The School of Odds
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Royal Antwerp v Waasland-Beveren

Kickoff: 2026-08-09 17:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Royal Antwerp (Local)

Prediction 53.81%1.86fair odd
EV -5.84%
Edge -3.34%
Kelly -7.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.11%53.81%54.27%55.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.671.661.7564.10%59.82%60.24%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Waasland-Beveren (Visit)

Prediction 19.24%5.20fair odd
EV -3.79%
Edge -0.758%
Kelly -0.947%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.82%19.24%19.08%19.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.614.605.0023.26%21.67%21.74%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.95%3.71fair odd
EV -2.97%
Edge -0.825%
Kelly -1.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.59%26.95%26.65%28.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.353.333.6031.25%29.81%30.08%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Royal Antwerp (Local): 53.81%; Waasland-Beveren (Visit): 19.24%; Draw: 26.95%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.71. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.60, with an expected value of -2.97%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -5.84%E -3.34%K -7.79%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.83%EV -11.49%E -2.50%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -12.40%E -3.82%K -5.51%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-14 19:04
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -5.84%E -3.34%K -7.79%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.83%EV -11.49%E -2.50%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -12.40%E -3.82%K -5.51%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-14 20:29
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -5.84%E -3.34%K -7.79%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.83%EV -11.49%E -2.50%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -12.40%E -3.82%K -5.51%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-14 20:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -5.84%E -3.34%K -7.79%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.83%EV -11.49%E -2.50%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -12.40%E -3.82%K -5.51%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-14 20:34
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.04%EV -7.99%E -4.67%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -3.79%E -0.758%K -0.947%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -2.97%E -0.825%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-14 20:40
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.27%EV -10.15%E -6.08%K -15.14%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.08%EV -8.60%E -1.81%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-21 12:50
Paddy Power🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.98%EV -11.22%E -6.80%K -17.26%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.10%EV -8.60%E -1.81%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -5.67%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-14 18:18
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.98%EV -11.22%E -6.80%K -17.26%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.10%EV -8.60%E -1.81%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -5.67%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-14 18:19
SportsBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.69%EV -12.84%E -7.92%K -20.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.26%EV -11.49%E -2.50%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-14 18:15
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 53.40%EV -12.84%E -7.92%K -20.70%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 19.98%EV -16.68%E -3.85%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.62%EV -12.40%E -3.82%K -5.51%G +0.000%15.6%2026-07-14 20:39
Winamax (DE)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 55.07%EV -14.99%E -9.49%K -25.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.34%EV -13.41%E -2.98%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.59%EV -8.36%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%14.9%2026-07-14 20:44
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 54.05%EV -16.06%E -10.30%K -28.69%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 19.61%EV -17.26%E -4.01%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.35%EV -13.75%E -4.30%K -6.25%G +0.000%18.6%2026-07-14 20:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.58I 63.29%NM 53.98%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.95%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.07%17.3%2026-07-14 18:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-07-15 07:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-07-15 07:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-07-15 07:19