La escuela de los momios

Rapid Wien v Austria Wien

Inicio: 2026-05-10 15:00 UTC

Final: Rapid Wien 0–2 Austria Wien

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

49 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Rapid Wien (Local)

Predicción 43.59%2.29momio equitativo
EV -4.11%
Ventaja -1.87%
Kelly -3.43%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.19%43.53%43.61%44.72%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.912.092.102.2052.36%47.90%47.62%45.45%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Austria Wien (Visitante)

Predicción 29.02%3.45momio equitativo
EV -3.36%
Ventaja -1.01%
Kelly -1.44%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.33

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.35%29.08%28.95%30.55%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.853.163.203.3335.09%31.60%31.25%30.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.39%3.65momio equitativo
EV -2.48%
Ventaja -0.697%
Kelly -0.969%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.56

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.37%27.39%27.43%28.26%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.333.353.5633.33%29.99%29.85%28.09%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.64%EV -4.11%E -1.87%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -8.58%E -2.72%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -6.86%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-07 15:05
BetMGM2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.11%E -1.87%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -10.03%E -3.24%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -6.86%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-07 15:15
theScore Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -4.11%E -1.87%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -10.03%E -3.24%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -8.23%E -2.46%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-08 05:14
Pinnacle2.19I 45.66%NM 44.00%EV -4.55%E -2.08%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.94%EV -3.36%E -1.01%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.07%EV -2.48%E -0.697%K -0.969%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-10 01:44
Coolbet2.17I 46.08%NM 43.88%EV -5.42%E -2.50%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.60%EV -3.36%E -1.01%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.52%EV -5.22%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-08 23:49
LowVig.ag2.16I 46.30%NM 43.67%EV -5.86%E -2.71%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -4.23%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -6.86%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-09 21:35
BetOnline.ag2.16I 46.30%NM 43.67%EV -5.86%E -2.71%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -4.23%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -6.86%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-09 21:34
DraftKings2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.29%E -2.93%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -7.13%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -4.13%E -1.18%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 15:05
1xBet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -6.29%E -2.93%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.01%EV -6.26%E -1.94%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.40%EV -6.32%E -1.85%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-10 03:09
Bovada2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -6.29%E -2.93%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -7.13%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -5.49%E -1.59%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 15:44
Betway2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -6.29%E -2.93%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.13%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.60%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-10 01:00
Betsson2.12I 47.17%NM 43.92%EV -7.60%E -3.58%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -7.13%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -5.49%E -1.59%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-10 01:39
NordicBet2.12I 47.17%NM 43.92%EV -7.60%E -3.58%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -7.13%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -5.49%E -1.59%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-10 01:39
PlayUp2.12I 47.17%NM 42.74%EV -7.60%E -3.58%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.21%EV -12.93%E -4.31%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.05%EV -8.23%E -2.46%K -3.50%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-10 01:39
FanDuel2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -8.47%E -4.03%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -4.23%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -4.13%E -1.18%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-09 15:44
Betr (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -8.47%E -4.03%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.68%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -4.13%E -1.18%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-09 15:44
888sport2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -8.47%E -4.03%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -7.13%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -10.97%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-08 16:05
Mr Green (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -8.47%E -4.03%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -7.13%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -10.97%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-08 16:04
888sport (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -8.47%E -4.03%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -7.13%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -10.97%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-08 16:04
William Hill2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -8.47%E -4.03%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -7.13%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -10.97%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-08 16:04
Betclic (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.21%EV -8.47%E -4.03%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 29.46%EV -10.61%E -3.45%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 27.33%EV -9.06%E -2.73%K -3.90%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-10 03:07
Neds2.10I 47.62%NM 42.19%EV -8.47%E -4.03%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.55%EV -15.84%E -5.46%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -10.97%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-07 15:14
Ladbrokes (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.19%EV -8.47%E -4.03%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.55%EV -15.84%E -5.46%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -10.97%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-07 15:14
Ladbrokes (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.19%EV -8.47%E -4.03%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.55%EV -15.84%E -5.46%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -10.97%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-07 15:14
Coral2.10I 47.62%NM 42.19%EV -8.47%E -4.03%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.55%EV -15.84%E -5.46%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -10.97%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-07 15:15
Unibet2.08I 48.08%NM 44.42%EV -9.34%E -4.49%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -4.23%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -8.23%E -2.46%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-06 16:20
Grosvenor2.08I 48.08%NM 44.42%EV -9.34%E -4.49%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -4.23%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -8.23%E -2.46%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-06 16:20
Casumo2.08I 48.08%NM 44.42%EV -9.34%E -4.49%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -4.23%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -8.23%E -2.46%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-06 16:20
Unibet (NL)2.08I 48.08%NM 44.42%EV -9.34%E -4.49%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -4.23%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -8.23%E -2.46%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-06 16:19
Unibet (SE)2.08I 48.08%NM 44.42%EV -9.34%E -4.49%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -4.23%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -8.23%E -2.46%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-06 16:19
BetRivers2.08I 48.08%NM 44.42%EV -9.34%E -4.49%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -4.23%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -8.23%E -2.46%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-06 16:18
TABtouch2.08I 48.08%NM 44.42%EV -9.34%E -4.49%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -4.23%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -8.23%E -2.46%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-06 16:19
ATG (SE)2.08I 48.08%NM 44.42%EV -9.34%E -4.49%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -4.23%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -8.23%E -2.46%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-06 16:19
Svenska Spel2.08I 48.08%NM 44.42%EV -9.34%E -4.49%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -4.23%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -8.23%E -2.46%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-06 16:20
Bet Right2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -10.65%E -5.19%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -7.13%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -6.86%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-09 15:39
LiveScore Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -10.65%E -5.19%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -5.68%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -9.60%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-06 16:20
LeoVegas2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -10.65%E -5.19%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -5.68%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -9.60%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-06 16:19
LeoVegas (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -10.65%E -5.19%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -5.68%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -9.60%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-06 16:19
Virgin Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -10.65%E -5.19%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -5.68%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -9.60%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-06 16:20
betfred_uk2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -10.65%E -5.19%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -10.03%E -3.24%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -9.60%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-09 15:40
Suprabets2.05I 48.78%NM 43.54%EV -10.65%E -5.19%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 29.17%EV -11.19%E -3.66%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 27.29%EV -10.43%E -3.19%K -4.59%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-10 01:41
Winamax (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.35%EV -10.65%E -5.19%K -10.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.12%EV -14.39%E -4.88%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.53%EV -8.23%E -2.46%K -3.50%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-08 05:14
Sky Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -12.83%E -6.41%K -12.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -10.03%E -3.24%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -9.60%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-09 15:39
BoyleSports2.00I 50.00%NM 44.00%EV -12.83%E -6.41%K -12.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -12.93%E -4.31%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -9.60%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-08 16:04
Unibet (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 43.82%EV -12.83%E -6.41%K -12.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.21%EV -12.93%E -4.31%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.97%EV -10.97%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-10 03:04
Winamax (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 42.98%EV -12.83%E -6.41%K -12.83%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.16%EV -17.29%E -6.07%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.86%EV -12.34%E -3.86%K -5.61%G +0.000%16.3%2026-05-08 05:14
PMU (FR)1.97I 50.76%NM 44.43%EV -14.14%E -7.18%K -14.57%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.79%EV -8.58%E -2.72%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.79%EV -13.71%E -4.35%K -6.38%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-06 16:19
SportsBet1.95I 51.28%NM 44.62%EV -15.01%E -7.70%K -15.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.01%EV -12.93%E -4.31%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.37%EV -9.60%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%14.9%2026-05-09 15:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 44.39%EV -16.75%E -8.77%K -18.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.35%EV -10.03%E -3.24%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.26%EV -17.82%E -5.94%K -8.91%G +0.000%17.9%2026-05-09 17:03
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.26I 44.25%NM 43.27%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.19%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.54%2.3%2026-05-10 03:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.26I 44.25%NM 43.27%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.19%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.54%2.3%2026-05-10 03:04
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.26I 44.25%NM 43.27%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.19%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.54%2.3%2026-05-10 03:04
Matchbook2.24I 44.64%NM 43.49%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.08%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.44%2.7%2026-05-10 03:04
Smarkets2.24I 44.64%NM 43.13%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.27%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.60%3.5%2026-05-10 01:55