Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney FC v Auckland FC

Kickoff: 2026-04-26 05:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

51 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney FC (Local)

Prediction 37.32%2.68fair odd
EV -2.97%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -1.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.17%37.33%37.34%38.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.502.502.6044.44%40.05%40.00%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Auckland FC (Visit)

Prediction 35.81%2.79fair odd
EV -4.40%
Edge -1.65%
Kelly -2.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.68%35.78%35.79%36.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.572.582.6742.55%38.95%38.76%37.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.88%3.72fair odd
EV -0.561%
Edge -0.152%
Kelly -0.208%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.69%26.89%26.87%28.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.443.453.7033.33%29.04%28.99%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sydney FC (Local): 37.32%; Auckland FC (Visit): 35.81%; Draw: 26.88%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.72. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.70, with an expected value of -0.561%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -2.97%E -1.14%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -8.70%E -3.41%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 08:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -2.97%E -1.14%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -8.70%E -3.41%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 08:19
LeoVegas🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -2.97%E -1.14%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -8.70%E -3.41%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 08:19
TAB🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -2.97%E -1.14%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -6.91%E -2.66%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.62%E -2.54%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 00:24
Pinnacle🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 37.06%EV -4.09%E -1.59%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.81%EV -4.76%E -1.79%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.13%EV -5.67%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-20 17:30
LowVig.ag🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 37.06%EV -4.09%E -1.59%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.81%EV -4.76%E -1.79%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.13%EV -5.67%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-20 23:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 37.06%EV -4.09%E -1.59%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.81%EV -4.76%E -1.79%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.13%EV -5.67%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-20 22:59
Coolbet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.84%E -1.90%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.47%EV -6.91%E -2.66%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.34%EV -3.25%E -0.902%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-23 11:39
betPARX🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -4.84%E -1.90%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -8.70%E -3.41%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.28%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 08:59
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -4.84%E -1.90%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -8.70%E -3.41%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.28%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 09:00
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -4.84%E -1.90%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -8.70%E -3.41%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.28%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 08:59
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -4.84%E -1.90%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -8.70%E -3.41%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.28%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 09:00
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -4.84%E -1.90%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -8.70%E -3.41%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.28%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 08:59
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -4.84%E -1.90%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -8.70%E -3.41%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.28%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 08:59
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -4.84%E -1.90%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -8.70%E -3.41%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.28%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 09:00
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -4.84%E -1.90%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -8.70%E -3.41%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.28%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 08:59
Bovada🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.01%EV -5.21%E -2.05%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.74%EV -5.83%E -2.22%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -7.28%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-20 17:43
BetUS🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.01%EV -5.21%E -2.05%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.74%EV -5.83%E -2.22%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -7.28%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-22 21:25
GTbets🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.54%EV -5.96%E -2.36%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.43%EV -4.40%E -1.65%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.03%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-22 14:29
Marathon Bet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.00%EV -5.96%E -2.36%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 35.73%EV -6.55%E -2.51%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.27%EV -8.09%E -2.36%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-24 03:39
NordicBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.94%EV -5.96%E -2.36%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.08%EV -7.62%E -2.95%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.28%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-20 17:30
Betsson🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.94%EV -5.96%E -2.36%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.08%EV -7.62%E -2.95%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.28%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-20 17:29
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.02%EV -6.70%E -2.68%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.28%EV -6.19%E -2.36%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -0.561%E -0.152%K -0.208%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-20 17:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.77%EV -6.70%E -2.68%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.63%EV -5.11%E -1.93%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -4.59%E -1.29%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-23 17:04
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.76%EV -6.70%E -2.68%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.03%EV -6.19%E -2.36%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.22%EV -3.25%E -0.902%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-20 17:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -6.70%E -2.68%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.91%E -2.66%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -3.25%E -0.902%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 14:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -6.70%E -2.68%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.91%E -2.66%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -3.25%E -0.902%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 14:54
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -6.70%E -2.68%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.91%E -2.66%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -3.25%E -0.902%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 14:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.63%EV -6.70%E -2.68%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.50%EV -5.11%E -1.93%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 11:09
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.63%EV -6.70%E -2.68%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.50%EV -5.11%E -1.93%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 11:09
DraftKings🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -6.70%E -2.68%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.91%E -2.66%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 05:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -6.70%E -2.68%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.91%E -2.66%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 05:10
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -6.70%E -2.68%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -6.91%E -2.66%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -8.62%E -2.54%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-20 17:30
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -6.70%E -2.68%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -10.49%E -4.19%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 11:44
Bet Right🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -6.70%E -2.68%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -10.49%E -4.19%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 11:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -6.70%E -2.68%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -10.49%E -4.19%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 11:39
Everygame🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.67%EV -6.70%E -2.68%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -8.70%E -3.41%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -9.97%E -2.98%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-20 17:34
LiveScore Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.33%EV -7.45%E -3.00%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.77%EV -12.28%E -5.01%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.90%EV -9.97%E -2.98%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-23 09:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.33%EV -7.45%E -3.00%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.77%EV -12.28%E -5.01%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.90%EV -9.97%E -2.98%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-23 08:59
Paddy Power🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -8.57%E -3.50%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.91%E -2.66%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -3.25%E -0.902%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-20 17:45
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -8.57%E -3.50%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.11%EV -8.70%E -3.41%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 14:54
888sport🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -8.57%E -3.50%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -6.19%E -2.36%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -11.31%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-20 17:44
William Hill🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -8.57%E -3.50%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -6.19%E -2.36%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -11.31%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-20 17:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -8.57%E -3.50%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -6.19%E -2.36%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -11.31%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-20 17:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -8.57%E -3.50%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -6.19%E -2.36%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -11.31%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-20 17:44
PMU (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.52%EV -10.43%E -4.35%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.52%EV -14.07%E -5.86%K -10.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.97%EV -12.66%E -3.89%K -5.62%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-23 09:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 36.43%EV -11.18%E -4.70%K -8.10%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.68%EV -10.49%E -4.19%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.90%EV -19.37%E -6.46%K -9.69%G +0.000%15.4%2026-04-23 11:14
NetBet (FR)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 37.43%EV -13.42%E -5.78%K -10.17%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.44%EV -12.28%E -5.01%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.13%EV -14.00%E -4.37%K -6.36%G +0.000%15.2%2026-04-23 09:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.24%EV -14.17%E -6.16%K -10.90%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.90%EV -12.28%E -5.01%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.87%EV -8.62%E -2.54%K -3.59%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-22 14:24
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.21%EV -14.17%E -6.16%K -10.90%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.16%EV -10.49%E -4.19%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.63%EV -11.31%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-22 14:39
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 37.74%EV -16.03%E -7.13%K -12.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.13%EV -15.86%E -6.75%K -11.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.13%EV -12.66%E -3.89%K -5.62%G +0.000%17.8%2026-04-22 14:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.58I 38.76%NM 37.46%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.06%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.48%3.5%2026-04-23 13:44
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.58I 38.76%NM 37.46%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.06%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.48%3.5%2026-04-23 16:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.58I 38.76%NM 37.46%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.06%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.48%3.5%2026-04-23 13:45
Kalshi2.50I 40.00%NM 38.44%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.59%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.97%4.1%2026-04-24 00:39
Smarkets2.56I 39.06%NM 37.30%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.17%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%4.7%2026-04-24 03:50
Matchbook2.46I 40.65%NM 36.57%2.46I 40.65%NM 36.57%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.86%11.2%2026-04-23 16:34