Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Union Saint-Gilloise v Royal Antwerp

Kickoff: 2026-02-21 19:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Union Saint-Gilloise (Local)

Prediction 69.09%1.45fair odd
EV -3.27%
Edge -2.34%
Kelly -8.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.21%69.03%69.04%70.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.341.351.4080.00%74.51%74.07%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Royal Antwerp (Visit)

Prediction 10.96%9.12fair odd
EV +4.15%
Edge +0.437%
Kelly +0.488%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 9.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.80%11.07%11.05%13.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.758.578.509.5014.81%11.67%11.76%10.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.95%5.01fair odd
EV -0.270%
Edge -0.054%
Kelly -0.067%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.71%19.90%19.91%21.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.714.805.0025.00%21.23%20.83%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Union Saint-Gilloise (Local): 69.09%; Royal Antwerp (Visit): 10.96%; Draw: 19.95%. For Royal Antwerp (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.12. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.15%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.51%EV -5.35%E -3.90%K -14.45%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.17%EV +4.15%E +0.437%K +0.488%G +0.020%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.32%EV -0.270%E -0.054%K -0.067%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-21 16:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.51%EV -5.35%E -3.90%K -14.45%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.17%EV +4.15%E +0.437%K +0.488%G +0.020%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.32%EV -0.270%E -0.054%K -0.067%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-21 16:00
BetAnything🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.51%EV -5.35%E -3.90%K -14.45%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.17%EV +4.15%E +0.437%K +0.488%G +0.020%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.32%EV -0.270%E -0.054%K -0.067%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-21 16:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.82%EV -6.73%E -4.98%K -19.22%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.06%EV +4.15%E +0.437%K +0.488%G +0.020%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.12%EV -0.270%E -0.054%K -0.067%G +0.000%4.6%2026-02-21 19:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.82%EV -6.73%E -4.98%K -19.22%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.06%EV +4.15%E +0.437%K +0.488%G +0.020%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.12%EV -0.270%E -0.054%K -0.067%G +0.000%4.6%2026-02-21 19:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.97%EV -7.42%E -5.54%K -21.82%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.01%EV +4.15%E +0.437%K +0.488%G +0.020%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.02%EV -0.270%E -0.054%K -0.067%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-21 19:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.97%EV -7.42%E -5.54%K -21.82%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.01%EV +4.15%E +0.437%K +0.488%G +0.020%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.02%EV -0.270%E -0.054%K -0.067%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-21 19:40
Everygame🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.97%EV -8.11%E -6.10%K -24.57%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV +4.15%E +0.437%K +0.488%G +0.020%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -8.25%E -1.79%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-21 19:35
1xBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 69.26%EV -3.27%E -2.34%K -8.18%G +0.000%9.35I 10.70%NM 10.37%EV +2.50%E +0.268%K +0.300%G +0.008%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.37%EV -5.06%E -1.06%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.1%2026-02-21 19:40
BetUS🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.72%EV -6.73%E -4.98%K -19.22%G +0.000%9.34I 10.71%NM 10.08%EV +2.39%E +0.256%K +0.287%G +0.007%4.66I 21.46%NM 20.20%EV -7.05%E -1.51%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 19:40
Suprabets🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.67%EV -7.42%E -5.54%K -21.82%G +0.000%9.30I 10.75%NM 10.04%EV +1.96%E +0.210%K +0.236%G +0.005%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.29%EV -8.25%E -1.79%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 19:34
Pinnacle🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.72%EV -4.65%E -3.37%K -12.25%G +0.000%9.29I 10.76%NM 10.36%EV +1.85%E +0.199%K +0.223%G +0.004%4.83I 20.70%NM 19.92%EV -3.66%E -0.758%K -0.956%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-21 19:35
Fanatics🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.27%EV -6.04%E -4.44%K -16.77%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.62%EV -1.33%E -0.148%K -0.167%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.11%EV -0.270%E -0.054%K -0.067%G +0.000%4.6%2026-02-21 19:35
Casumo🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.46%EV -8.11%E -6.10%K -24.57%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.41%EV -1.33%E -0.148%K -0.167%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.13%EV -2.26%E -0.462%K -0.581%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-21 19:40
Grosvenor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.46%EV -8.11%E -6.10%K -24.57%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.41%EV -1.33%E -0.148%K -0.167%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.13%EV -2.26%E -0.462%K -0.581%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-21 19:40
LeoVegas🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.46%EV -8.11%E -6.10%K -24.57%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.41%EV -1.33%E -0.148%K -0.167%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.13%EV -2.26%E -0.462%K -0.581%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-21 19:40
betPARX🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.46%EV -8.11%E -6.10%K -24.57%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.41%EV -1.33%E -0.148%K -0.167%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.13%EV -2.26%E -0.462%K -0.581%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-21 19:40
TABtouch🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.89%EV -8.80%E -6.67%K -27.50%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.40%EV -1.33%E -0.148%K -0.167%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -0.270%E -0.054%K -0.067%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-21 19:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.89%EV -8.80%E -6.67%K -27.50%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.40%EV -1.33%E -0.148%K -0.167%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -0.270%E -0.054%K -0.067%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-21 19:30
Unibet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.62%EV -8.80%E -6.67%K -27.50%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -1.33%E -0.148%K -0.167%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -2.26%E -0.462%K -0.581%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-21 18:05
BetRivers🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.62%EV -8.80%E -6.67%K -27.50%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -1.33%E -0.148%K -0.167%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -2.26%E -0.462%K -0.581%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-21 18:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.66%EV -10.18%E -7.83%K -33.94%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.21%EV -1.33%E -0.148%K -0.167%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.14%EV -4.26%E -0.887%K -1.12%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-21 19:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.69%EV -11.56%E -9.03%K -41.30%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.05%EV -1.33%E -0.148%K -0.167%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.25%EV -6.25%E -1.33%K -1.69%G +0.000%10.5%2026-02-21 19:40
Coolbet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.45%EV -5.35%E -3.90%K -14.45%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.72%EV -4.07%E -0.466%K -0.526%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -10.24%E -2.28%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-21 12:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.76%EV -6.73%E -4.98%K -19.22%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.61%EV -4.07%E -0.466%K -0.526%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -10.24%E -2.28%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-21 12:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.63%EV -7.42%E -5.54%K -21.82%G +0.000%8.70I 11.49%NM 10.72%EV -4.62%E -0.531%K -0.600%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.64%EV -5.26%E -1.11%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-21 19:35
DraftKings🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.13%EV -5.35%E -3.90%K -14.45%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.14%EV -6.81%E -0.802%K -0.909%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -4.26%E -0.887%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-21 13:50
Betsson🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.44%EV -6.73%E -4.98%K -19.22%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.03%EV -6.81%E -0.802%K -0.909%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -4.26%E -0.887%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-21 15:30
NordicBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.44%EV -6.73%E -4.98%K -19.22%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.03%EV -6.81%E -0.802%K -0.909%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -4.26%E -0.887%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-21 15:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.23%EV -5.35%E -3.90%K -14.45%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -6.81%E -0.802%K -0.909%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -10.24%E -2.28%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-21 12:50
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.70%EV -6.04%E -4.44%K -16.77%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -6.81%E -0.802%K -0.909%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -8.25%E -1.79%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-21 12:49
theScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.70%EV -6.04%E -4.44%K -16.77%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -6.81%E -0.802%K -0.909%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -8.25%E -1.79%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-21 12:50
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.07%EV -6.04%E -4.44%K -16.77%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV -6.81%E -0.802%K -0.909%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -12.24%E -2.78%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-21 19:30
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.07%EV -6.04%E -4.44%K -16.77%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV -6.81%E -0.802%K -0.909%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -12.24%E -2.78%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-21 19:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.07%EV -6.04%E -4.44%K -16.77%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV -6.81%E -0.802%K -0.909%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -12.24%E -2.78%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-21 19:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.07%EV -6.04%E -4.44%K -16.77%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV -6.81%E -0.802%K -0.909%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -12.24%E -2.78%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-21 19:30
BoyleSports🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.87%EV -8.11%E -6.10%K -24.57%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -6.81%E -0.802%K -0.909%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.35%EV -10.24%E -2.28%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-21 19:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 70.72%EV -12.25%E -9.65%K -45.39%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.57%EV -6.81%E -0.802%K -0.909%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.71%EV -4.26%E -0.887%K -1.12%G +0.000%11.3%2026-02-21 19:40
Bovada🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.77%EV -6.04%E -4.44%K -16.77%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.34%EV -9.56%E -1.16%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.90%EV -6.25%E -1.33%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-21 19:39
Unibet (UK)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -5.35%E -3.90%K -14.45%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.76%EV -12.30%E -1.54%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -4.26%E -0.887%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-21 19:40
Paddy Power🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.06%EV -10.87%E -8.43%K -37.49%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.14%EV -12.30%E -1.54%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.80%EV -10.24%E -2.28%K -2.93%G +0.000%12.2%2026-02-21 19:30
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.92%EV -3.27%E -2.34%K -8.18%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.27%EV -15.04%E -1.94%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.81%EV -4.26%E -0.887%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-21 12:50
PlayUp🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.16%EV -8.11%E -6.10%K -24.57%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.70%EV -15.04%E -1.94%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -10.24%E -2.28%K -2.93%G +0.000%10.3%2026-02-21 19:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 68.19%EV -10.87%E -8.43%K -37.49%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.35%EV -15.04%E -1.94%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.46%EV -14.23%E -3.31%K -4.31%G +0.000%13.7%2026-02-21 13:26
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 68.02%EV -9.49%E -7.24%K -30.62%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 11.72%EV -16.68%E -2.19%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.25%EV -12.24%E -2.78%K -3.60%G +0.000%12.2%2026-02-21 18:25
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.64%EV -3.27%E -2.34%K -8.18%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV -17.78%E -2.37%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -4.26%E -0.887%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-21 12:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.64%EV -3.27%E -2.34%K -8.18%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV -17.78%E -2.37%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -4.26%E -0.887%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-21 12:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 68.07%EV -9.49%E -7.24%K -30.62%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.89%EV -17.78%E -2.37%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.04%EV -11.24%E -2.53%K -3.26%G +0.000%12.1%2026-02-21 19:40
Sky Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.39%EV -10.18%E -7.83%K -33.94%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.85%EV -17.78%E -2.37%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.76%EV -10.24%E -2.28%K -2.93%G +0.000%12.5%2026-02-21 19:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 67.61%EV -13.64%E -10.91%K -54.55%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.27%EV -17.78%E -2.37%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.13%EV -20.22%E -5.05%K -6.74%G +0.000%18.3%2026-02-21 19:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -3.27%E -2.34%K -8.18%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.98%EV -20.52%E -2.83%K -3.28%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -5.26%E -1.11%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-21 12:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.47%EV -8.11%E -6.10%K -24.57%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.56%EV -20.52%E -2.83%K -3.28%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.97%EV -4.26%E -0.887%K -1.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-21 19:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 67.50%EV -10.18%E -7.83%K -33.94%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.00%EV -26.00%E -3.85%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.50%EV -10.24%E -2.28%K -2.93%G +0.000%14.0%2026-02-21 19:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.38I 72.46%NM 71.85%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.44%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.71%0.9%2026-02-21 19:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.39I 71.94%NM 71.11%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.88%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.01%1.2%2026-02-21 19:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.39I 71.94%NM 71.11%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.88%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.01%1.2%2026-02-21 19:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.39I 71.94%NM 71.11%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.88%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.01%1.2%2026-02-21 19:40
Smarkets1.37I 72.99%NM 71.41%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.78%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.81%2.2%2026-02-21 19:35