The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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KV Mechelen v Genk

Kickoff: 2026-10-31 15:00 UTC

Final: KV Mechelen 1–0 Genk

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

KV Mechelen (Local)

Prediction 25.84%3.87fair odd
EV +1.81%
Edge +0.459%
Kelly +0.615%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 3.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.00%25.79%25.83%27.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.593.603.9430.77%27.88%27.78%25.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Genk (Visit)

Prediction 49.33%2.03fair odd
EV -3.82%
Edge -1.96%
Kelly -4.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.16%49.35%49.36%52.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.871.881.9558.82%53.56%53.19%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.83%4.03fair odd
EV -2.65%
Edge -0.675%
Kelly -0.907%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.89%24.86%24.81%26.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.673.753.9229.41%27.23%26.67%25.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: KV Mechelen (Local): 25.84%; Genk (Visit): 49.33%; Draw: 24.83%. For KV Mechelen (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.87. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.94, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.81%.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.94I 25.38%NM 24.63%EV +1.81%E +0.459%K +0.615%G +0.011%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.29%EV -4.80%E -2.49%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 25.08%EV -3.89%E -1.01%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-31 14:50
BetUS🎯3.94I 25.38%NM 24.63%EV +1.81%E +0.459%K +0.615%G +0.011%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.29%EV -4.80%E -2.49%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 25.08%EV -3.89%E -1.01%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-31 14:49
Tipico (DE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV +0.775%E +0.199%K +0.267%G +0.002%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -11.21%E -6.23%K -14.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -3.14%E -0.806%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-31 14:49
1xBet🎯3.81I 26.25%NM 25.21%EV -1.55%E -0.407%K -0.552%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.29%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.50%EV -2.65%E -0.675%K -0.907%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-31 14:50
BetAnything🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -4.39%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.53%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -5.63%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-31 14:50
LowVig.ag🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -4.39%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.50%EV -6.28%E -3.31%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -6.87%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-31 14:25
BetOnline.ag🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -4.39%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.50%EV -6.28%E -3.31%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -6.87%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-31 14:30
betano_uk🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -4.39%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.06%EV -7.76%E -4.15%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.64%EV -5.63%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-31 14:49
Bet Victor🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -4.39%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.06%EV -7.76%E -4.15%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.64%EV -5.63%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-31 14:50
Casumo🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -4.39%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.29%EV -6.77%E -3.58%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -9.35%E -2.56%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-31 14:30
Unibet (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -4.39%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.29%EV -6.77%E -3.58%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -9.35%E -2.56%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-31 14:30
DraftKings🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -5.68%E -1.56%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.36%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.81%EV -5.63%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-31 14:25
Betsson🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.63%EV -5.68%E -1.56%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.76%EV -7.27%E -3.87%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -5.63%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-31 14:50
NordicBet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.63%EV -5.68%E -1.56%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.76%EV -7.27%E -3.87%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -5.63%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-31 14:49
Marathon Bet🎯3.64I 27.47%NM 25.54%EV -5.94%E -1.63%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.19%EV -6.77%E -3.58%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.26%EV -8.61%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-31 14:19
Unibet (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -6.98%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -5.63%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-31 14:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -6.98%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -5.63%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-31 14:50
Coral🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -6.98%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -5.63%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-31 14:49
BetMGM🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -6.98%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -5.63%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-31 14:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -6.98%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.15%EV -6.28%E -3.31%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -6.87%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-31 14:49
Neds🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -6.98%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.15%EV -6.28%E -3.31%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -6.87%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-31 14:50
Fanatics🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -6.98%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -10.59%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-31 14:20
888sport🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -6.98%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -13.08%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-31 14:40
William Hill🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -6.98%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -13.08%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-31 14:39
BetRivers🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -6.98%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.69%EV -7.76%E -4.15%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -13.08%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-31 14:30
Grosvenor🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -6.98%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.69%EV -7.76%E -4.15%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -13.08%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-31 14:30
Unibet (NL)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -6.98%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.69%EV -7.76%E -4.15%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -13.08%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-31 14:30
Paddy Power🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -6.98%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -11.21%E -6.23%K -14.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -10.59%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-31 14:50
Unibet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.49%EV -8.27%E -2.33%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 48.65%EV -8.25%E -4.44%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.86%EV -13.08%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-31 14:30
PlayUp🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.47%EV -8.27%E -2.33%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.41%EV -9.73%E -5.32%K -11.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -10.59%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-31 14:50
TABtouch🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.42%EV -8.27%E -2.33%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.79%EV -8.75%E -4.73%K -10.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -13.08%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-31 14:30
Virgin Bet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.26%EV -8.27%E -2.33%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 48.74%EV -9.24%E -5.02%K -11.00%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.00%EV -14.32%E -4.15%K -5.84%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-31 14:30
LiveScore Bet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.26%EV -8.27%E -2.33%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 48.74%EV -9.24%E -5.02%K -11.00%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.00%EV -14.32%E -4.15%K -5.84%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-31 14:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.20%EV -8.27%E -2.33%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.88%EV -9.73%E -5.32%K -11.73%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.93%EV -14.32%E -4.15%K -5.84%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-31 14:25
Betr (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -9.56%E -2.73%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.61%EV -3.82%E -1.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -3.14%E -0.806%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-31 14:40
Coolbet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.66%EV -9.56%E -2.73%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.11%EV -6.28%E -3.31%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -4.39%E -1.14%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-31 14:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -9.56%E -2.73%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -5.63%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-31 14:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -9.56%E -2.73%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.30%EV -11.21%E -6.23%K -14.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -13.08%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-31 14:49
PMU (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -9.56%E -2.73%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 48.65%EV -10.23%E -5.62%K -12.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -15.56%E -4.58%K -6.48%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-31 14:30
SportsBet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.32%EV -10.85%E -3.15%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 49.36%EV -12.69%E -7.17%K -16.49%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.32%EV -14.32%E -4.15%K -5.84%G +0.000%14.5%2026-10-31 14:50
Winamax (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.86%EV -12.14%E -3.57%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.10%EV -8.25%E -4.44%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -5.63%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-31 14:50
betfred_uk🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -12.14%E -3.57%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.35%EV -9.73%E -5.32%K -11.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.08%EV -6.87%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-31 14:40
Sky Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.11%EV -12.14%E -3.57%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.52%EV -9.73%E -5.32%K -11.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -13.08%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-31 14:40
Betclic (FR)🎯3.37I 29.67%NM 26.02%EV -12.92%E -3.83%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 49.27%EV -12.20%E -6.85%K -15.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.70%EV -11.84%E -3.33%K -4.64%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-31 14:50
Unibet (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 25.55%EV -13.44%E -4.01%K -5.72%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 50.34%EV -16.15%E -9.50%K -23.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.11%EV -11.84%E -3.33%K -4.64%G +0.000%16.8%2026-10-31 14:49
BoyleSports🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.15%EV -14.73%E -4.46%K -6.40%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.96%EV -9.73%E -5.32%K -11.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -6.87%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-31 14:30
Winamax (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 26.82%EV -16.02%E -4.93%K -7.12%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 48.97%EV -12.20%E -6.85%K -15.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.21%EV -10.59%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%14.7%2026-10-31 14:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.0%2026-10-31 14:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.0%2026-10-31 14:50
Smarkets◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.67%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.35%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.98%1.3%2026-10-31 14:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.67%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.35%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.98%1.3%2026-10-31 14:50
Matchbook◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.48%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.92%1.6%2026-10-31 14:50

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