The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Wellington Phoenix FC v Central Coast Mariners

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 02:00 UTC

Final: Wellington Phoenix FC 2–0 Central Coast Mariners

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

50 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Wellington Phoenix FC (Local)

Prediction 59.42%1.68fair odd
EV +2.80%
Edge +1.62%
Kelly +3.84%
Growth +0.108%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.84%59.38%59.48%60.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.591.581.7369.44%62.87%63.09%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Central Coast Mariners (Visit)

Prediction 18.27%5.47fair odd
EV +5.03%
Edge +0.876%
Kelly +1.06%
Growth +0.053%

assuming max odds 5.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.84%18.31%18.15%21.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.905.005.7523.81%20.42%20.00%17.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.31%4.48fair odd
EV -1.83%
Edge -0.417%
Kelly -0.540%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.73%22.31%22.37%24.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.084.104.4027.03%24.49%24.39%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Wellington Phoenix FC (Local): 59.42%; Central Coast Mariners (Visit): 18.27%; Draw: 22.31%. For Central Coast Mariners (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.47. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.03%.

Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.62%EV +2.80%E +1.62%K +3.84%G +0.108%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.92%EV -15.97%E -3.47%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.47%EV -8.53%E -2.08%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-25 01:35
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.04%EV -0.170%E -0.101%K -0.249%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -20.54%E -4.72%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.71%EV -12.99%E -3.33%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-25 01:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.04%EV -0.170%E -0.101%K -0.249%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -20.54%E -4.72%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.71%EV -12.99%E -3.33%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-25 01:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.04%EV -0.170%E -0.101%K -0.249%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -20.54%E -4.72%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.71%EV -12.99%E -3.33%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-25 01:35
Casumo🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.04%EV -0.170%E -0.101%K -0.249%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -20.54%E -4.72%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.71%EV -12.99%E -3.33%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-25 01:35
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.04%EV -0.170%E -0.101%K -0.249%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -20.54%E -4.72%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.71%EV -12.99%E -3.33%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-25 01:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.04%EV -0.170%E -0.101%K -0.249%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -20.54%E -4.72%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.71%EV -12.99%E -3.33%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-25 01:35
TABtouch🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.04%EV -0.170%E -0.101%K -0.249%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -20.54%E -4.72%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.71%EV -12.99%E -3.33%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-25 01:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.18%EV -0.764%E -0.457%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.19%EV -20.54%E -4.72%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.63%EV -12.99%E -3.33%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 01:35
Unibet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.89%EV -1.36%E -0.818%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.44%EV -22.37%E -5.26%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.67%EV -14.11%E -3.66%K -4.95%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-25 01:35
Coolbet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.74%EV -1.95%E -1.18%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.85%EV -12.32%E -2.57%K -3.24%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.42%EV -5.18%E -1.22%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-25 01:23
GTbets🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.98%EV -3.14%E -1.93%K -4.99%G +0.000%5.09I 19.65%NM 18.57%EV -7.02%E -1.38%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 23.45%EV -10.09%E -2.50%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-25 01:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.84%EV -3.73%E -2.31%K -6.02%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.15%EV -23.28%E -5.54%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.01%EV -17.45%E -4.72%K -6.46%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-25 01:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.84%EV -3.73%E -2.31%K -6.02%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.15%EV -23.28%E -5.54%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.01%EV -17.45%E -4.72%K -6.46%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-25 01:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.84%EV -3.73%E -2.31%K -6.02%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.15%EV -23.28%E -5.54%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.01%EV -17.45%E -4.72%K -6.46%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-25 01:35
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.32%EV -4.92%E -3.08%K -8.21%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV -4.10%E -0.781%K -0.964%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%EV -6.30%E -1.50%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-25 01:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -4.92%E -3.08%K -8.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -8.67%E -1.73%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -6.30%E -1.50%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-25 01:35
Neds🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -4.92%E -3.08%K -8.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -8.67%E -1.73%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -6.30%E -1.50%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-25 01:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -4.92%E -3.08%K -8.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -8.67%E -1.73%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -6.30%E -1.50%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-25 01:35
TAB🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.37%EV -4.92%E -3.08%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.66%EV -13.23%E -2.79%K -3.53%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.97%EV -5.18%E -1.22%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-25 01:39
LowVig.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.90%EV -5.52%E -3.47%K -9.35%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.84%EV +5.03%E +0.876%K +1.06%G +0.053%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.26%EV -2.95%E -0.678%K -0.881%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-25 01:44
BetOnline.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.90%EV -5.52%E -3.47%K -9.35%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.84%EV +5.03%E +0.876%K +1.06%G +0.053%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.26%EV -2.95%E -0.678%K -0.881%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-25 01:45
Pinnacle🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.53%EV -5.52%E -3.47%K -9.35%G +0.000%5.47I 18.28%NM 17.59%EV -0.080%E -0.015%K -0.018%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.87%EV -1.83%E -0.417%K -0.540%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-25 01:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.79%EV -5.52%E -3.47%K -9.35%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.11%EV -4.10%E -0.781%K -0.964%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.11%EV -4.07%E -0.946%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-25 01:50
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.47%EV -5.52%E -3.47%K -9.35%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.01%EV -4.10%E -0.781%K -0.964%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -6.30%E -1.50%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-25 01:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.63%EV -6.11%E -3.87%K -10.54%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -4.10%E -0.781%K -0.964%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -6.30%E -1.50%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-25 01:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.52%EV -6.11%E -3.87%K -10.54%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.09%EV -5.01%E -0.964%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -6.30%E -1.50%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-25 01:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.88%EV -6.11%E -3.87%K -10.54%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.42%EV -7.75%E -1.54%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.69%EV -8.53%E -2.08%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-25 01:35
SportsBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.59%EV -6.71%E -4.27%K -11.77%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +0.468%E +0.085%K +0.104%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12%EV -4.07%E -0.946%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-25 01:35
picklebet_au🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.27%EV -6.71%E -4.27%K -11.77%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV +0.468%E +0.085%K +0.104%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -6.30%E -1.50%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-25 01:44
Fanatics🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.09%EV -6.71%E -4.27%K -11.77%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -4.10%E -0.781%K -0.964%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.94%EV -4.07%E -0.946%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-25 01:50
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.25%EV -6.71%E -4.27%K -11.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -8.67%E -1.73%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -6.30%E -1.50%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-25 01:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -6.71%E -4.27%K -11.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -8.67%E -1.73%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -10.76%E -2.69%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-25 01:35
Bovada🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.19%EV -7.30%E -4.68%K -13.04%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.72%EV -3.19%E -0.601%K -0.741%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.09%EV -5.18%E -1.22%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 01:49
BetUS🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.19%EV -7.30%E -4.68%K -13.04%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.72%EV -3.19%E -0.601%K -0.741%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.09%EV -5.18%E -1.22%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 01:50
Bet Right🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.86%EV -7.30%E -4.68%K -13.04%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -10.49%E -2.14%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -8.53%E -2.08%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-25 01:40
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.40%EV -7.89%E -5.09%K -14.35%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.83%EV -4.10%E -0.781%K -0.964%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.77%EV -4.07%E -0.946%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-25 01:40
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.18%EV -7.89%E -5.09%K -14.35%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.72%EV -10.49%E -2.14%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.10%EV -7.41%E -1.79%K -2.35%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-25 01:40
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.18%EV -7.89%E -5.09%K -14.35%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.72%EV -10.49%E -2.14%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.10%EV -7.41%E -1.79%K -2.35%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-25 01:40
William Hill🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.91%EV -7.89%E -5.09%K -14.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -8.67%E -1.73%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -10.76%E -2.69%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-25 01:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.26%EV -8.49%E -5.51%K -15.72%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.01%EV -12.32%E -2.57%K -3.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.73%EV -6.30%E -1.50%K -1.97%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-25 01:45
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87%EV -9.08%E -5.94%K -17.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -8.67%E -1.73%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -6.30%E -1.50%K -1.97%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-25 01:35
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -9.08%E -5.94%K -17.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -8.67%E -1.73%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -10.76%E -2.69%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-25 01:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -9.08%E -5.94%K -17.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -8.67%E -1.73%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -10.76%E -2.69%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-25 01:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -9.08%E -5.94%K -17.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -8.67%E -1.73%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -10.76%E -2.69%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-25 01:55
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -9.08%E -5.94%K -17.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -8.67%E -1.73%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -10.76%E -2.69%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-25 01:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.03%EV -9.68%E -6.37%K -18.61%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.09%EV -14.15%E -3.01%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.88%EV -8.53%E -2.08%K -2.75%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-25 01:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -10.87%E -7.24%K -21.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -8.67%E -1.73%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -10.76%E -2.69%K -3.59%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-25 01:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.11%EV -10.87%E -7.24%K -21.73%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.95%EV -15.97%E -3.47%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.94%EV -15.22%E -4.01%K -5.44%G +0.000%14.7%2026-10-25 01:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.46%EV -14.43%E -10.02%K -32.80%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.77%EV -10.49%E -2.14%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.77%EV -10.76%E -2.69%K -3.59%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-25 01:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.97%5.56I 17.99%NM 18.01%4.55I 21.98%NM 22.01%-0.2%2026-10-25 01:45
Matchbook◎1.63I 61.35%NM 61.33%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.94%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.73%0.0%2026-10-25 01:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 61.03%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.86%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.11%0.5%2026-10-25 01:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 61.03%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.86%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.11%0.5%2026-10-25 01:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 61.03%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.86%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.11%0.5%2026-10-25 01:55
Smarkets◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.70%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.95%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.35%1.7%2026-10-25 01:55

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