55%NM 47.06%EV -7.17%E -3.69%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -11.85%E -3.39%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -8.33%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-09 23:34
LeoVegas1.93I 51.81%NM 47.63%EV -7.65%E -3.96%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -5.55%E -1.48%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -11.03%E -3.34%K -4.79%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-09 23:55
NordicBet1.92I 52.08%NM 48.18%EV -8.12%E -4.23%K -8.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -6.81%E -1.84%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -6.98%E -2.02%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-09 23:54
Betsson1.92I 52.08%NM 48.18%EV -8.12%E -4.23%K -8.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -6.81%E -1.84%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -6.98%E -2.02%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-09 23:44
PMU (FR)1.92I 52.08%NM 47.40%EV -8.12%E -4.23%K -8.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.60%EV -6.81%E -1.84%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.00%EV -12.37%E -3.81%K -5.50%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-09 23:54
TABtouch1.92I 52.08%NM 47.40%EV -8.12%E -4.23%K -8.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.60%EV -6.81%E -1.84%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.00%EV -12.37%E -3.81%K -5.50%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-09 23:55
betfred_uk1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -8.60%E -4.50%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -11.85%E -3.39%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -5.63%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-09 23:40
Tipico (DE)1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -9.08%E -4.78%K -10.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -9.33%E -2.59%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -5.63%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-09 23:34
Paddy Power1.90I 52.63%NM 47.92%EV -9.08%E -4.78%K -10.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -9.33%E -2.59%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -8.33%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-09 23:34
Virgin Bet1.90I 52.63%NM 47.45%EV -9.08%E -4.78%K -10.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.37%EV -6.81%E -1.84%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.18%EV -13.72%E -4.29%K -6.24%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-09 23:54
LiveScore Bet1.90I 52.63%NM 47.45%EV -9.08%E -4.78%K -10.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.37%EV -6.81%E -1.84%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.18%EV -13.72%E -4.29%K -6.24%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-09 23:54
Betclic (FR)1.89I 52.91%NM 47.14%EV -9.56%E -5.06%K -10.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -11.85%E -3.39%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -12.37%E -3.81%K -5.50%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-09 23:38
Winamax (FR)1.88I 53.19%NM 46.74%EV -10.04%E -5.34%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.23%EV -15.63%E -4.66%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.04%EV -12.37%E -3.81%K -5.50%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-09 23:34
BoyleSports1.87I 53.48%NM 48.34%EV -10.52%E -5.62%K -12.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -11.85%E -3.39%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -5.63%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-09 23:30
Sky Bet1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -11.47%E -6.20%K -13.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -11.85%E -3.39%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -11.03%E -3.34%K -4.79%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-09 23:34
Unibet (FR)1.85I 54.05%NM 46.92%EV -11.47%E -6.20%K -13.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.53%EV -14.37%E -4.23%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.55%EV -15.07%E -4.78%K -7.01%G +0.000%15.2%2026-05-09 23:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 46.55%EV -12.43%E -6.79%K -14.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.05%EV -14.37%E -4.23%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.40%EV -19.11%E -6.37%K -9.56%G +0.000%17.4%2026-05-09 23:34
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.08I 48.08%NM 48.03%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.97%3.70I 27.03%NM 27.00%0.1%2026-05-09 23:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.06I 48.54%NM 48.27%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.86%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.87%0.6%2026-05-09 23:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.06I 48.54%NM 48.27%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.86%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.87%0.6%2026-05-09 23:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.06I 48.54%NM 48.27%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.86%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.87%0.6%2026-05-09 23:55
Smarkets2.06I 48.54%NM 48.09%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.14%0.9%2026-05-09 23:55
Kalshi2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.76%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.76%1.0%2026-05-09 23:34