Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atletico Paranaense v Coritiba

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 19:02 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atletico Paranaense (Local)

Prediction 48.56%2.06fair odd
EV -1.91%
Edge -0.943%
Kelly -1.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.15%48.53%48.83%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.911.932.0258.48%52.28%51.81%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Coritiba (Visit)

Prediction 22.06%4.53fair odd
EV +4.77%
Edge +1.00%
Kelly +1.27%
Growth +0.061%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.92%22.13%21.89%24.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.184.204.7526.67%23.94%23.81%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.38%3.40fair odd
EV -3.04%
Edge -0.921%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.84%29.34%29.29%30.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.133.133.3036.36%31.99%31.95%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atletico Paranaense (Local): 48.56%; Coritiba (Visit): 22.06%; Draw: 29.38%. For Coritiba (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.53. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.77%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.16%EV -5.79%E -2.98%K -6.16%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.08%EV +4.77%E +1.00%K +1.27%G +0.061%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.76%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-22 19:00
BetUS🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.55%EV -7.25%E -3.79%K -7.96%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.92%EV +4.77%E +1.00%K +1.27%G +0.061%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-22 18:59
1xBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 48.00%EV -1.91%E -0.943%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.59I 21.79%NM 21.12%EV +1.24%E +0.270%K +0.345%G +0.004%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.88%EV -7.74%E -2.46%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-22 18:59
Pinnacle🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 48.56%EV -3.36%E -1.69%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.24%EV +0.356%E +0.078%K +0.100%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.20%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-22 18:59
Coolbet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.11%EV -3.85%E -1.94%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.17%EV -0.747%E -0.166%K -0.214%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.73%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-22 18:58
LowVig.ag🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.50%EV -4.82%E -2.46%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.13%EV -0.747%E -0.166%K -0.214%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.37%EV -8.03%E -2.57%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-22 18:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.50%EV -4.82%E -2.46%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.13%EV -0.747%E -0.166%K -0.214%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.37%EV -8.03%E -2.57%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-22 19:00
BetAnything🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.72%EV -5.30%E -2.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.11%EV -0.747%E -0.166%K -0.214%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -7.45%E -2.36%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-22 18:59
Codere (IT)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.58%EV -9.68%E -5.20%K -11.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -0.747%E -0.166%K -0.214%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.51%EV -3.04%E -0.921%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-22 19:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.72%EV -10.16%E -5.49%K -11.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -0.747%E -0.166%K -0.214%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -3.04%E -0.921%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 18:59
Svenska Spel🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.91%EV -4.33%E -2.20%K -4.47%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.90%EV -2.95%E -0.671%K -0.868%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.20%EV -3.04%E -0.921%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-22 19:00
FanDuel🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.26%EV -5.30%E -2.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.39%EV -2.95%E -0.671%K -0.868%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.36%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-22 18:59
SportsBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.09%EV -5.30%E -2.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.66%EV -4.50%E -1.04%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 19:00
Everygame🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.09%EV -5.30%E -2.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.66%EV -4.50%E -1.04%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 18:59
Fanatics🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.91%EV -5.30%E -2.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.18%EV -5.16%E -1.20%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.90%EV -3.04%E -0.921%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-22 18:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.15%EV -5.79%E -2.98%K -6.16%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -5.16%E -1.20%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-22 18:59
Tipico (DE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.07%EV -9.19%E -4.91%K -10.56%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.34%EV -5.16%E -1.20%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-22 18:59
GTbets🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.22%EV -6.28%E -3.25%K -6.75%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 21.85%EV -6.04%E -1.42%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 29.93%EV -8.62%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-22 18:59
Unibet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.61%EV -6.28%E -3.25%K -6.75%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.07%EV -6.26%E -1.47%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 19:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.61%EV -6.28%E -3.25%K -6.75%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.07%EV -6.26%E -1.47%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 19:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.61%EV -6.28%E -3.25%K -6.75%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.07%EV -6.26%E -1.47%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 18:59
Grosvenor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.61%EV -6.28%E -3.25%K -6.75%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.07%EV -6.26%E -1.47%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 19:00
Casumo🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.61%EV -6.28%E -3.25%K -6.75%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.07%EV -6.26%E -1.47%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 19:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.69%EV -14.53%E -8.26%K -19.12%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.99%EV -6.26%E -1.47%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.32%EV -7.45%E -2.36%K -3.46%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-22 18:59
LiveScore Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.19%EV -4.33%E -2.20%K -4.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%EV -7.36%E -1.75%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.21%EV -4.51%E -1.39%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-22 19:00
BetRivers🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -7.25%E -3.79%K -7.96%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -7.36%E -1.75%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-22 18:52
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -7.25%E -3.79%K -7.96%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -7.36%E -1.75%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.44%EV -11.85%E -3.95%K -5.93%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-22 19:00
Paddy Power🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.95%EV -7.73%E -4.07%K -8.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.69%EV -7.36%E -1.75%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.37%EV -11.85%E -3.95%K -5.93%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-22 19:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.00%EV -16.47%E -9.58%K -22.88%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.89%EV -7.36%E -1.75%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.12%EV -8.33%E -2.67%K -3.93%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-22 18:59
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 51.28%EV -16.96%E -9.92%K -23.89%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.88%EV -7.36%E -1.75%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.84%EV -7.45%E -2.36%K -3.46%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-22 18:59
Fliff🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.00%EV -11.13%E -6.08%K -13.41%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.61%EV -8.47%E -2.04%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.40%EV -10.38%E -3.40%K -5.07%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-22 19:00
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.18%EV -5.30%E -2.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.91%EV -9.57%E -2.33%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.91%EV -4.51%E -1.39%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-22 18:59
betPARX🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.09%EV -5.79%E -2.98%K -6.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -9.57%E -2.33%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.15%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-22 19:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.09%EV -5.79%E -2.98%K -6.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -9.57%E -2.33%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.15%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-22 19:00
TABtouch🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.56%EV -9.19%E -4.91%K -10.56%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -9.57%E -2.33%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-22 19:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.60%EV -10.16%E -5.49%K -11.95%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.93%EV -9.57%E -2.33%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.48%EV -10.38%E -3.40%K -5.07%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-22 19:00
PlayUp🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15%EV -2.88%E -1.44%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -11.78%E -2.94%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -11.85%E -3.95%K -5.93%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-22 18:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.55%EV -7.73%E -4.07%K -8.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -11.78%E -2.94%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.38%EV -4.51%E -1.39%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-22 19:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -5.30%E -2.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -11.78%E -2.94%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -11.85%E -3.95%K -5.93%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-22 18:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -5.30%E -2.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -11.78%E -2.94%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -11.85%E -3.95%K -5.93%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-22 18:59
LeoVegas🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.03%EV -8.22%E -4.35%K -9.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.69%EV -11.78%E -2.94%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-22 19:00
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.92%EV -2.88%E -1.44%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%EV -12.88%E -3.26%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 19:00
NordicBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.95%EV -3.85%E -1.94%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -12.88%E -3.26%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.51%EV -7.45%E -2.36%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-22 18:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.02%EV -8.70%E -4.63%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.86%EV -12.88%E -3.26%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.12%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-22 19:00
Bet Right🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.15%EV -4.33%E -2.20%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.82%EV -13.98%E -3.58%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-22 18:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.41%EV -5.30%E -2.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -13.98%E -3.58%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-22 18:59
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.51%EV -5.30%E -2.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -13.98%E -3.58%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -11.85%E -3.95%K -5.93%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-22 19:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.10%EV -8.70%E -4.63%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.19%EV -13.98%E -3.58%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.71%EV -7.45%E -2.36%K -3.46%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-22 19:00
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.72%EV -10.16%E -5.49%K -11.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.11%EV -13.98%E -3.58%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.17%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-22 19:00
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.03%EV -7.25%E -3.79%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -13.98%E -3.58%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.94%EV -11.85%E -3.95%K -5.93%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-22 19:00
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -2.88%E -1.44%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -16.19%E -4.26%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-22 19:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 47.83%EV -15.50%E -8.91%K -20.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 21.90%EV -16.19%E -4.26%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 30.27%EV -19.20%E -6.98%K -10.97%G +0.000%20.2%2026-03-22 19:00
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.60%EV -7.25%E -3.79%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -17.29%E -4.61%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.67%EV -11.85%E -3.95%K -5.93%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-22 19:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 48.03%EV -11.62%E -6.38%K -14.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.31%EV -17.29%E -4.61%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.66%EV -10.38%E -3.40%K -5.07%G +0.000%14.4%2026-03-22 19:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 46.69%EV -11.13%E -6.08%K -13.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.79%EV -17.29%E -4.61%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.52%EV -17.73%E -6.33%K -9.85%G +0.000%17.0%2026-03-22 19:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.06I 48.54%NM 48.48%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.25%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.27%0.1%2026-03-22 19:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.06I 48.54%NM 48.26%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.15%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.59%0.6%2026-03-22 19:00
Smarkets2.04I 49.02%NM 48.28%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.41%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.31%1.5%2026-03-22 19:00
Matchbook2.04I 49.02%NM 48.28%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.41%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.31%1.5%2026-03-22 19:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.98I 50.51%NM 48.32%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.25%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.44%4.5%2026-03-22 19:00