The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Sydney FC v Central Coast Mariners

Kickoff: 2026-11-06 08:40 UTC

Final: Sydney FC 4–1 Central Coast Mariners

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

50 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney FC (Local)

Prediction 61.08%1.64fair odd
EV -4.11%
Edge -2.62%
Kelly -7.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.42%61.02%61.08%63.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.391.511.521.5771.94%66.16%65.79%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Central Coast Mariners (Visit)

Prediction 16.81%5.95fair odd
EV +5.08%
Edge +0.813%
Kelly +0.968%
Growth +0.049%

assuming max odds 6.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.25%16.84%16.79%18.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.565.556.2521.74%17.98%18.02%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.11%4.52fair odd
EV +0.601%
Edge +0.132%
Kelly +0.169%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 4.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.75%22.14%22.13%23.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.224.204.5527.40%23.72%23.81%21.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sydney FC (Local): 61.08%; Central Coast Mariners (Visit): 16.81%; Draw: 22.11%. For Central Coast Mariners (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.95. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.08%.

Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.56%EV -8.39%E -5.59%K -16.77%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.25%EV +5.08%E +0.813%K +0.968%G +0.049%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -0.505%E -0.112%K -0.144%G +0.000%4.9%2026-11-06 08:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.96%EV -4.72%E -3.03%K -8.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV +0.880%E +0.147%K +0.176%G +0.002%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -9.35%E -2.28%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-06 08:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.89%EV -4.72%E -3.03%K -8.43%G +0.000%5.85I 17.09%NM 16.51%EV -1.64%E -0.281%K -0.339%G +0.000%4.47I 22.37%NM 21.60%EV -1.17%E -0.261%K -0.337%G +0.000%3.6%2026-11-06 08:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.28%EV -5.33%E -3.44%K -9.69%G +0.000%5.85I 17.09%NM 16.50%EV -1.64%E -0.281%K -0.339%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.22%EV +0.601%E +0.132%K +0.169%G +0.001%3.6%2026-11-06 08:35
BetUS🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.28%EV -5.33%E -3.44%K -9.69%G +0.000%5.85I 17.09%NM 16.50%EV -1.64%E -0.281%K -0.339%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.22%EV +0.601%E +0.132%K +0.169%G +0.001%3.6%2026-11-06 08:35
Coolbet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.90%EV -5.94%E -3.86%K -11.00%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.44%EV -2.48%E -0.428%K -0.517%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.66%EV -2.72%E -0.617%K -0.799%G +0.000%4.9%2026-11-06 08:05
SportsBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.59%EV -5.94%E -3.86%K -11.00%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.35%EV -2.48%E -0.428%K -0.517%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.06%EV -4.93%E -1.15%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-06 08:35
Grosvenor🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.37%EV -9.61%E -6.49%K -20.01%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.91%EV -2.48%E -0.428%K -0.517%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -6.03%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-06 08:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.37%EV -9.61%E -6.49%K -20.01%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.91%EV -2.48%E -0.428%K -0.517%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -6.03%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-06 08:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.37%EV -9.61%E -6.49%K -20.01%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.91%EV -2.48%E -0.428%K -0.517%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -6.03%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-06 08:05
Casumo🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.37%EV -9.61%E -6.49%K -20.01%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.91%EV -2.48%E -0.428%K -0.517%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -6.03%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-06 08:05
TABtouch🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.37%EV -9.61%E -6.49%K -20.01%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.91%EV -2.48%E -0.428%K -0.517%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -6.03%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-06 08:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.37%EV -9.61%E -6.49%K -20.01%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.91%EV -2.48%E -0.428%K -0.517%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -6.03%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-06 08:05
betPARX🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.37%EV -9.61%E -6.49%K -20.01%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.91%EV -2.48%E -0.428%K -0.517%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -6.03%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-06 08:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.53%EV -10.22%E -6.95%K -21.74%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.85%EV -2.48%E -0.428%K -0.517%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.63%EV -6.03%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-06 08:05
Pinnacle🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.57%EV -4.11%E -2.62%K -7.21%G +0.000%5.77I 17.33%NM 16.75%EV -2.99%E -0.518%K -0.626%G +0.000%4.46I 22.42%NM 21.67%EV -1.39%E -0.312%K -0.402%G +0.000%3.4%2026-11-06 08:30
Fanatics🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.20%EV -4.72%E -3.03%K -8.43%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.60%EV -3.32%E -0.578%K -0.700%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.20%EV -4.93%E -1.15%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-06 07:55
Unibet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.28%EV -10.22%E -6.95%K -21.74%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.92%EV -3.32%E -0.578%K -0.700%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -7.14%E -1.70%K -2.23%G +0.000%9.2%2026-11-06 08:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.28%EV -10.22%E -6.95%K -21.74%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.92%EV -3.32%E -0.578%K -0.700%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -7.14%E -1.70%K -2.23%G +0.000%9.2%2026-11-06 08:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.28%EV -10.22%E -6.95%K -21.74%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.92%EV -3.32%E -0.578%K -0.700%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -7.14%E -1.70%K -2.23%G +0.000%9.2%2026-11-06 08:05
GTbets🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.77%EV -7.16%E -4.71%K -13.78%G +0.000%5.64I 17.73%NM 16.65%EV -5.17%E -0.917%K -1.11%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.58%EV -3.82%E -0.878%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-06 08:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.28%EV -4.72%E -3.03%K -8.43%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -5.85%E -1.04%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -9.35%E -2.28%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-06 08:00
Bovada🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.70%EV -7.16%E -4.71%K -13.78%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.75%EV -5.85%E -1.04%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.56%EV -3.82%E -0.878%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.6%2026-11-06 08:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%EV -7.16%E -4.71%K -13.78%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.62%EV -5.85%E -1.04%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.16%EV -7.14%E -1.70%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-06 07:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.34%EV -12.66%E -8.85%K -29.44%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.92%EV -5.85%E -1.04%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.74%EV -9.35%E -2.28%K -3.02%G +0.000%12.2%2026-11-06 08:05
DraftKings🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.74%EV -4.72%E -3.03%K -8.43%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.23%EV -7.53%E -1.37%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.04%EV -4.93%E -1.15%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-06 08:00
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.27%EV -4.11%E -2.62%K -7.21%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -7.53%E -1.37%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -7.14%E -1.70%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.7%2026-11-06 07:54
TAB🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.73%EV -5.33%E -3.44%K -9.69%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -7.53%E -1.37%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.15%EV -6.03%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-06 07:54
picklebet_au🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.57%EV -5.33%E -3.44%K -9.69%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.07%EV -7.53%E -1.37%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -7.14%E -1.70%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-06 08:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.89%EV -5.94%E -3.86%K -11.00%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -7.53%E -1.37%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.06%EV -6.03%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.6%2026-11-06 08:00
PlayUp🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.51%EV -7.16%E -4.71%K -13.78%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV -7.53%E -1.37%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.49%EV -3.82%E -0.878%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-06 08:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -6.55%E -4.28%K -12.36%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -7.53%E -1.37%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -11.56%E -2.89%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-06 08:05
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -8.39%E -5.59%K -16.77%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -7.53%E -1.37%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -7.14%E -1.70%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-06 07:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -8.39%E -5.59%K -16.77%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -7.53%E -1.37%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -7.14%E -1.70%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-06 08:35
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -8.39%E -5.59%K -16.77%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -7.53%E -1.37%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -11.56%E -2.89%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.8%2026-11-06 08:35
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -8.39%E -5.59%K -16.77%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -7.53%E -1.37%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -11.56%E -2.89%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.8%2026-11-06 08:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -8.39%E -5.59%K -16.77%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -7.53%E -1.37%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -11.56%E -2.89%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.8%2026-11-06 08:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -8.39%E -5.59%K -16.77%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -7.53%E -1.37%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -11.56%E -2.89%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.8%2026-11-06 08:35
NordicBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.69%EV -7.16%E -4.71%K -13.78%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.08%EV -9.21%E -1.71%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.23%EV -8.24%E -1.99%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-06 07:54
Betsson🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.69%EV -7.16%E -4.71%K -13.78%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.08%EV -9.21%E -1.71%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.23%EV -8.24%E -1.99%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-06 07:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.78%EV -4.11%E -2.62%K -7.21%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.88%EV -11.73%E -2.23%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -7.14%E -1.70%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-11-06 07:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.78%EV -4.11%E -2.62%K -7.21%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.88%EV -11.73%E -2.23%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -7.14%E -1.70%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-11-06 07:55
Neds🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.78%EV -4.11%E -2.62%K -7.21%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.88%EV -11.73%E -2.23%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -7.14%E -1.70%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-11-06 07:55
BetMGM🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.24%EV -5.94%E -3.86%K -11.00%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.67%EV -11.73%E -2.23%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.09%EV -7.14%E -1.70%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-06 07:55
Bet Right🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.55%EV -7.16%E -4.71%K -13.78%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.53%EV -11.73%E -2.23%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -7.14%E -1.70%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-06 08:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.69%EV -9.61%E -6.49%K -20.01%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.56%EV -12.57%E -2.42%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -2.72%E -0.617%K -0.799%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-06 08:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 61.08%EV -13.27%E -9.35%K -31.60%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.68%EV -12.57%E -2.42%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.24%EV -13.77%E -3.53%K -4.75%G +0.000%15.3%2026-11-06 08:20
betfred_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -8.39%E -5.59%K -16.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -15.93%E -3.19%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -7.14%E -1.70%K -2.23%G +0.000%10.5%2026-11-06 08:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 60.95%EV -12.66%E -8.85%K -29.44%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.79%EV -17.61%E -3.59%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.26%EV -9.35%E -2.28%K -3.02%G +0.000%14.7%2026-11-06 08:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 59.42%EV -15.10%E -10.87%K -38.73%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 17.95%EV -22.66%E -4.93%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 22.63%EV -19.30%E -5.29%K -7.28%G +0.000%21.1%2026-11-06 07:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.60I 62.50%NM 62.27%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.07%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.66%0.4%2026-11-06 08:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.60I 62.50%NM 62.27%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.07%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.66%0.4%2026-11-06 08:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.42%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.01%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.57%0.8%2026-11-06 08:35
Kalshi◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.35%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.86%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.79%0.9%2026-11-06 08:20
Smarkets◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.27%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.87%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.86%1.6%2026-11-06 08:35
Matchbook◎1.57I 63.69%NM 62.42%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.81%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.78%2.0%2026-11-06 08:35

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