Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Union Saint-Gilloise v Leuven

2026-10-11 14:00 UTC — Belgium First Div

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Union Saint-Gilloise (Local)

Prediction 72.97%1.37fair odd
EV -5.86%
Edge -4.55%
Kelly -20.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.27%72.97%72.97%75.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.211.241.241.2982.64%80.43%80.65%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Leuven (Visit)

Prediction 10.14%9.87fair odd
EV +11.49%
Edge +1.04%
Kelly +1.15%
Growth +0.132%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.80%10.14%10.14%11.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.759.359.0011.0012.90%10.70%11.11%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.89%5.92fair odd
EV +1.35%
Edge +0.225%
Kelly +0.270%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.14%16.89%16.89%18.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.705.445.406.0021.28%18.39%18.52%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Union Saint-Gilloise (Local): 72.97%; Leuven (Visit): 10.14%; Draw: 16.89%. For Leuven (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.87. 7 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 11.00, producing a positive expected value of +11.49%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 75.06%EV -5.86%E -4.55%K -20.22%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.80%EV +11.49%E +1.04%K +1.15%G +0.132%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.14%EV +1.35%E +0.225%K +0.270%G +0.004%3.3%2026-09-22 09:09
Svenska Spel🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 75.06%EV -5.86%E -4.55%K -20.22%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.80%EV +11.49%E +1.04%K +1.15%G +0.132%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.14%EV +1.35%E +0.225%K +0.270%G +0.004%3.3%2026-09-22 09:09
Grosvenor🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.63%EV -7.32%E -5.77%K -27.13%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.03%EV +6.42%E +0.611%K +0.676%G +0.043%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.34%EV -2.03%E -0.349%K -0.422%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-22 09:09
Unibet (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.34%EV -8.05%E -6.39%K -30.98%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV +1.35%E +0.135%K +0.150%G +0.002%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.29%EV -2.87%E -0.499%K -0.605%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-22 09:09
Unibet (NL)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.34%EV -8.05%E -6.39%K -30.98%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV +1.35%E +0.135%K +0.150%G +0.002%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.29%EV -2.87%E -0.499%K -0.605%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-22 09:09
Casumo🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.34%EV -8.05%E -6.39%K -30.98%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV +1.35%E +0.135%K +0.150%G +0.002%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.29%EV -2.87%E -0.499%K -0.605%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-22 09:10
betPARX🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.34%EV -8.05%E -6.39%K -30.98%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV +1.35%E +0.135%K +0.150%G +0.002%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.29%EV -2.87%E -0.499%K -0.605%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-22 09:09
BetRivers🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.97%EV -8.78%E -7.03%K -35.14%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.14%EV -8.78%E -0.976%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.89%EV -8.78%E -1.63%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-22 09:09
Unibet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.13%EV -9.51%E -7.67%K -39.64%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.08%EV -8.78%E -0.976%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.79%EV -8.78%E -1.63%K -2.00%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-22 09:09
TABtouch🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.13%EV -9.51%E -7.67%K -39.64%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.08%EV -8.78%E -0.976%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.79%EV -8.78%E -1.63%K -2.00%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-22 09:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 73.29%EV -10.24%E -8.33%K -44.54%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.02%EV -8.78%E -0.976%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.69%EV -8.78%E -1.63%K -2.00%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-22 09:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 73.29%EV -10.24%E -8.33%K -44.54%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.02%EV -8.78%E -0.976%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.69%EV -8.78%E -1.63%K -2.00%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-22 09:09
Virgin Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 73.29%EV -10.24%E -8.33%K -44.54%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.02%EV -8.78%E -0.976%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.69%EV -8.78%E -1.63%K -2.00%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-22 09:19
PMU (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 73.38%EV -11.70%E -9.67%K -55.73%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.87%EV -8.78%E -0.976%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.75%EV -10.47%E -1.98%K -2.44%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-22 09:09
Unibet (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 71.44%EV -11.70%E -9.67%K -55.73%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.17%EV -13.85%E -1.63%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.39%EV -20.61%E -4.38%K -5.57%G +0.000%15.7%2026-09-22 09:09
Betclic (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 71.44%EV -11.70%E -9.67%K -55.73%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.17%EV -13.85%E -1.63%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.39%EV -20.61%E -4.38%K -5.57%G +0.000%15.7%2026-09-22 09:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 71.69%EV -10.24%E -8.33%K -44.54%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.02%EV -18.92%E -2.36%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.29%EV -13.85%E -2.72%K -3.38%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-22 09:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 71.27%EV -11.70%E -9.67%K -55.73%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.13%EV -21.45%E -2.77%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.60%EV -17.23%E -3.52%K -4.42%G +0.000%16.0%2026-09-22 09:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.