Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

LASK v Grazer AK

Inicio: 2026-07-31 17:30 UTC

Final: LASK 3–0 Grazer AK

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

50 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

LASK (Local)

Predicción 61.47%1.63momio equitativo
EV -4.72%
Ventaja -3.04%
Kelly -8.58%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
59.70%61.60%61.33%63.61%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.441.511.501.5569.44%66.30%66.45%64.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Grazer AK (Visitante)

Predicción 16.80%5.95momio equitativo
EV +2.47%
Ventaja +0.405%
Kelly +0.485%
Crecimiento +0.012%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.64%16.76%16.89%17.96%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.005.405.286.1020.00%18.52%18.96%16.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 21.73%4.60momio equitativo
EV -0.046%
Ventaja -0.010%
Kelly -0.013%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.32%21.65%21.78%22.72%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.904.174.104.6025.64%23.98%24.39%21.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: LASK (Local): 61.47%; Grazer AK (Visitante): 16.80%; Empate: 21.73%. Para Grazer AK (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.95. 3 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 6.10, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.47%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
BetOnline.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.61%EV -7.79%E -5.19%K -15.58%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.64%EV +2.47%E +0.405%K +0.485%G +0.012%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.74%EV -0.046%E -0.010%K -0.013%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-31 17:14
LowVig.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.61%EV -7.79%E -5.19%K -15.58%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.64%EV +2.47%E +0.405%K +0.485%G +0.012%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.74%EV -0.046%E -0.010%K -0.013%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-31 17:14
Pinnacle🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.15%EV -6.56%E -4.32%K -12.62%G +0.000%6.02I 16.61%NM 15.94%EV +1.13%E +0.188%K +0.225%G +0.003%4.59I 21.79%NM 20.91%EV -0.263%E -0.057%K -0.073%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-31 17:15
NordicBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.58%EV -6.56%E -4.32%K -12.62%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.86%EV -0.887%E -0.150%K -0.181%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.55%EV -9.82%E -2.37%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-31 17:14
Betsson🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.58%EV -6.56%E -4.32%K -12.62%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.86%EV -0.887%E -0.150%K -0.181%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.55%EV -9.82%E -2.37%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-31 17:24
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.69%EV -9.02%E -6.10%K -18.79%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.73%EV -0.887%E -0.150%K -0.181%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV -6.56%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-31 17:15
1xBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.80%EV -4.72%E -3.04%K -8.58%G +0.000%5.83I 17.15%NM 16.43%EV -2.06%E -0.354%K -0.427%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.77%EV -4.39%E -0.998%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-31 17:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.57%EV -9.64%E -6.56%K -20.50%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV -2.57%E -0.443%K -0.535%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -0.046%E -0.010%K -0.013%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-31 17:24
DraftKings🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.57%EV -7.18%E -4.75%K -14.07%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.43%EV -3.41%E -0.592%K -0.717%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.00%EV -2.22%E -0.493%K -0.634%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-31 17:14
Betr (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.81%EV -6.56%E -4.32%K -12.62%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.34%EV -3.41%E -0.592%K -0.717%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.85%EV -6.56%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-31 17:24
Bovada🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.54%EV -6.56%E -4.32%K -12.62%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV -5.93%E -1.06%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.75%EV -6.56%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-31 17:18
BetMGM🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.29%EV -5.95%E -3.89%K -11.22%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -7.61%E -1.38%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.66%EV -5.91%E -1.37%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-31 17:18
theScore Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.89%EV -5.33%E -3.46%K -9.88%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -7.61%E -1.38%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.06%EV -7.65%E -1.80%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-31 17:19
Coolbet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.88%EV -5.95%E -3.89%K -11.22%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -7.61%E -1.38%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-31 17:14
Unibet (UK)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.20%EV -6.56%E -4.32%K -12.62%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%EV -7.61%E -1.38%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89%EV -7.65%E -1.80%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-31 17:15
Fanatics🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.56%EV -5.95%E -3.89%K -11.22%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.85%EV -7.61%E -1.38%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-31 17:14
Betway🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.58%EV -9.02%E -6.10%K -18.79%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -7.61%E -1.38%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -2.22%E -0.493%K -0.634%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-31 17:24
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.79%E -5.19%K -15.58%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -7.61%E -1.38%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-31 17:24
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.79%E -5.19%K -15.58%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -7.61%E -1.38%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-31 17:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.79%E -5.19%K -15.58%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -7.61%E -1.38%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-31 17:24
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.79%E -5.19%K -15.58%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -7.61%E -1.38%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-31 17:24
Bet Right🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.87%EV -7.18%E -4.75%K -14.07%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV -7.61%E -1.38%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.42%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-31 17:14
Suprabets🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.67%EV -9.02%E -6.10%K -18.79%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.60%EV -7.61%E -1.38%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.73%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-31 17:13
Codere (IT)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.84%EV -7.79%E -5.19%K -15.58%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.90%EV -9.29%E -1.72%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-31 17:20
SportsBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.94%EV -11.48%E -7.97%K -26.09%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.56%EV -10.97%E -2.07%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.50%EV -15.26%E -3.91%K -5.26%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-31 17:14
TABtouch🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.76%EV -4.72%E -3.04%K -8.58%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.64%EV -11.81%E -2.25%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.59%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-31 17:19
Svenska Spel🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.76%EV -4.72%E -3.04%K -8.58%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.64%EV -11.81%E -2.25%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.59%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-31 17:19
ATG (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.76%EV -4.72%E -3.04%K -8.58%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.64%EV -11.81%E -2.25%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.59%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-31 17:19
BetRivers🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.76%EV -4.72%E -3.04%K -8.58%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.64%EV -11.81%E -2.25%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.59%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-31 17:19
Grosvenor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.76%EV -4.72%E -3.04%K -8.58%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.64%EV -11.81%E -2.25%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.59%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-31 17:20
Casumo🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.76%EV -4.72%E -3.04%K -8.58%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.64%EV -11.81%E -2.25%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.59%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-31 17:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.76%EV -4.72%E -3.04%K -8.58%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.64%EV -11.81%E -2.25%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.59%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-31 17:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.76%EV -4.72%E -3.04%K -8.58%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.64%EV -11.81%E -2.25%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.59%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-31 17:19
Unibet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.76%EV -4.72%E -3.04%K -8.58%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.64%EV -11.81%E -2.25%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.59%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-31 17:20
PlayUp🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.22%EV -7.79%E -5.19%K -15.58%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.20%EV -11.81%E -2.25%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -13.08%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-31 17:15
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.85%EV -11.48%E -7.97%K -26.09%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.69%EV -11.81%E -2.25%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.47%EV -15.26%E -3.91%K -5.26%G +0.000%14.1%2026-07-31 17:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.80%EV -6.56%E -4.32%K -12.62%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.48%EV -12.65%E -2.43%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.72%EV -13.08%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-31 17:19
LiveScore Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.80%EV -6.56%E -4.32%K -12.62%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.48%EV -12.65%E -2.43%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.72%EV -13.08%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-31 17:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 59.96%EV -7.18%E -4.75%K -14.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.41%EV -12.65%E -2.43%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.63%EV -13.08%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-31 17:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.87%EV -7.79%E -5.19%K -15.58%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.90%EV -14.33%E -2.81%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.23%EV -6.56%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-31 17:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.88%EV -9.64%E -6.56%K -20.50%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.55%EV -14.33%E -2.81%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.57%EV -9.82%E -2.37%K -3.12%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-31 17:18
Unibet (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 60.55%EV -10.87%E -7.49%K -24.15%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.22%EV -14.33%E -2.81%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.23%EV -14.17%E -3.59%K -4.80%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-31 17:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.67%EV -9.02%E -6.10%K -18.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.96%EV -16.01%E -3.20%K -4.00%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.38%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-31 17:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -7.79%E -5.19%K -15.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -16.01%E -3.20%K -4.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -13.08%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-31 17:19
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -7.79%E -5.19%K -15.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -16.01%E -3.20%K -4.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -13.08%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-31 17:19
Neds🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -7.79%E -5.19%K -15.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -16.01%E -3.20%K -4.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -13.08%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-31 17:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -7.79%E -5.19%K -15.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -16.01%E -3.20%K -4.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -13.08%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-31 17:19
betfred_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -7.79%E -5.19%K -15.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -16.01%E -3.20%K -4.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -13.08%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-31 17:14
PMU (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 59.85%EV -9.64%E -6.56%K -20.50%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.60%EV -16.01%E -3.20%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.56%EV -15.26%E -3.91%K -5.26%G +0.000%13.7%2026-07-31 17:20
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -11.48%E -7.97%K -26.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -16.01%E -3.20%K -4.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -13.08%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000%14.4%2026-07-31 17:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.56I 64.10%NM 63.47%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.00%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53%1.0%2026-07-31 17:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.56I 64.10%NM 63.47%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.00%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53%1.0%2026-07-31 17:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.56I 64.10%NM 63.47%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.00%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53%1.0%2026-07-31 17:25
Smarkets1.56I 64.10%NM 63.47%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.00%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53%1.0%2026-07-31 17:24
Matchbook1.56I 64.10%NM 63.47%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.00%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53%1.0%2026-07-31 17:25