Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ried v Austria Wien

Kickoff: 2026-03-08 16:02 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

51 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ried (Local)

Prediction 39.72%2.52fair odd
EV +0.491%
Edge +0.194%
Kelly +0.321%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 2.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.88%39.73%39.72%40.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.322.332.5347.62%43.19%42.92%39.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Austria Wien (Visit)

Prediction 30.60%3.27fair odd
EV -0.861%
Edge -0.266%
Kelly -0.385%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.70%30.60%30.63%32.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.962.953.2437.04%33.77%33.90%30.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.68%3.37fair odd
EV -2.94%
Edge -0.899%
Kelly -1.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.51%29.67%29.66%31.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.063.053.2736.36%32.64%32.79%30.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ried (Local): 39.72%; Austria Wien (Visit): 30.60%; Draw: 29.68%. For Ried (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.52. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.53, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.491%.

Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 37.88%EV +0.491%E +0.194%K +0.321%G +0.002%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.82%EV -10.65%E -3.65%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.31%EV -2.94%E -0.899%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-08 15:59
Coolbet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.21%EV -3.48%E -1.43%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.06%EV -3.00%E -0.947%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.73%EV -7.99%E -2.58%K -3.80%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-08 15:59
Pinnacle🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 40.16%EV -4.28%E -1.77%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.97%EV -1.17%E -0.361%K -0.524%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.87%EV -3.83%E -1.18%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-08 15:59
Bovada🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.03%EV -4.67%E -1.95%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -8.21%E -2.74%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -6.50%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-08 15:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -5.47%E -2.30%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -6.68%E -2.19%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -6.50%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-08 15:59
Betsson🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.15%EV -5.47%E -2.30%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.27%EV -8.82%E -2.96%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -6.50%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-08 15:59
NordicBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.15%EV -5.47%E -2.30%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.27%EV -8.82%E -2.96%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -6.50%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-08 16:00
888sport🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -5.47%E -2.30%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -11.26%E -3.88%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -10.95%E -3.65%K -5.48%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-08 15:59
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -5.47%E -2.30%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -11.26%E -3.88%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -10.95%E -3.65%K -5.48%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-08 16:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -5.47%E -2.30%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -11.26%E -3.88%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -10.95%E -3.65%K -5.48%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-08 15:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -5.47%E -2.30%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -11.26%E -3.88%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -10.95%E -3.65%K -5.48%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-08 15:59
BetOnline.ag🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.60%EV -5.86%E -2.47%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.70%EV -0.861%E -0.266%K -0.385%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.70%EV -3.83%E -1.18%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-08 15:59
LowVig.ag🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.60%EV -5.86%E -2.47%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.70%EV -0.861%E -0.266%K -0.385%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.70%EV -3.83%E -1.18%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-08 16:00
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.66%E -2.83%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -5.15%E -1.66%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -7.99%E -2.58%K -3.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 15:59
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.66%E -2.83%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -5.15%E -1.66%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -7.99%E -2.58%K -3.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 16:00
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.66%E -2.83%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -6.68%E -2.19%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -6.50%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 16:00
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.66%E -2.83%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -6.68%E -2.19%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -6.50%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 16:00
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -6.66%E -2.83%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -8.21%E -2.74%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -5.02%E -1.57%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 15:59
Fanatics🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -6.66%E -2.83%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -8.21%E -2.74%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -7.99%E -2.58%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-08 15:59
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.56%EV -6.66%E -2.83%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -11.26%E -3.88%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -10.95%E -3.65%K -5.48%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-08 16:00
TABtouch🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.16%EV -7.45%E -3.20%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -9.73%E -3.30%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.91%EV -9.47%E -3.11%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-08 16:00
BetRivers🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.16%EV -7.45%E -3.20%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -9.73%E -3.30%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.91%EV -9.47%E -3.11%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-08 15:59
Casumo🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.16%EV -7.45%E -3.20%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -9.73%E -3.30%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.91%EV -9.47%E -3.11%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-08 15:59
Grosvenor🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.16%EV -7.45%E -3.20%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -9.73%E -3.30%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.91%EV -9.47%E -3.11%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-08 16:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.16%EV -7.45%E -3.20%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -9.73%E -3.30%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.91%EV -9.47%E -3.11%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-08 15:59
Unibet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.16%EV -7.45%E -3.20%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -9.73%E -3.30%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.91%EV -9.47%E -3.11%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-08 15:59
Unibet (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.16%EV -7.45%E -3.20%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -9.73%E -3.30%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.91%EV -9.47%E -3.11%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-08 16:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.16%EV -7.45%E -3.20%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -9.73%E -3.30%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.91%EV -9.47%E -3.11%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-08 15:59
Svenska Spel🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.16%EV -7.45%E -3.20%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -9.73%E -3.30%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.91%EV -9.47%E -3.11%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-08 15:59
Suprabets🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.00%EV -7.45%E -3.20%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.12%EV -10.65%E -3.65%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 29.89%EV -9.77%E -3.21%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-08 15:57
LiveScore Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.86%EV -7.85%E -3.38%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.09%EV -11.26%E -3.88%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.05%EV -10.95%E -3.65%K -5.48%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-08 16:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.86%EV -7.85%E -3.38%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.09%EV -11.26%E -3.88%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.05%EV -10.95%E -3.65%K -5.48%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-08 15:59
LeoVegas🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.86%EV -7.85%E -3.38%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.09%EV -11.26%E -3.88%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.05%EV -10.95%E -3.65%K -5.48%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-08 16:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.86%EV -7.85%E -3.38%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.09%EV -11.26%E -3.88%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.05%EV -10.95%E -3.65%K -5.48%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-08 16:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -8.64%E -3.76%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -5.15%E -1.66%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -5.02%E -1.57%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-08 15:59
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -8.64%E -3.76%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -8.21%E -2.74%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -5.02%E -1.57%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-08 15:59
Codere (IT)🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 40.28%EV -10.23%E -4.53%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -8.21%E -2.74%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.37%EV -7.99%E -2.58%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-08 16:00
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -10.63%E -4.72%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -6.68%E -2.19%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -6.50%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-08 15:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.55%EV -10.63%E -4.72%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -9.73%E -3.30%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.51%EV -5.02%E -1.57%K -2.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-08 15:59
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.51%EV -10.63%E -4.72%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -11.88%E -4.12%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.63%EV -10.95%E -3.65%K -5.48%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-08 15:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.51%EV -10.63%E -4.72%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -11.88%E -4.12%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.63%EV -10.95%E -3.65%K -5.48%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-08 15:59
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.46%EV -10.63%E -4.72%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.94%EV -12.18%E -4.24%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.60%EV -10.95%E -3.65%K -5.48%G +0.000%12.6%2026-03-08 16:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.46%EV -10.63%E -4.72%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.94%EV -12.18%E -4.24%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.60%EV -10.95%E -3.65%K -5.48%G +0.000%12.6%2026-03-08 15:59
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.19%EV -10.63%E -4.72%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.41%EV -11.26%E -3.88%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.41%EV -13.92%E -4.80%K -7.33%G +0.000%13.4%2026-03-08 16:00
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.16%EV -10.63%E -4.72%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -14.32%E -5.12%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.37%EV -10.95%E -3.65%K -5.48%G +0.000%13.5%2026-03-08 15:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.14%EV -10.63%E -4.72%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.65%EV -14.32%E -5.12%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.21%EV -18.38%E -6.68%K -10.50%G +0.000%16.5%2026-03-08 15:59
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.18%EV -12.62%E -5.73%K -10.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.78%EV -14.32%E -5.12%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.03%EV -14.81%E -5.16%K -7.92%G +0.000%16.0%2026-03-08 15:59
Betclic (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.88%EV -13.41%E -6.15%K -11.36%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 29.90%EV -8.82%E -2.96%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.22%EV -9.47%E -3.11%K -4.62%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-08 15:58
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.68%EV -14.60%E -6.79%K -12.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -11.26%E -3.88%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.16%EV -10.95%E -3.65%K -5.48%G +0.000%14.3%2026-03-08 15:59
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.66%EV -14.60%E -6.79%K -12.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.67%EV -12.79%E -4.49%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.66%EV -9.47%E -3.11%K -4.62%G +0.000%14.4%2026-03-08 15:59
PMU (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 39.56%EV -16.59%E -7.90%K -15.08%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 30.77%EV -17.38%E -6.44%K -10.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 29.67%EV -16.89%E -6.03%K -9.38%G +0.000%20.4%2026-03-08 16:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.48%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.57%0.9%2026-03-08 16:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.48%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.57%0.9%2026-03-08 16:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.48%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.57%0.9%2026-03-08 16:00
Matchbook2.48I 40.32%NM 39.76%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.81%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.43%1.4%2026-03-08 16:00
Smarkets2.46I 40.65%NM 39.77%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.58%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.65%2.2%2026-03-08 16:00