The School of Odds

Atletico Mineiro v Bragantino-SP

2026-07-30 18:00 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Atletico Mineiro (Local)

Prediction 43.71%2.29fair odd
EV -4.27%
Edge -1.95%
Kelly -3.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.23%43.77%43.74%44.41%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.962.082.122.1951.02%47.99%47.17%45.66%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Bragantino-SP (Visit)

Prediction 27.82%3.59fair odd
EV -4.59%
Edge -1.34%
Kelly -1.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.52%27.87%27.76%28.80%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.953.263.303.4333.90%30.72%30.30%29.15%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 28.47%3.51fair odd
EV -4.34%
Edge -1.29%
Kelly -1.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.53%28.35%28.50%28.70%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.053.233.253.3632.79%30.96%30.77%29.76%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle2.19I 45.66%NM 43.51%EV -4.27%E -1.95%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.78%EV -4.59%E -1.34%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.70%EV -5.48%E -1.65%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-26 23:45
GTbets2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.02%E -2.80%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.07%EV -6.53%E -1.94%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.07%EV -4.34%E -1.29%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-26 22:45
Unibet (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -6.02%E -2.80%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.42%E -1.59%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -6.05%E -1.83%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-26 22:45
Bet Victor2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -6.02%E -2.80%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -8.20%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -7.47%E -2.30%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-26 22:44
betano_uk2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -6.02%E -2.80%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -8.20%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -7.47%E -2.30%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-26 22:49
LeoVegas2.12I 47.17%NM 44.13%EV -7.33%E -3.46%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -5.42%E -1.59%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -6.05%E -1.83%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-26 22:45
BoyleSports2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -10.39%E -5.07%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -9.59%E -2.95%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -6.05%E -1.83%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-26 22:50
Winamax (DE)2.00I 50.00%NM 44.05%EV -12.57%E -6.29%K -12.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.42%EV -13.77%E -4.44%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.53%EV -8.90%E -2.78%K -4.04%G +0.000%13.5%2026-07-26 22:45
Betclic (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 43.94%EV -12.57%E -6.29%K -12.57%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 27.72%EV -11.82%E -3.73%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.35%EV -11.74%E -3.79%K -5.59%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-26 22:48
Unibet (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 43.86%EV -12.57%E -6.29%K -12.57%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.85%EV -12.38%E -3.93%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.30%EV -11.74%E -3.79%K -5.59%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-26 22:46
Winamax (FR)1.96I 51.02%NM 43.35%EV -14.32%E -7.31%K -14.92%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.80%EV -17.94%E -6.08%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 27.85%EV -13.17%E -4.32%K -6.42%G +0.000%17.7%2026-07-26 22:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.