Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Royal Antwerp v Charleroi

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 14:00 UTC

Final: Royal Antwerp 0–1 Charleroi

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Royal Antwerp (Local)

Prediction 38.08%2.63fair odd
EV -2.51%
Edge -0.979%
Kelly -1.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.97%38.04%38.10%39.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.282.432.452.5643.86%41.23%40.82%39.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Charleroi (Visit)

Prediction 33.58%2.98fair odd
EV +2.42%
Edge +0.794%
Kelly +1.18%
Growth +0.029%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.83%33.61%33.51%34.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.792.803.0541.67%35.81%35.71%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.34%3.53fair odd
EV -3.66%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.42%28.35%28.39%29.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.253.303.4035.71%30.73%30.30%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Royal Antwerp (Local): 38.08%; Charleroi (Visit): 33.58%; Draw: 28.34%. For Charleroi (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.98. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.42%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.62%EV -6.70%E -2.73%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.83%EV +2.42%E +0.794%K +1.18%G +0.029%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.55%EV -3.66%E -1.08%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-10 02:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.62%EV -6.70%E -2.73%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.83%EV +2.42%E +0.794%K +1.18%G +0.029%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.55%EV -3.66%E -1.08%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-10 02:04
Unibet (NL)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.53%EV -8.60%E -3.58%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.16%EV -0.935%E -0.317%K -0.480%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.32%EV -5.08%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-10 02:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.53%EV -8.60%E -3.58%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.16%EV -0.935%E -0.317%K -0.480%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.32%EV -5.08%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-10 02:04
LeoVegas🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.56%EV -9.36%E -3.93%K -6.78%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.91%EV -0.935%E -0.317%K -0.480%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -6.49%E -1.97%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-10 02:04
Casumo🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.56%EV -9.36%E -3.93%K -6.78%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.91%EV -0.935%E -0.317%K -0.480%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -6.49%E -1.97%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-10 02:04
betPARX🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.56%EV -9.36%E -3.93%K -6.78%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.91%EV -0.935%E -0.317%K -0.480%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -6.49%E -1.97%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-10 02:04
Pinnacle🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 37.81%EV -2.51%E -0.979%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.38%EV -2.61%E -0.902%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.81%EV -4.79%E -1.43%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-10 02:15
BetRivers🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.34%EV -9.36%E -3.93%K -6.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.29%EV -2.61%E -0.902%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.37%EV -6.49%E -1.97%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-10 02:05
Unibet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.64%EV -10.50%E -4.47%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -2.61%E -0.902%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.49%E -1.97%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-10 02:04
TABtouch🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.64%EV -10.50%E -4.47%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -2.61%E -0.902%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.49%E -1.97%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-10 02:04
Grosvenor🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.64%EV -10.50%E -4.47%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -2.61%E -0.902%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.49%E -1.97%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-10 02:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.59%EV -11.27%E -4.83%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.03%EV -3.29%E -1.14%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.38%EV -7.91%E -2.43%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-10 02:04
1xBet🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 37.75%EV -3.65%E -1.44%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.39%EV -3.96%E -1.38%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 28.85%EV -6.21%E -1.88%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-10 02:09
BetUS🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -4.79%E -1.92%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.44%EV -4.29%E -1.51%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.45%EV -5.08%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-09 13:34
Fanatics🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.76%EV -6.70%E -2.73%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.32%EV -4.29%E -1.51%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -3.66%E -1.08%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 11:09
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -6.70%E -2.73%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.18%EV -4.29%E -1.51%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.23%EV -5.08%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-09 14:04
PMU (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.59%EV -12.41%E -5.39%K -9.54%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.95%EV -4.29%E -1.51%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -9.33%E -2.91%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-10 02:04
LowVig.ag🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 36.76%EV -2.51%E -0.979%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.37%EV -5.30%E -1.88%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.87%EV -10.74%E -3.41%K -5.00%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 14:04
BetOnline.ag🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 36.76%EV -2.51%E -0.979%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.37%EV -5.30%E -1.88%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.87%EV -10.74%E -3.41%K -5.00%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 14:04
BetAnything🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 36.76%EV -2.51%E -0.979%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.37%EV -5.30%E -1.88%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.87%EV -10.74%E -3.41%K -5.00%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 14:04
NordicBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.48%EV -4.79%E -1.92%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.23%EV -5.30%E -1.88%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -9.33%E -2.91%K -4.24%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 11:09
Betsson🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.48%EV -4.79%E -1.92%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.23%EV -5.30%E -1.88%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -9.33%E -2.91%K -4.24%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 11:09
Suprabets🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.73%EV -5.55%E -2.24%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.30%EV -5.64%E -2.01%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.97%EV -8.48%E -2.62%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-10 02:08
Everygame🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -4.79%E -1.92%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -5.97%E -2.13%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -7.91%E -2.43%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-10 02:04
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -6.70%E -2.73%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -5.97%E -2.13%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.49%E -1.97%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-09 11:10
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -6.70%E -2.73%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -5.97%E -2.13%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.49%E -1.97%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-10 02:10
Bet Victor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -6.70%E -2.73%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -5.97%E -2.13%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.49%E -1.97%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-10 02:04
Betclic (FR)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.89%EV -9.36%E -3.93%K -6.78%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.06%EV -5.97%E -2.13%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -6.49%E -1.97%K -2.82%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-10 02:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.40%EV -13.17%E -5.78%K -10.29%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.08%EV -5.97%E -2.13%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.52%EV -10.74%E -3.41%K -5.00%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-10 02:04
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.40%EV -13.17%E -5.78%K -10.29%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.08%EV -5.97%E -2.13%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.52%EV -10.74%E -3.41%K -5.00%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-10 02:04
Marathon Bet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 37.76%EV -5.93%E -2.40%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.55%EV -6.64%E -2.39%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -7.91%E -2.43%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-10 03:08
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -4.79%E -1.92%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -7.65%E -2.78%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -3.66%E -1.08%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-09 11:09
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -4.79%E -1.92%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -7.65%E -2.78%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -3.66%E -1.08%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-09 11:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -4.79%E -1.92%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -7.65%E -2.78%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -6.49%E -1.97%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 11:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -4.79%E -1.92%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -7.65%E -2.78%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -6.49%E -1.97%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 11:10
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.60%E -3.58%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -7.65%E -2.78%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -6.49%E -1.97%K -2.82%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-09 11:09
888sport🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.30%EV -6.70%E -2.73%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -7.65%E -2.78%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -12.16%E -3.92%K -5.79%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-09 11:09
William Hill🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.30%EV -6.70%E -2.73%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -7.65%E -2.78%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -12.16%E -3.92%K -5.79%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-09 11:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.30%EV -6.70%E -2.73%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -7.65%E -2.78%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -12.16%E -3.92%K -5.79%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-09 11:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.30%EV -6.70%E -2.73%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -7.65%E -2.78%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -12.16%E -3.92%K -5.79%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-09 11:10
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -12.41%E -5.39%K -9.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -7.65%E -2.78%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -6.49%E -1.97%K -2.82%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-09 14:04
theScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -6.70%E -2.73%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -9.33%E -3.46%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -3.66%E -1.08%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 11:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -6.70%E -2.73%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -9.33%E -3.46%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -3.66%E -1.08%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 11:09
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -4.79%E -1.92%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -9.33%E -3.46%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.49%E -1.97%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 11:10
Coolbet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -4.79%E -1.92%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -9.33%E -3.46%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.49%E -1.97%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 11:09
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.72%EV -10.50%E -4.47%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.70%EV -9.33%E -3.46%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -6.49%E -1.97%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-09 11:10
PlayUp🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.72%EV -8.60%E -3.58%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -9.33%E -3.46%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.74%EV -10.74%E -3.41%K -5.00%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-10 03:09
NetBet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.90%EV -10.50%E -4.47%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 33.36%EV -10.34%E -3.87%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -12.16%E -3.92%K -5.79%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-10 02:09
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.83%EV -12.41%E -5.39%K -9.54%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.70%EV -11.01%E -4.15%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -7.91%E -2.43%K -3.52%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-09 11:09
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.67%EV -8.60%E -3.58%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.51%EV -12.02%E -4.59%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -7.91%E -2.43%K -3.52%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-09 11:09
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.67%EV -8.60%E -3.58%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.51%EV -12.02%E -4.59%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -7.91%E -2.43%K -3.52%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-09 11:10
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.27%EV -9.36%E -3.93%K -6.78%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.12%EV -12.69%E -4.88%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.61%EV -12.16%E -3.92%K -5.79%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-09 11:09
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.82%EV -12.41%E -5.39%K -9.54%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.11%EV -14.37%E -5.63%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.06%EV -12.16%E -3.92%K -5.79%G +0.000%15.0%2026-05-09 11:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 35.97%EV -12.41%E -5.39%K -9.54%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 34.48%EV -19.41%E -8.09%K -13.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 29.55%EV -20.66%E -7.38%K -11.48%G +0.000%20.9%2026-05-09 16:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.63I 38.02%NM 38.39%3.03I 33.00%NM 33.32%3.57I 28.01%NM 28.28%-1.0%2026-05-10 02:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.58I 38.76%NM 38.02%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.14%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.85%2.0%2026-05-10 02:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.58I 38.76%NM 38.02%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.14%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.85%2.0%2026-05-10 02:29
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.58I 38.76%NM 38.02%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.14%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.85%2.0%2026-05-10 02:24
Smarkets2.56I 39.06%NM 38.03%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.34%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.63%2.7%2026-05-10 02:19
Matchbook2.58I 38.76%NM 37.69%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.85%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.46%2.8%2026-05-10 02:44