The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Wellington Phoenix FC v Melbourne Victory

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 02:00 UTC

Final: Wellington Phoenix FC 2–1 Melbourne Victory

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

50 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Wellington Phoenix FC (Local)

Prediction 26.53%3.77fair odd
EV -0.512%
Edge -0.137%
Kelly -0.186%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.00%26.74%26.20%29.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.443.403.7532.26%29.10%29.41%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Melbourne Victory (Visit)

Prediction 46.96%2.13fair odd
EV -0.438%
Edge -0.207%
Kelly -0.391%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.34%46.90%47.17%48.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.992.002.1254.64%50.13%50.00%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.51%3.77fair odd
EV +2.05%
Edge +0.533%
Kelly +0.720%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.77%26.35%26.63%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.513.503.8530.30%28.49%28.57%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Wellington Phoenix FC (Local): 26.53%; Melbourne Victory (Visit): 46.96%; Draw: 26.51%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.77. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.05%.

Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.81%EV -15.10%E -4.72%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.42%EV -1.38%E -0.656%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.77%EV +2.05%E +0.533%K +0.720%G +0.015%4.8%2026-10-15 08:45
Betr (AU)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -13.78%E -4.24%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.54%EV -6.07%E -3.04%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.82%EV -0.599%E -0.160%K -0.218%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-18 01:40
LowVig.ag🎯3.71I 26.95%NM 26.05%EV -1.57%E -0.424%K -0.581%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.84%EV -5.13%E -2.54%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.12%EV -1.92%E -0.520%K -0.713%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-18 01:50
BetOnline.ag🎯3.71I 26.95%NM 26.05%EV -1.57%E -0.424%K -0.581%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.84%EV -5.13%E -2.54%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.12%EV -1.92%E -0.520%K -0.713%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-18 01:50
ATG (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.39%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.53%EV -0.438%E -0.207%K -0.391%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.09%EV -1.92%E -0.520%K -0.713%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-18 01:55
Pinnacle🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.78%EV -0.512%E -0.137%K -0.186%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.87%EV -5.13%E -2.54%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 26.35%EV -2.72%E -0.741%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-18 01:55
Marathon Bet🎯3.44I 29.07%NM 27.03%EV -8.74%E -2.54%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.43%EV -7.95%E -4.06%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.54%EV -3.51%E -0.966%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-18 01:35
GTbets🎯3.72I 26.88%NM 25.78%EV -1.31%E -0.352%K -0.481%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.72%EV -5.60%E -2.79%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.50%EV -4.04%E -1.12%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-18 01:50
Coral🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.79%EV -1.84%E -0.497%K -0.681%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.71%EV -6.07%E -3.04%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -4.58%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-18 01:50
DraftKings🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.05%EV -3.17%E -0.867%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.54%EV -6.07%E -3.04%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.41%EV -4.58%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-18 01:55
Codere (IT)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.36%EV -8.47%E -2.46%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -3.73%E -1.82%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -5.90%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-18 01:35
Bovada🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -4.49%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.57%EV -7.48%E -3.80%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.40%EV -5.90%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-18 01:49
BetUS🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -4.49%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.57%EV -7.48%E -3.80%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.40%EV -5.90%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-18 01:55
SportsBet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%EV -1.84%E -0.497%K -0.681%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.47%EV -6.54%E -3.29%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -7.23%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-18 01:45
picklebet_au🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -7.14%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -3.73%E -1.82%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -7.23%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-18 01:35
TAB🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -4.49%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -6.07%E -3.04%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.23%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-18 01:55
Fanatics🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -4.49%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -6.07%E -3.04%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.23%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-18 01:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -4.49%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -6.07%E -3.04%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.23%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-18 01:50
Unibet (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -3.73%E -1.82%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -7.23%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-18 01:35
Neds🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -1.84%E -0.497%K -0.681%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -8.42%E -4.32%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -7.23%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 01:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -1.84%E -0.497%K -0.681%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -8.42%E -4.32%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -7.23%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 01:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -1.84%E -0.497%K -0.681%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -8.42%E -4.32%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -7.23%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 01:50
PlayUp🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -1.84%E -0.497%K -0.681%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -8.42%E -4.32%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -7.23%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 01:55
Paddy Power🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -4.49%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -8.42%E -4.32%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -7.23%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-18 01:44
BetMGM🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -4.49%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -8.42%E -4.32%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -7.23%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-18 01:48
betPARX🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -13.78%E -4.24%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -3.73%E -1.82%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -7.23%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-18 01:55
Unibet (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -13.78%E -4.24%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -3.73%E -1.82%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -7.23%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-18 01:55
Svenska Spel🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -13.78%E -4.24%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -3.73%E -1.82%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -7.23%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-18 01:55
Casumo🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -13.78%E -4.24%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -3.73%E -1.82%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -7.23%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-18 01:55
Grosvenor🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -13.78%E -4.24%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -3.73%E -1.82%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -7.23%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-18 01:55
Unibet (NL)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -13.78%E -4.24%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -3.73%E -1.82%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -7.23%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-18 01:55
TABtouch🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -13.78%E -4.24%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -3.73%E -1.82%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -7.23%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-18 01:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -15.10%E -4.72%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.04%EV -4.20%E -2.06%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -7.23%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-18 01:55
Bet Right🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -12.45%E -3.77%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 46.05%EV -6.54%E -3.29%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -7.23%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-18 01:55
betfred_uk🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -13.78%E -4.24%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -6.07%E -3.04%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -7.23%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-18 01:55
Winamax (DE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -13.78%E -4.24%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.98%EV -7.01%E -3.54%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.01%EV -7.23%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-18 01:35
Betsson🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -1.84%E -0.497%K -0.681%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.18%EV -9.83%E -5.12%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -8.55%E -2.48%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-18 01:55
NordicBet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -1.84%E -0.497%K -0.681%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.18%EV -9.83%E -5.12%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -8.55%E -2.48%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-18 01:55
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -17.76%E -5.73%K -8.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.34%EV -3.73%E -1.82%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -8.55%E -2.48%K -3.49%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-18 01:55
Winamax (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -15.10%E -4.72%K -6.87%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.11%EV -8.89%E -4.58%K -9.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.93%EV -8.55%E -2.48%K -3.49%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-18 01:35
William Hill🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -6.07%E -3.04%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -9.88%E -2.90%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-18 01:40
888sport (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -6.07%E -3.04%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -9.88%E -2.90%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-18 01:45
888sport🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -6.07%E -3.04%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -9.88%E -2.90%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-18 01:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -6.07%E -3.04%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -9.88%E -2.90%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-18 01:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -7.14%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -10.30%E -5.39%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -9.88%E -2.90%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-18 01:45
Virgin Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.58%EV -17.76%E -5.73%K -8.46%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 44.97%EV -7.48%E -3.80%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.45%EV -11.20%E -3.34%K -4.77%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-18 01:55
LiveScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.58%EV -17.76%E -5.73%K -8.46%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 44.97%EV -7.48%E -3.80%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.45%EV -11.20%E -3.34%K -4.77%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-18 01:55
PMU (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.51%EV -17.76%E -5.73%K -8.46%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 45.10%EV -7.95%E -4.06%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.39%EV -11.20%E -3.34%K -4.77%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-18 01:55
Unibet (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 26.69%EV -13.78%E -4.24%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 47.41%EV -14.06%E -7.68%K -16.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.90%EV -11.20%E -3.34%K -4.77%G +0.000%15.3%2026-10-18 01:35
NetBet (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 27.55%EV -16.43%E -5.22%K -7.64%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 46.16%EV -11.71%E -6.23%K -13.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.30%EV -12.53%E -3.80%K -5.45%G +0.000%15.2%2026-10-18 01:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.95I 25.32%NM 25.07%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.53%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.40%1.0%2026-10-18 01:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.95I 25.32%NM 25.07%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.53%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.40%1.0%2026-10-18 01:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.95I 25.32%NM 25.07%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.53%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.40%1.0%2026-10-18 01:55
Matchbook◎3.90I 25.64%NM 25.31%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.38%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.32%1.3%2026-10-18 01:55
Smarkets◎3.90I 25.64%NM 25.22%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.21%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.58%1.7%2026-10-18 01:55
Kalshi◎3.85I 25.97%NM 25.46%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.05%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%2.0%2026-10-18 01:45