Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Gent v Club Brugge

Inicio: 2026-08-30 11:30 UTC

Final: Gent 2–1 Club Brugge

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Gent (Local)

Predicción 19.22%5.20momio equitativo
EV +1.86%
Ventaja +0.351%
Kelly +0.433%
Crecimiento +0.008%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.94%19.29%19.16%21.58%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.304.844.805.3023.26%20.64%20.83%18.87%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Club Brugge (Visitante)

Predicción 57.12%1.75momio equitativo
EV -2.89%
Ventaja -1.70%
Kelly -4.13%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
55.23%57.01%57.09%58.70%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.561.631.621.7064.10%61.53%61.73%58.82%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 23.66%4.23momio equitativo
EV -0.634%
Ventaja -0.151%
Kelly -0.198%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.31%23.70%23.75%25.09%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.553.843.854.2028.17%26.05%25.97%23.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Gent (Local): 19.22%; Club Brugge (Visitante): 57.12%; Empate: 23.66%. Para Gent (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.20. 6 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.30, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.86%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Grosvenor🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 18.14%EV +1.86%E +0.351%K +0.433%G +0.008%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.22%EV -4.03%E -2.40%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.65%EV -7.73%E -1.98%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-30 11:25
ATG (SE)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 18.14%EV +1.86%E +0.351%K +0.433%G +0.008%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.22%EV -4.03%E -2.40%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.65%EV -7.73%E -1.98%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-30 11:25
Svenska Spel🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 18.14%EV +1.86%E +0.351%K +0.433%G +0.008%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.22%EV -4.03%E -2.40%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.65%EV -7.73%E -1.98%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-30 11:25
Pinnacle🎯5.28I 18.94%NM 18.25%EV +1.48%E +0.280%K +0.345%G +0.005%1.66I 60.24%NM 58.06%EV -5.18%E -3.12%K -7.84%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.68%EV -3.71%E -0.911%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-30 11:20
BetMGM🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.11%EV +0.900%E +0.171%K +0.212%G +0.002%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.70%EV -7.46%E -4.61%K -12.03%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -3.00%E -0.732%K -0.968%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 11:25
Coral🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV +0.900%E +0.171%K +0.212%G +0.002%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.51%EV -8.03%E -4.99%K -13.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -5.37%E -1.34%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-30 11:25
Tipico (DE)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -0.061%E -0.012%K -0.015%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.56%EV -8.60%E -5.38%K -14.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.37%E -1.34%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 11:25
Suprabets🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.35%EV -1.98%E -0.389%K -0.484%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.77%EV -7.46%E -4.61%K -12.03%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.88%EV -7.26%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-30 11:12
Unibet (NL)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -1.98%E -0.389%K -0.484%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.85%EV -6.32%E -3.85%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -11.28%E -3.01%K -4.10%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 11:25
Unibet (SE)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -1.98%E -0.389%K -0.484%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.85%EV -6.32%E -3.85%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -11.28%E -3.01%K -4.10%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 11:25
Casumo🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -1.98%E -0.389%K -0.484%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.85%EV -6.32%E -3.85%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -11.28%E -3.01%K -4.10%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 11:25
betPARX🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -1.98%E -0.389%K -0.484%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.85%EV -6.32%E -3.85%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -11.28%E -3.01%K -4.10%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 11:25
1xBet🎯5.06I 19.76%NM 19.14%EV -2.75%E -0.544%K -0.678%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.96%EV -2.89%E -1.70%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.91%EV -4.18%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-30 11:20
DraftKings🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -3.91%E -0.781%K -0.976%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.39%EV -5.75%E -3.48%K -8.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.67%EV -5.37%E -1.34%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-30 11:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -3.91%E -0.781%K -0.976%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.84%EV -7.46%E -4.61%K -12.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.37%E -1.34%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 11:25
Unibet (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -3.91%E -0.781%K -0.976%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.84%EV -7.46%E -4.61%K -12.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.37%E -1.34%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 11:25
Fanatics🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -3.91%E -0.781%K -0.976%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.84%EV -7.46%E -4.61%K -12.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.37%E -1.34%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 11:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -3.91%E -0.781%K -0.976%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.99%EV -8.03%E -4.99%K -13.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -5.37%E -1.34%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 11:25
Bet Victor🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -3.91%E -0.781%K -0.976%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.99%EV -8.03%E -4.99%K -13.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -5.37%E -1.34%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 11:13
betano_uk🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -3.91%E -0.781%K -0.976%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -8.60%E -5.38%K -14.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -5.37%E -1.34%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-30 11:23
Betr (AU)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV -5.83%E -1.19%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.57%EV -8.60%E -5.38%K -14.34%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -0.634%E -0.151%K -0.198%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 11:15
NordicBet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV -5.83%E -1.19%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.65%EV -5.75%E -3.48%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.28%EV -8.91%E -2.32%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 11:25
Betsson🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV -5.83%E -1.19%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.65%EV -5.75%E -3.48%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.28%EV -8.91%E -2.32%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 11:25
Marathon Bet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.05%EV -5.83%E -1.19%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.62%EV -7.46%E -4.61%K -12.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -5.37%E -1.34%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 11:25
PlayUp🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 18.66%EV -6.79%E -1.40%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.55%EV -8.60%E -5.38%K -14.34%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.79%EV -13.65%E -3.74%K -5.15%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-30 11:25
888sport🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.21%EV -7.75%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.88%EV -5.75%E -3.48%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.92%EV -12.46%E -3.37%K -4.62%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-30 11:10
888sport (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.21%EV -7.75%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.88%EV -5.75%E -3.48%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.92%EV -12.46%E -3.37%K -4.62%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-30 11:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.21%EV -7.75%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.88%EV -5.75%E -3.48%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.92%EV -12.46%E -3.37%K -4.62%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-30 11:10
William Hill🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.21%EV -7.75%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.88%EV -5.75%E -3.48%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.92%EV -12.46%E -3.37%K -4.62%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-30 11:10
BetRivers🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.01%EV -7.75%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 55.99%EV -6.89%E -4.23%K -10.94%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.00%EV -13.65%E -3.74%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-30 11:00
PMU (FR)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.82%EV -7.75%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.10%EV -8.03%E -4.99%K -13.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.09%EV -14.83%E -4.12%K -5.70%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-30 11:25
TABtouch🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.82%EV -7.75%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.10%EV -8.03%E -4.99%K -13.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.09%EV -14.83%E -4.12%K -5.70%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-30 11:25
Unibet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.82%EV -7.75%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.10%EV -8.03%E -4.99%K -13.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.09%EV -14.83%E -4.12%K -5.70%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-30 11:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.75%EV -7.75%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.25%EV -8.60%E -5.38%K -14.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -14.83%E -4.12%K -5.70%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-30 11:25
Coolbet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -8.71%E -1.83%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.82%EV -5.75%E -3.48%K -8.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -5.37%E -1.34%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 11:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.62%EV -8.71%E -1.83%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.48%EV -5.75%E -3.48%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -7.73%E -1.98%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 11:15
BetUS🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.16%EV -8.71%E -1.83%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.89%EV -8.60%E -5.38%K -14.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -10.10%E -2.66%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-30 11:15
Paddy Power🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.84%EV -8.71%E -1.83%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.98%EV -10.32%E -6.57%K -18.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.18%EV -12.46%E -3.37%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-30 11:15
LiveScore Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.71%EV -8.71%E -1.83%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 56.25%EV -9.75%E -6.17%K -16.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.04%EV -16.01%E -4.51%K -6.28%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-30 11:25
Virgin Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.71%EV -8.71%E -1.83%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 56.25%EV -9.75%E -6.17%K -16.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.04%EV -16.01%E -4.51%K -6.28%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-30 11:25
Betclic (FR)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.37%EV -9.67%E -2.06%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.55%EV -8.03%E -4.99%K -13.17%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.08%EV -10.57%E -2.80%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-30 11:15
betfred_uk🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.08%EV -11.59%E -2.52%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.30%EV -4.61%E -2.76%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -11.28%E -3.01%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-30 11:15
NetBet (FR)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.46%EV -11.59%E -2.52%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 56.66%EV -9.75%E -6.17%K -16.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.87%EV -11.28%E -3.01%K -4.10%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-30 11:15
Sky Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -11.59%E -2.52%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.80%EV -8.60%E -5.38%K -14.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -14.83%E -4.12%K -5.70%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-30 11:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.33%EV -11.59%E -2.52%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.64%EV -10.32%E -6.57%K -18.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.03%EV -12.46%E -3.37%K -4.62%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-30 11:15
SportsBet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.13%EV -11.59%E -2.52%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 56.42%EV -10.89%E -6.98%K -19.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.45%EV -14.83%E -4.12%K -5.70%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-30 11:15
theScore Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -13.51%E -3.00%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.87%EV -5.75%E -3.48%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -7.73%E -1.98%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-30 11:15
BoyleSports🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.15%EV -13.51%E -3.00%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.98%EV -7.46%E -4.61%K -12.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.87%EV -10.10%E -2.66%K -3.61%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-30 11:14
Winamax (DE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.11%EV -13.51%E -3.00%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 57.27%EV -9.75%E -6.17%K -16.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.62%EV -5.37%E -1.34%K -1.79%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-30 11:25
Unibet (FR)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.68%EV -13.51%E -3.00%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.39%EV -10.32%E -6.57%K -18.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.93%EV -12.46%E -3.37%K -4.62%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-30 11:15
Winamax (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.27%EV -15.44%E -3.51%K -4.54%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 57.16%EV -10.89%E -6.98%K -19.44%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.57%EV -6.55%E -1.66%K -2.22%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-30 11:25
LowVig.ag🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV -17.36%E -4.04%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.23%EV -4.03%E -2.40%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -5.37%E -1.34%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-29 08:35
BetOnline.ag🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV -17.36%E -4.04%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.23%EV -4.03%E -2.40%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -5.37%E -1.34%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-29 08:34
BetAnything🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV -17.36%E -4.04%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.23%EV -4.03%E -2.40%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -5.37%E -1.34%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-29 08:34
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.60I 17.86%NM 17.73%1.71I 58.48%NM 58.06%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21%0.7%2026-08-30 11:25
Matchbook◎5.60I 17.86%NM 17.73%1.71I 58.48%NM 58.06%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21%0.7%2026-08-30 11:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.40I 18.52%NM 18.33%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.54%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.14%1.0%2026-08-30 11:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.40I 18.52%NM 18.33%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.54%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.14%1.0%2026-08-30 11:25
Kalshi◎5.56I 17.99%NM 17.78%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.51%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.71%1.1%2026-08-30 11:10
Smarkets◎5.30I 18.87%NM 18.25%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.57%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.18%3.4%2026-08-30 11:25