The School of Odds
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Atletico Paranaense v Vasco da Gama

Kickoff: 2026-11-04 22:30 UTC

Final: Atletico Paranaense 1–3 Vasco da Gama

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

51 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atletico Paranaense (Local)

Prediction 38.83%2.58fair odd
EV -1.38%
Edge -0.545%
Kelly -0.899%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.74%39.13%38.78%42.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.352.382.5447.62%42.63%42.02%39.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vasco da Gama (Visit)

Prediction 33.37%3.00fair odd
EV +5.13%
Edge +1.63%
Kelly +2.38%
Growth +0.122%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.91%33.08%33.39%34.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.842.803.1539.22%35.26%35.71%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.80%3.60fair odd
EV -1.31%
Edge -0.368%
Kelly -0.512%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.95%27.79%27.82%28.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.323.303.5533.33%30.10%30.30%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atletico Paranaense (Local): 38.83%; Vasco da Gama (Visit): 33.37%; Draw: 27.80%. For Vasco da Gama (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.00. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.13%.

Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.53%EV -8.76%E -3.73%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.98%EV +5.13%E +1.63%K +2.38%G +0.122%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.49%EV -1.31%E -0.368%K -0.512%G +0.000%2.5%2026-11-04 22:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.53%EV -8.76%E -3.73%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.98%EV +5.13%E +1.63%K +2.38%G +0.122%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.49%EV -1.31%E -0.368%K -0.512%G +0.000%2.5%2026-11-04 22:20
1xBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -6.82%E -2.84%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.17%EV +2.79%E +0.906%K +1.34%G +0.037%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.83%EV -7.42%E -2.23%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-04 22:25
BetRivers🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.44%EV -16.53%E -7.69%K -14.37%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.91%EV +1.79%E +0.587%K +0.873%G +0.016%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -8.26%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.6%2026-11-04 22:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.29%EV -12.64%E -5.62%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV +0.121%E +0.040%K +0.060%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73%EV -6.87%E -2.05%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-04 22:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.29%EV -12.64%E -5.62%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV +0.121%E +0.040%K +0.060%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73%EV -6.87%E -2.05%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-04 22:20
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.29%EV -12.64%E -5.62%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV +0.121%E +0.040%K +0.060%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73%EV -6.87%E -2.05%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-04 22:20
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.29%EV -12.64%E -5.62%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV +0.121%E +0.040%K +0.060%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73%EV -6.87%E -2.05%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-04 22:20
betPARX🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.29%EV -12.64%E -5.62%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV +0.121%E +0.040%K +0.060%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73%EV -6.87%E -2.05%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-04 22:20
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.12%EV -13.42%E -6.02%K -10.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.09%EV -1.55%E -0.525%K -0.794%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -8.26%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-04 22:20
Pinnacle🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 38.15%EV -1.38%E -0.545%K -0.899%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.18%EV -2.55%E -0.873%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.67%EV -6.03%E -1.78%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.2%2026-11-04 22:25
GTbets🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 38.99%EV -5.27%E -2.16%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.69%EV -2.88%E -0.991%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.32%EV -6.59%E -1.96%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-04 22:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -14.58%E -6.63%K -12.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -3.22%E -1.11%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -9.65%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.7%2026-11-04 22:20
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -14.58%E -6.63%K -12.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -3.22%E -1.11%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -9.65%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.7%2026-11-04 22:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -14.58%E -6.63%K -12.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -3.22%E -1.11%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -9.65%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.7%2026-11-04 22:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.28%EV -15.36%E -7.05%K -13.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.03%EV -3.22%E -1.11%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.69%EV -9.65%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.1%2026-11-04 22:20
LowVig.ag🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.96%EV -3.71%E -1.50%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 33.43%EV -3.55%E -1.23%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.61%EV -2.70%E -0.770%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.5%2026-11-04 22:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.96%EV -3.71%E -1.50%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 33.43%EV -3.55%E -1.23%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.61%EV -2.70%E -0.770%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.5%2026-11-04 22:20
BetUS🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.96%EV -3.71%E -1.50%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 33.43%EV -3.55%E -1.23%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.61%EV -2.70%E -0.770%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.5%2026-11-04 22:19
BetAnything🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.96%EV -3.71%E -1.50%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 33.43%EV -3.55%E -1.23%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.61%EV -2.70%E -0.770%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.5%2026-11-04 22:20
Fanatics🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.76%EV -4.88%E -1.99%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.32%EV -4.89%E -1.71%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -5.48%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-04 22:05
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -4.88%E -1.99%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.18%EV -4.89%E -1.71%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.23%EV -6.87%E -2.05%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-04 22:20
Codere (IT)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 38.24%EV -4.10%E -1.66%K -2.79%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.14%EV -4.89%E -1.71%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.62%EV -8.26%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-04 21:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.01%EV -14.58%E -6.63%K -12.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.65%EV -4.89%E -1.71%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -8.26%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.8%2026-11-04 21:45
PMU (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.22%EV -16.53%E -7.69%K -14.37%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.09%EV -4.89%E -1.71%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.69%EV -11.04%E -3.45%K -5.02%G +0.000%12.8%2026-11-04 22:20
Coolbet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.68%EV -4.88%E -1.99%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.85%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.47%EV -4.09%E -1.18%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-04 21:50
DraftKings🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.89%EV -2.94%E -1.17%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.83%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.28%EV -6.87%E -2.05%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-04 22:15
FanDuel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -4.88%E -1.99%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -8.26%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-04 22:20
Bet Right🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.52%EV -8.76%E -3.73%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -5.48%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-04 22:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.52%EV -8.76%E -3.73%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -5.48%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-04 22:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.52%EV -8.76%E -3.73%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -5.48%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-04 22:00
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -6.82%E -2.84%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -8.26%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-04 22:05
TAB🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -6.82%E -2.84%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -8.26%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-04 22:04
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -14.58%E -6.63%K -12.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -8.26%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000%11.5%2026-11-04 22:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 39.73%EV -9.15%E -3.91%K -6.83%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 33.32%EV -6.89%E -2.47%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -4.09%E -1.18%K -1.67%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-04 22:05
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -4.88%E -1.99%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -8.22%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -8.26%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-04 22:14
Betsson🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.43%EV -6.04%E -2.50%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.82%EV -8.22%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -6.87%E -2.05%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-04 22:05
NordicBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.27%EV -6.04%E -2.50%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -8.22%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -8.26%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.0%2026-11-04 22:05
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -10.70%E -4.65%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -8.22%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -8.26%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-04 22:15
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -4.88%E -1.99%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -8.26%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-04 22:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.88%EV -8.76%E -3.73%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.84%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.28%EV -6.87%E -2.05%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-04 21:45
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -6.82%E -2.84%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.83%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -9.65%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-04 22:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -6.82%E -2.84%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.83%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -9.65%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-04 22:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -6.82%E -2.84%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.83%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -9.65%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-04 22:15
William Hill🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -6.82%E -2.84%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.83%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -9.65%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-04 22:14
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.09%EV -7.60%E -3.19%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.58%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -11.04%E -3.45%K -5.02%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-04 22:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.09%EV -7.60%E -3.19%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.58%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -11.04%E -3.45%K -5.02%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-04 22:20
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -7.60%E -3.19%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.27%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -13.82%E -4.46%K -6.58%G +0.000%11.3%2026-11-04 22:17
Betclic (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.02%EV -13.42%E -6.02%K -10.91%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.09%EV -12.23%E -4.65%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 27.89%EV -13.26%E -4.25%K -6.25%G +0.000%14.9%2026-11-04 22:03
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.68%EV -12.64%E -5.62%K -10.11%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.13%EV -14.90%E -5.84%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.20%EV -11.04%E -3.45%K -5.02%G +0.000%14.9%2026-11-04 21:45
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 39.63%EV -18.47%E -8.79%K -16.79%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 32.63%EV -14.90%E -5.84%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.74%EV -16.60%E -5.53%K -8.30%G +0.000%20.2%2026-11-04 21:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.32%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.21%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.47%0.4%2026-11-04 22:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.32%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.21%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.47%0.4%2026-11-04 22:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.36%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40%0.6%2026-11-04 22:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.36%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40%0.6%2026-11-04 22:20
Kalshi◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.68%2.99I 33.44%NM 33.11%3.51I 28.49%NM 28.21%1.0%2026-11-04 22:20
Smarkets◎2.58I 38.76%NM 38.35%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.98%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%1.1%2026-11-04 22:25

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