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Atletico Mineiro v Chapecoense

2026-09-19 19:00 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atletico Mineiro (Local)

Prediction 66.64%1.50fair odd
EV -4.71%
Edge -3.29%
Kelly -10.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.36%66.47%66.89%67.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.311.371.381.4376.34%72.78%72.20%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chapecoense (Visit)

Prediction 12.08%8.28fair odd
EV -3.34%
Edge -0.418%
Kelly -0.478%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.60%12.14%12.03%13.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.257.317.508.0016.00%13.69%13.33%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.28%4.70fair odd
EV -2.11%
Edge -0.458%
Kelly -0.586%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.47%21.39%21.08%22.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.244.184.6025.64%23.61%23.95%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Atletico Mineiro (Local): 66.64%; Chapecoense (Visit): 12.08%; Draw: 21.28%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.70. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.60, with an expected value of -2.11%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.07%EV -4.71%E -3.29%K -10.95%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV -3.34%E -0.418%K -0.478%G +0.000%4.58I 21.83%NM 20.94%EV -2.53%E -0.553%K -0.708%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-07 19:45
Coolbet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -5.38%E -3.79%K -12.80%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -3.34%E -0.418%K -0.478%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.13%EV -4.24%E -0.942%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-07 18:40
Fanatics🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.77%EV -6.71%E -4.79%K -16.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -9.38%E -1.25%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -4.24%E -0.942%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-07 18:58
Betsson🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.93%EV -6.71%E -4.79%K -16.77%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.83%EV -5.76%E -0.738%K -0.847%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.24%EV -11.69%E -2.82%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-07 18:59
NordicBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.93%EV -6.71%E -4.79%K -16.77%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.83%EV -5.76%E -0.738%K -0.847%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.24%EV -11.69%E -2.82%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-07 19:00
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.52%EV -6.71%E -4.79%K -16.77%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.90%EV -15.43%E -2.20%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -14.88%E -3.72%K -4.96%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-07 19:10
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.52%EV -6.71%E -4.79%K -16.77%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.90%EV -15.43%E -2.20%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -14.88%E -3.72%K -4.96%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-07 19:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.52%EV -6.71%E -4.79%K -16.77%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.90%EV -15.43%E -2.20%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -14.88%E -3.72%K -4.96%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-07 19:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.52%EV -6.71%E -4.79%K -16.77%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.90%EV -15.43%E -2.20%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -14.88%E -3.72%K -4.96%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-07 19:10
SportsBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.75%EV -7.37%E -5.31%K -18.91%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -3.34%E -0.418%K -0.478%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -2.11%E -0.458%K -0.586%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-07 18:39
MyBookie.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%EV -8.04%E -5.83%K -21.16%G +0.000%7.70I 12.99%NM 12.01%EV -6.97%E -0.905%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV -6.37%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-07 18:40
Codere (IT)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.88%EV -8.04%E -5.83%K -21.16%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.14%EV -8.18%E -1.08%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.98%EV -6.37%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-07 18:44
LeoVegas🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.77%EV -8.04%E -5.83%K -21.16%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -9.38%E -1.25%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -6.37%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-07 18:40
FanDuel🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.76%EV -8.71%E -6.36%K -23.53%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -3.34%E -0.418%K -0.478%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -4.24%E -0.942%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-07 18:40
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.36%EV -11.37%E -8.55%K -34.46%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.95%EV -9.38%E -1.25%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.69%EV -7.85%E -1.81%K -2.36%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-07 18:39
Winamax (DE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 65.73%EV -11.37%E -8.55%K -34.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.45%EV -21.47%E -3.30%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.82%EV -10.62%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-07 18:40
Sky Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 64.36%EV -11.37%E -8.55%K -34.46%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 13.70%EV -24.49%E -3.92%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.95%EV -17.01%E -4.36%K -5.86%G +0.000%16.8%2026-09-07 18:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 65.23%EV -12.04%E -9.12%K -37.62%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 13.78%EV -24.49%E -3.92%K -4.66%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.00%EV -12.75%E -3.11%K -4.11%G +0.000%16.1%2026-09-07 18:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 65.90%EV -12.71%E -9.70%K -40.98%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 12.51%EV -16.63%E -2.41%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.58%EV -14.88%E -3.72%K -4.96%G +0.000%15.8%2026-09-07 18:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 65.78%EV -12.71%E -9.70%K -40.98%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 12.67%EV -17.84%E -2.62%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.54%EV -14.88%E -3.72%K -4.96%G +0.000%16.0%2026-09-07 18:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.41I 70.92%NM 60.14%7.14I 14.01%NM 11.88%3.03I 33.00%NM 27.99%17.9%2026-09-08 01:40