The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Wolfsberger AC v Sturm Graz

Kickoff: 2026-11-01 13:30 UTC

Final: Wolfsberger AC 1–1 Sturm Graz

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

50 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Wolfsberger AC (Local)

Prediction 19.96%5.01fair odd
EV +0.387%
Edge +0.077%
Kelly +0.096%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.71%20.01%19.94%21.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.494.505.0324.39%22.25%22.22%19.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sturm Graz (Visit)

Prediction 57.48%1.74fair odd
EV -3.44%
Edge -2.05%
Kelly -5.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.22%57.42%57.48%58.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.611.611.6868.03%62.17%62.11%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.56%4.43fair odd
EV -3.20%
Edge -0.745%
Kelly -0.972%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.68%22.57%22.58%23.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.024.034.2926.67%24.90%24.84%23.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Wolfsberger AC (Local): 19.96%; Sturm Graz (Visit): 57.48%; Draw: 22.56%. For Wolfsberger AC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.01. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.03, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.387%.

Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯5.03I 19.88%NM 19.22%EV +0.387%E +0.077%K +0.096%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 58.24%EV -4.59%E -2.76%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.29I 23.31%NM 22.54%EV -3.20%E -0.745%K -0.972%G +0.000%3.4%2026-11-01 13:10
Tipico (DE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -0.212%E -0.042%K -0.053%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.47%EV -8.04%E -5.02%K -13.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -7.48%E -1.83%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-01 13:00
FanDuel🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.95%EV -2.21%E -0.451%K -0.566%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.40%EV -8.61%E -5.42%K -14.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.65%EV -7.48%E -1.83%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-01 13:24
Betr (AU)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -4.20%E -0.876%K -1.11%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -6.89%E -4.25%K -11.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -5.23%E -1.24%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-01 08:35
LowVig.ag🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -4.20%E -0.876%K -1.11%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.57%EV -6.31%E -3.87%K -10.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -7.48%E -1.83%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.6%2026-11-01 13:15
BetOnline.ag🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -4.20%E -0.876%K -1.11%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.57%EV -6.31%E -3.87%K -10.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -7.48%E -1.83%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.6%2026-11-01 13:15
Coolbet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.75%EV -5.20%E -1.09%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.91%EV -6.89%E -4.25%K -11.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -5.23%E -1.24%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.6%2026-11-01 08:35
BetMGM🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -5.20%E -1.09%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.06%EV -7.46%E -4.63%K -12.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -5.23%E -1.24%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-01 12:45
Fanatics🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.64%EV -5.20%E -1.09%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.60%EV -6.89%E -4.25%K -11.11%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -7.48%E -1.83%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-01 10:40
1xBet🎯4.74I 21.10%NM 19.71%EV -5.40%E -1.14%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.04%EV -7.46%E -4.63%K -12.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -5.23%E -1.24%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-01 12:50
DraftKings🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.13%EV -6.20%E -1.32%K -1.68%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.34%EV -5.16%E -3.13%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -5.23%E -1.24%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-11-01 13:15
NordicBet🎯4.65I 21.51%NM 19.78%EV -7.20%E -1.55%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.50%EV -8.04%E -5.02%K -13.39%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.72%EV -8.61%E -2.13%K -2.82%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-01 13:10
Betsson🎯4.65I 21.51%NM 19.78%EV -7.20%E -1.55%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.50%EV -8.04%E -5.02%K -13.39%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.72%EV -8.61%E -2.13%K -2.82%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-01 13:10
Bovada🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.30%EV -8.19%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.93%EV -5.74%E -3.50%K -8.96%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -7.48%E -1.83%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-01 13:08
Unibet (UK)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -8.19%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -6.89%E -4.25%K -11.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -5.23%E -1.24%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-01 13:00
theScore Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.05%EV -8.19%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.00%EV -8.61%E -5.42%K -14.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.96%EV -5.23%E -1.24%K -1.63%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-01 13:00
William Hill🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -8.19%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.58%EV -6.89%E -4.25%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -12.00%E -3.08%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-01 13:04
Bet Right🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -8.19%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -8.04%E -5.02%K -13.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -9.74%E -2.44%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.2%2026-11-01 08:35
888sport🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.85%EV -8.19%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.73%EV -7.46%E -4.63%K -12.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -12.00%E -3.08%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-01 13:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.85%EV -8.19%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.73%EV -7.46%E -4.63%K -12.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -12.00%E -3.08%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-01 13:00
888sport (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.85%EV -8.19%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.73%EV -7.46%E -4.63%K -12.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -12.00%E -3.08%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-01 13:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.57%EV -8.19%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.34%EV -9.76%E -6.22%K -17.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.08%EV -12.00%E -3.08%K -4.14%G +0.000%11.1%2026-11-01 13:20
Betway🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.33%EV -10.19%E -2.26%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.81%EV -7.46%E -4.63%K -12.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.87%EV -9.74%E -2.44%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-01 13:00
Codere (IT)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.18%EV -10.19%E -2.26%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 57.12%EV -8.61%E -5.42%K -14.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -9.74%E -2.44%K -3.25%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-01 13:00
PlayUp🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%EV -10.19%E -2.26%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.46%EV -8.04%E -5.02%K -13.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.46%EV -13.13%E -3.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%10.7%2026-11-01 13:10
betfred_uk🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.74%EV -10.19%E -2.26%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.58%EV -9.76%E -6.22%K -17.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.69%EV -15.38%E -4.10%K -5.59%G +0.000%12.6%2026-11-01 08:34
Winamax (DE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -12.19%E -2.77%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 57.63%EV -9.19%E -5.81%K -15.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%EV -5.23%E -1.24%K -1.63%G +0.000%9.8%2026-11-01 13:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.28%EV -12.19%E -2.77%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.84%EV -9.76%E -6.22%K -17.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.88%EV -12.00%E -3.08%K -4.14%G +0.000%12.1%2026-11-01 12:45
Neds🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.28%EV -12.19%E -2.77%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.84%EV -9.76%E -6.22%K -17.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.88%EV -12.00%E -3.08%K -4.14%G +0.000%12.1%2026-11-01 12:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.28%EV -12.19%E -2.77%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.84%EV -9.76%E -6.22%K -17.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.88%EV -12.00%E -3.08%K -4.14%G +0.000%12.1%2026-11-01 12:45
Coral🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.28%EV -12.19%E -2.77%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.84%EV -9.76%E -6.22%K -17.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.88%EV -12.00%E -3.08%K -4.14%G +0.000%12.1%2026-11-01 12:45
SportsBet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 19.95%EV -12.19%E -2.77%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 56.64%EV -10.91%E -7.04%K -19.84%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.41%EV -15.38%E -4.10%K -5.59%G +0.000%13.9%2026-11-01 13:20
Casumo🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.50%EV -13.18%E -3.03%K -3.94%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.68%EV -3.44%E -2.05%K -5.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -7.48%E -1.83%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-01 10:40
Unibet (NL)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.50%EV -13.18%E -3.03%K -3.94%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.68%EV -3.44%E -2.05%K -5.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -7.48%E -1.83%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-01 10:40
TABtouch🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.50%EV -13.18%E -3.03%K -3.94%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.68%EV -3.44%E -2.05%K -5.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -7.48%E -1.83%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-01 10:40
Unibet (SE)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.50%EV -13.18%E -3.03%K -3.94%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.68%EV -3.44%E -2.05%K -5.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -7.48%E -1.83%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-01 10:39
Grosvenor🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.50%EV -13.18%E -3.03%K -3.94%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.68%EV -3.44%E -2.05%K -5.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -7.48%E -1.83%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-01 10:40
Svenska Spel🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.50%EV -13.18%E -3.03%K -3.94%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.68%EV -3.44%E -2.05%K -5.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -7.48%E -1.83%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-01 10:40
ATG (SE)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.50%EV -13.18%E -3.03%K -3.94%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.68%EV -3.44%E -2.05%K -5.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -7.48%E -1.83%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-01 10:40
Unibet🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.50%EV -13.18%E -3.03%K -3.94%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.68%EV -3.44%E -2.05%K -5.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -7.48%E -1.83%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-01 10:40
Sky Bet🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.39%EV -13.58%E -3.14%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 56.97%EV -10.91%E -7.04%K -19.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.64%EV -12.00%E -3.08%K -4.14%G +0.000%13.3%2026-11-01 13:09
Betclic (FR)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 20.35%EV -14.18%E -3.30%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 57.20%EV -12.06%E -7.88%K -22.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.44%EV -12.00%E -3.08%K -4.14%G +0.000%14.3%2026-11-01 13:04
Unibet (FR)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 19.89%EV -14.18%E -3.30%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 58.18%EV -15.51%E -10.55%K -33.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.93%EV -12.00%E -3.08%K -4.14%G +0.000%16.9%2026-11-01 13:05
BetRivers🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -16.18%E -3.85%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 55.22%EV -5.74%E -3.50%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.22%EV -12.00%E -3.08%K -4.14%G +0.000%10.4%2026-11-01 10:40
BoyleSports🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 20.85%EV -16.18%E -3.85%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 57.25%EV -12.06%E -7.88%K -22.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.90%EV -9.74%E -2.44%K -3.25%G +0.000%14.2%2026-11-01 13:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 21.68%EV -18.17%E -4.43%K -5.86%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.22%EV -7.46%E -4.63%K -12.23%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.09%EV -13.13%E -3.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%12.5%2026-11-01 10:40
PMU (FR)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 21.68%EV -18.17%E -4.43%K -5.86%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.22%EV -7.46%E -4.63%K -12.23%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.09%EV -13.13%E -3.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%12.5%2026-11-01 10:40
LiveScore Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 21.68%EV -18.17%E -4.43%K -5.86%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.22%EV -7.46%E -4.63%K -12.23%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.09%EV -13.13%E -3.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%12.5%2026-11-01 10:39
Virgin Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 21.68%EV -18.17%E -4.43%K -5.86%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.22%EV -7.46%E -4.63%K -12.23%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.09%EV -13.13%E -3.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%12.5%2026-11-01 10:40
Winamax (FR)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 21.28%EV -18.17%E -4.43%K -5.86%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 56.64%EV -11.48%E -7.46%K -21.27%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.08%EV -10.87%E -2.75%K -3.68%G +0.000%14.6%2026-11-01 13:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎5.20I 19.23%NM 18.98%1.70I 58.82%NM 58.06%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.96%1.3%2026-11-01 13:20
Matchbook◎5.20I 19.23%NM 18.98%1.70I 58.82%NM 58.06%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.96%1.3%2026-11-01 13:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.20I 19.23%NM 18.92%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.21%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.88%1.7%2026-11-01 13:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.20I 19.23%NM 18.92%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.21%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.88%1.7%2026-11-01 13:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.20I 19.23%NM 18.92%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.21%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.88%1.7%2026-11-01 13:25

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