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Wellington Phoenix FC v Central Coast Mariners

2026-10-25 02:00 UTC — A-League

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Wellington Phoenix FC (Local)

Prediction 51.16%1.95fair odd
EV -4.34%
Edge -2.32%
Kelly -4.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.51%51.16%50.97%52.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.641.791.801.8760.98%55.92%55.56%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Central Coast Mariners (Visit)

Prediction 23.72%4.22fair odd
EV -5.13%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -1.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.30%23.72%23.77%25.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.783.804.0028.99%26.45%26.32%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.13%3.98fair odd
EV -0.754%
Edge -0.191%
Kelly -0.256%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.09%25.13%25.25%25.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.703.753.9528.17%27.00%26.67%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Wellington Phoenix FC (Local): 51.16%; Central Coast Mariners (Visit): 23.72%; Draw: 25.13%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.98. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.95, with an expected value of -0.754%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.72%EV -4.34%E -2.32%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.96%EV -9.88%E -2.60%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.32%EV -2.01%E -0.515%K -0.693%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-03 21:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.79%EV -5.36%E -2.90%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -5.13%E -1.28%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.26%EV -0.754%E -0.191%K -0.256%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-17 07:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.99%EV -5.36%E -2.90%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -9.88%E -2.60%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -2.01%E -0.515%K -0.693%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-16 18:49
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -5.36%E -2.90%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -9.88%E -2.60%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -4.52%E -1.19%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-03 21:24
Marathon Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -7.92%E -4.40%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -7.50%E -1.92%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -4.52%E -1.19%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-28 09:00
betPARX🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -7.92%E -4.40%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.01%EV -8.69%E -2.26%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -5.78%E -1.54%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-17 07:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -7.92%E -4.40%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.01%EV -8.69%E -2.26%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -5.78%E -1.54%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-17 07:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -7.92%E -4.40%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.01%EV -8.69%E -2.26%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -5.78%E -1.54%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-17 07:05
Casumo🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -7.92%E -4.40%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.01%EV -8.69%E -2.26%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -5.78%E -1.54%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-17 07:05
Grosvenor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -7.92%E -4.40%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.01%EV -8.69%E -2.26%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -5.78%E -1.54%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-17 07:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -7.92%E -4.40%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.01%EV -8.69%E -2.26%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -5.78%E -1.54%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-17 07:05
TABtouch🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -7.92%E -4.40%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.01%EV -8.69%E -2.26%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -5.78%E -1.54%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-17 07:05
Betsson🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.13%EV -7.92%E -4.40%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -6.32%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -9.55%E -2.65%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-16 06:20
NordicBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.13%EV -7.92%E -4.40%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -6.32%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -9.55%E -2.65%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-16 06:09
picklebet_au🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -7.92%E -4.40%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -9.88%E -2.60%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -7.04%E -1.90%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-14 07:39
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.67%EV -7.92%E -4.40%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -9.88%E -2.60%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -9.55%E -2.65%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-27 12:35
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.67%EV -7.92%E -4.40%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -9.88%E -2.60%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -9.55%E -2.65%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-27 12:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.67%EV -7.92%E -4.40%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -9.88%E -2.60%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -9.55%E -2.65%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-27 12:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.67%EV -7.92%E -4.40%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -9.88%E -2.60%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -9.55%E -2.65%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-27 12:35
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.51%EV -7.92%E -4.40%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -14.62%E -4.06%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -5.78%E -1.54%K -2.10%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-16 05:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.32%EV -8.43%E -4.71%K -10.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -9.88%E -2.60%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -5.78%E -1.54%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-17 07:04
Unibet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.13%EV -8.94%E -5.02%K -11.46%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -11.06%E -2.95%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.60%EV -7.04%E -1.90%K -2.61%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-17 07:05
PlayUp🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.77%EV -9.45%E -5.34%K -12.27%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.80%EV -8.69%E -2.26%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -5.78%E -1.54%K -2.10%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-16 18:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.02%EV -10.99%E -6.31%K -14.85%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.32%EV -13.43%E -3.68%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -9.55%E -2.65%K -3.67%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-17 07:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.02%EV -10.99%E -6.31%K -14.85%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.32%EV -13.43%E -3.68%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -9.55%E -2.65%K -3.67%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-17 07:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.02%EV -10.99%E -6.31%K -14.85%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.32%EV -13.43%E -3.68%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -9.55%E -2.65%K -3.67%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-17 07:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 50.66%EV -10.99%E -6.31%K -14.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.19%EV -16.99%E -4.85%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.15%EV -8.29%E -2.27%K -3.13%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-02 11:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 50.72%EV -13.03%E -7.67%K -18.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.99%EV -18.18%E -5.27%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.29%EV -10.80%E -3.04%K -4.24%G +0.000%16.0%2026-10-02 11:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 52.15%EV -16.10%E -9.82%K -25.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.76%EV -14.62%E -4.06%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.09%EV -10.80%E -3.04%K -4.24%G +0.000%16.9%2026-10-16 06:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.72I 58.14%NM 50.07%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.60%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.33%16.1%2026-10-15 02:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 25.79%1.19I 84.03%NM 35.98%1.12I 89.29%NM 38.23%133.6%2026-10-17 06:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 25.79%1.19I 84.03%NM 35.98%1.12I 89.29%NM 38.23%133.6%2026-10-17 06:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.19I 84.03%NM 32.56%1.18I 84.75%NM 32.84%1.12I 89.29%NM 34.60%158.1%2026-10-17 06:25