The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Anderlecht v Leuven

2026-11-22 17:30 UTC — Belgium First Div

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Anderlecht (Local)

Prediction 66.25%1.51fair odd
EV -2.61%
Edge -1.77%
Kelly -5.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.81%66.19%65.96%66.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.391.401.4777.52%71.81%71.17%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Leuven (Visit)

Prediction 14.33%6.98fair odd
EV -3.28%
Edge -0.486%
Kelly -0.570%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.93%14.35%14.35%15.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.406.256.486.7518.52%16.01%15.42%14.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.42%5.15fair odd
EV -2.91%
Edge -0.583%
Kelly -0.728%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.72%19.46%19.69%20.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.594.705.0025.00%21.77%21.28%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Anderlecht (Local): 66.25%; Leuven (Visit): 14.33%; Draw: 19.42%. For Anderlecht (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.51. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.47, with an expected value of -2.61%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.99%EV -2.61%E -1.77%K -5.55%G +0.000%6.47I 15.46%NM 14.77%EV -7.29%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.72I 21.19%NM 20.24%EV -8.35%E -1.77%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-09 16:40
Pinnacle🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.99%EV -4.59%E -3.19%K -10.44%G +0.000%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.25%EV -4.43%E -0.664%K -0.781%G +0.000%4.81I 20.79%NM 19.76%EV -6.60%E -1.37%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-09 16:39
Marathon Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.03%EV -5.26%E -3.68%K -12.23%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.76%EV -9.73%E -1.54%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -10.68%E -2.32%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-09 16:34
Betr (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.39%EV -5.92%E -4.17%K -14.09%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.97%EV -3.28%E -0.486%K -0.570%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.64%EV -6.80%E -1.42%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.1%2026-11-09 16:35
NordicBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.21%EV -6.58%E -4.67%K -16.05%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.93%EV -4.00%E -0.596%K -0.701%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -8.74%E -1.86%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-09 13:25
Betsson🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.21%EV -6.58%E -4.67%K -16.05%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.93%EV -4.00%E -0.596%K -0.701%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -8.74%E -1.86%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-09 13:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -7.24%E -5.17%K -18.11%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -6.86%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -2.91%E -0.583%K -0.728%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-09 16:35
Fanatics🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -7.24%E -5.17%K -18.11%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -6.86%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -2.91%E -0.583%K -0.728%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-09 13:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.61%EV -9.89%E -7.28%K -27.49%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.42%EV -18.32%E -3.21%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.97%EV -14.56%E -3.31%K -4.28%G +0.000%13.8%2026-11-09 12:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 64.43%EV -11.22%E -8.37%K -33.00%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.01%EV -17.61%E -3.06%K -3.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.56%EV -18.45%E -4.39%K -5.76%G +0.000%15.8%2026-11-09 12:28
Winamax (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 63.81%EV -11.22%E -8.37%K -33.00%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 15.83%EV -22.62%E -4.19%K -5.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.36%EV -18.45%E -4.39%K -5.76%G +0.000%17.0%2026-11-09 12:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 64.22%EV -14.53%E -11.27%K -50.11%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.06%EV -21.19%E -3.85%K -4.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 20.71%EV -22.33%E -5.58%K -7.44%G +0.000%20.7%2026-11-09 12:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.34I 74.63%NM 64.02%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.05%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.92%16.6%2026-11-09 12:35

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