The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Union Saint-Gilloise v Cercle Brugge KSV

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 18:17 UTC

Final: Union Saint-Gilloise 5–2 Cercle Brugge KSV

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

52 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Union Saint-Gilloise (Local)

Prediction 70.48%1.42fair odd
EV -4.15%
Edge -3.05%
Kelly -11.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.35%70.45%70.44%72.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.301.301.3681.97%76.63%76.92%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cercle Brugge KSV (Visit)

Prediction 11.43%8.75fair odd
EV +14.26%
Edge +1.43%
Kelly +1.58%
Growth +0.226%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.76%11.48%11.48%12.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.758.198.0010.0014.81%12.21%12.50%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.09%5.53fair odd
EV +1.86%
Edge +0.330%
Kelly +0.401%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 5.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.99%18.07%18.08%19.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.455.115.005.6322.47%19.57%20.00%17.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Union Saint-Gilloise (Local): 70.48%; Cercle Brugge KSV (Visit): 11.43%; Draw: 18.09%. For Cercle Brugge KSV (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.75. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.26%.

Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 72.82%EV -5.55%E -4.15%K -16.34%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.76%EV +14.26%E +1.43%K +1.58%G +0.226%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.42%EV +1.32%E +0.235%K +0.286%G +0.004%2.5%2026-10-25 17:49
ATG (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 72.82%EV -5.55%E -4.15%K -16.34%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.76%EV +14.26%E +1.43%K +1.58%G +0.226%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.42%EV +1.32%E +0.235%K +0.286%G +0.004%2.5%2026-10-25 17:49
Pinnacle🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.25%EV -6.26%E -4.71%K -18.97%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.68%EV +2.84%E +0.315%K +0.355%G +0.010%5.63I 17.76%NM 17.07%EV +1.86%E +0.330%K +0.401%G +0.007%4.1%2026-10-25 18:14
Unibet (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.84%EV -8.37%E -6.44%K -27.91%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +2.84%E +0.315%K +0.355%G +0.010%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -5.02%E -0.956%K -1.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-25 17:49
Casumo🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.84%EV -8.37%E -6.44%K -27.91%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +2.84%E +0.315%K +0.355%G +0.010%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -5.02%E -0.956%K -1.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-25 17:49
betPARX🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.84%EV -8.37%E -6.44%K -27.91%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +2.84%E +0.315%K +0.355%G +0.010%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -5.02%E -0.956%K -1.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-25 17:49
betano_uk🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.84%EV -8.37%E -6.44%K -27.91%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +2.84%E +0.315%K +0.355%G +0.010%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -5.02%E -0.956%K -1.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-25 18:09
Bet Victor🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.84%EV -8.37%E -6.44%K -27.91%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +2.84%E +0.315%K +0.355%G +0.010%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -5.02%E -0.956%K -1.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-25 18:15
1xBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -6.26%E -4.71%K -18.97%G +0.000%8.97I 11.15%NM 10.70%EV +2.50%E +0.278%K +0.313%G +0.008%5.61I 17.83%NM 17.11%EV +1.50%E +0.267%K +0.325%G +0.005%4.2%2026-10-25 18:14
BetMGM🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.21%EV -4.85%E -3.59%K -13.86%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.83%EV -0.019%E -0.002%K -0.002%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -9.54%E -1.91%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-25 18:16
Betr (AU)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.31%EV -6.96%E -5.28%K -21.76%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.76%EV -0.019%E -0.002%K -0.002%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.93%EV -5.02%E -0.956%K -1.18%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-25 15:40
Coolbet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 71.06%EV -4.15%E -3.05%K -11.51%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.37%EV -2.88%E -0.338%K -0.383%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.57%EV -0.494%E -0.090%K -0.110%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-25 18:16
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.99%EV -4.85%E -3.59%K -13.86%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.12%EV -2.88%E -0.338%K -0.383%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.90%EV -9.54%E -1.91%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-25 18:16
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.99%EV -4.85%E -3.59%K -13.86%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.12%EV -2.88%E -0.338%K -0.383%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.90%EV -9.54%E -1.91%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-25 18:16
Tipico (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.98%EV -8.37%E -6.44%K -27.91%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.01%EV -2.88%E -0.338%K -0.383%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.01%EV -0.494%E -0.090%K -0.110%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-25 18:15
DraftKings🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -6.26%E -4.71%K -18.97%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -2.88%E -0.338%K -0.383%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -9.54%E -1.91%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-25 18:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -6.26%E -4.71%K -18.97%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -2.88%E -0.338%K -0.383%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -9.54%E -1.91%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-25 15:40
BetRivers🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.93%EV -9.08%E -7.04%K -31.31%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.77%EV -2.88%E -0.338%K -0.383%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -9.54%E -1.91%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-25 17:49
Grosvenor🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.93%EV -9.08%E -7.04%K -31.31%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.77%EV -2.88%E -0.338%K -0.383%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -9.54%E -1.91%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-25 17:49
Unibet (NL)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.93%EV -9.08%E -7.04%K -31.31%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.77%EV -2.88%E -0.338%K -0.383%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -9.54%E -1.91%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-25 17:49
NordicBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.42%EV -6.26%E -4.71%K -18.97%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.56%EV -7.45%E -0.919%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.01%EV -5.92%E -1.14%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-25 17:40
Betsson🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.42%EV -6.26%E -4.71%K -18.97%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.56%EV -7.45%E -0.919%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.01%EV -5.92%E -1.14%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-25 17:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.86%EV -7.67%E -5.85%K -24.74%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.46%EV -7.45%E -0.919%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.68%EV -5.02%E -0.956%K -1.18%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-25 18:15
theScore Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.44%EV -6.26%E -4.71%K -18.97%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -8.59%E -1.07%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -5.02%E -0.956%K -1.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-25 18:15
Fanatics🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.33%EV -7.67%E -5.85%K -24.74%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.68%EV -8.59%E -1.07%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.99%EV -0.494%E -0.090%K -0.110%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-25 17:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.08%EV -6.26%E -4.71%K -18.97%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV -8.59%E -1.07%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.27%EV -7.73%E -1.52%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-25 18:03
BetOnline.ag🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.08%EV -6.26%E -4.71%K -18.97%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV -8.59%E -1.07%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.27%EV -7.73%E -1.52%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-25 18:03
BetAnything🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.08%EV -6.26%E -4.71%K -18.97%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV -8.59%E -1.07%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.27%EV -7.73%E -1.52%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-25 18:03
betfred_uk🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -8.37%E -6.44%K -27.91%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -8.59%E -1.07%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -9.54%E -1.91%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-25 15:12
888sport🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -8.37%E -6.44%K -27.91%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -8.59%E -1.07%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -9.54%E -1.91%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-25 17:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -8.37%E -6.44%K -27.91%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -8.59%E -1.07%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -9.54%E -1.91%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-25 17:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -8.37%E -6.44%K -27.91%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -8.59%E -1.07%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -9.54%E -1.91%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-25 17:49
Unibet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.62%EV -9.78%E -7.64%K -34.94%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.30%EV -8.59%E -1.07%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.08%EV -9.54%E -1.91%K -2.38%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-25 17:49
TABtouch🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.62%EV -9.78%E -7.64%K -34.94%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.30%EV -8.59%E -1.07%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.08%EV -9.54%E -1.91%K -2.38%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-25 17:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 70.78%EV -10.49%E -8.26%K -38.85%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.24%EV -8.59%E -1.07%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -9.54%E -1.91%K -2.38%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-25 17:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 70.78%EV -10.49%E -8.26%K -38.85%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.24%EV -8.59%E -1.07%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -9.54%E -1.91%K -2.38%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-25 17:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 70.78%EV -10.49%E -8.26%K -38.85%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.24%EV -8.59%E -1.07%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -9.54%E -1.91%K -2.38%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-25 17:49
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -11.90%E -9.52%K -47.59%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -8.59%E -1.07%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -9.54%E -1.91%K -2.38%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-25 16:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.85%EV -11.90%E -9.52%K -47.59%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.07%EV -8.59%E -1.07%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.08%EV -11.35%E -2.32%K -2.91%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-25 17:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 71.61%EV -14.01%E -11.49%K -63.69%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.92%EV -8.59%E -1.07%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.47%EV -9.54%E -1.91%K -2.38%G +0.000%14.5%2026-10-25 18:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.74%EV -4.85%E -3.59%K -13.86%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.15%EV -11.45%E -1.48%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -5.92%E -1.14%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-25 17:35
BetUS🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.06%EV -6.26%E -4.71%K -18.97%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.02%EV -11.45%E -1.48%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV -5.92%E -1.14%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-25 18:03
SportsBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 70.77%EV -12.60%E -10.16%K -52.51%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.32%EV -11.45%E -1.48%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.91%EV -11.35%E -2.32%K -2.91%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-25 18:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.58%EV -4.85%E -3.59%K -13.86%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -14.30%E -1.91%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -5.02%E -0.956%K -1.18%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 18:08
BoyleSports🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -8.37%E -6.44%K -27.91%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -14.30%E -1.91%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -9.54%E -1.91%K -2.38%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-25 17:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -8.37%E -6.44%K -27.91%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -14.30%E -1.91%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -9.54%E -1.91%K -2.38%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-25 18:15
NetBet (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 70.17%EV -11.19%E -8.88%K -43.05%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.79%EV -14.30%E -1.91%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.04%EV -11.35%E -2.32%K -2.91%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-25 17:49
Sky Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -11.90%E -9.52%K -47.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.76%EV -14.30%E -1.91%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -9.54%E -1.91%K -2.38%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-25 17:49
PlayUp🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.48%EV -8.37%E -6.44%K -27.91%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.46%EV -17.16%E -2.37%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.06%EV -9.54%E -1.91%K -2.38%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-25 17:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 68.22%EV -7.67%E -5.85%K -24.74%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -20.01%E -2.86%K -3.34%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.01%EV -14.97%E -3.18%K -4.05%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-25 18:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 68.44%EV -9.78%E -7.64%K -34.94%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.51%EV -20.01%E -2.86%K -3.34%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.04%EV -16.78%E -3.65%K -4.66%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-25 18:16
Unibet (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 67.35%EV -8.37%E -6.44%K -27.91%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 12.97%EV -22.87%E -3.39%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 19.68%EV -19.49%E -4.38%K -5.65%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-25 18:16
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.35I 74.07%NM 73.32%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.90%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.78%1.0%2026-10-25 18:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.34I 74.63%NM 73.67%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.87%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45%1.3%2026-10-25 18:16
Matchbook◎1.34I 74.63%NM 73.67%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.87%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45%1.3%2026-10-25 18:16
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.34I 74.63%NM 73.32%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.03%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.65%1.8%2026-10-25 18:15
Kalshi◎1.33I 75.19%NM 73.57%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.79%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.64%2.2%2026-10-25 18:15
Smarkets◎1.32I 75.76%NM 73.61%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.92%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.47%2.9%2026-10-25 18:16

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