The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Sydney FC v Adelaide United

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 04:00 UTC

Final: Sydney FC 2–1 Adelaide United

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

50 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney FC (Local)

Prediction 41.99%2.38fair odd
EV -2.16%
Edge -0.928%
Kelly -1.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.19%41.98%42.04%44.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.172.202.3350.76%45.99%45.45%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Adelaide United (Visit)

Prediction 31.52%3.17fair odd
EV +5.60%
Edge +1.67%
Kelly +2.38%
Growth +0.133%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.87%31.53%31.43%33.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.993.003.3535.71%33.40%33.33%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.49%3.78fair odd
EV -1.99%
Edge -0.539%
Kelly -0.738%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.24%26.49%26.52%27.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.513.503.7030.30%28.51%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sydney FC (Local): 41.99%; Adelaide United (Visit): 31.52%; Draw: 26.49%. For Adelaide United (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.17. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.60%.

Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.99%EV -9.72%E -4.52%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV +5.60%E +1.67%K +2.38%G +0.133%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.14%EV -1.99%E -0.539%K -0.738%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-25 03:15
betPARX🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.35%EV -12.66%E -6.09%K -11.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.29%EV -0.707%E -0.225%K -0.329%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.36%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-25 03:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.35%EV -12.66%E -6.09%K -11.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.29%EV -0.707%E -0.225%K -0.329%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.36%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-25 03:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.35%EV -12.66%E -6.09%K -11.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.29%EV -0.707%E -0.225%K -0.329%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.36%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-25 03:15
Casumo🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.35%EV -12.66%E -6.09%K -11.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.29%EV -0.707%E -0.225%K -0.329%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.36%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-25 03:15
Grosvenor🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.35%EV -12.66%E -6.09%K -11.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.29%EV -0.707%E -0.225%K -0.329%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.36%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-25 03:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.35%EV -12.66%E -6.09%K -11.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.29%EV -0.707%E -0.225%K -0.329%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.36%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-25 03:15
TABtouch🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.35%EV -12.66%E -6.09%K -11.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.29%EV -0.707%E -0.225%K -0.329%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.36%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-25 03:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.47%EV -13.08%E -6.32%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.22%EV -0.707%E -0.225%K -0.329%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.30%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-25 03:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.22%EV -5.52%E -2.45%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.64%EV -2.28%E -0.737%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-25 03:50
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -7.62%E -3.46%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -2.28%E -0.737%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -4.64%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-25 03:55
Unibet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.34%EV -13.92%E -6.79%K -13.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -2.28%E -0.737%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -8.61%E -2.50%K -3.52%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-25 03:15
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.48%EV -5.52%E -2.45%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.34%EV -3.86%E -1.27%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.19%EV -3.32%E -0.909%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-24 11:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.39%EV -16.02%E -8.01%K -16.02%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.11%EV -3.86%E -1.27%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.50%EV -11.26%E -3.36%K -4.79%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-25 03:15
PMU (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.39%EV -16.02%E -8.01%K -16.02%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.11%EV -3.86%E -1.27%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.50%EV -11.26%E -3.36%K -4.79%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-25 03:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.39%EV -16.02%E -8.01%K -16.02%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.11%EV -3.86%E -1.27%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.50%EV -11.26%E -3.36%K -4.79%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-25 03:15
Pinnacle🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.55%EV -2.16%E -0.928%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.85%EV -4.17%E -1.37%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.60%EV -3.58%E -0.984%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-25 03:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.46%EV -2.16%E -0.928%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.78%EV -4.17%E -1.37%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.76%EV -4.38%E -1.21%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-25 03:35
BetOnline.ag🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.46%EV -2.16%E -0.928%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.78%EV -4.17%E -1.37%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.76%EV -4.38%E -1.21%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-25 03:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.89%EV -8.88%E -4.09%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.82%EV -4.81%E -1.59%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.29%EV -6.23%E -1.76%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-19 10:10
GTbets🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.38%EV -9.72%E -4.52%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 30.99%EV -5.12%E -1.70%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.63%EV -3.58%E -0.984%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-19 11:40
picklebet_au🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -5.52%E -2.45%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -5.44%E -1.81%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -4.64%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-25 03:35
Codere (IT)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.32%EV -6.36%E -2.85%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -5.44%E -1.81%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.22%EV -4.64%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-25 03:40
TAB🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.52%E -2.45%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.44%E -1.81%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-25 03:54
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.52%E -2.45%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.44%E -1.81%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-25 03:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -7.62%E -3.46%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.44%E -1.81%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -4.64%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-25 03:35
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -7.62%E -3.46%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -5.44%E -1.81%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -5.97%E -1.68%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-25 03:55
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -9.72%E -4.52%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -5.44%E -1.81%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-25 03:55
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.19%EV -3.42%E -1.49%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.12%EV -7.01%E -2.38%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.69%EV -5.97%E -1.68%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-25 03:35
Bovada🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.36%EV -4.68%E -2.06%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.82%EV -7.01%E -2.38%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 03:40
BetUS🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.36%EV -4.68%E -2.06%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.82%EV -7.01%E -2.38%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 03:45
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.74%EV -6.78%E -3.05%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -7.01%E -2.38%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -8.61%E -2.50%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-25 03:55
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -5.52%E -2.45%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -8.59%E -2.96%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -4.64%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-23 08:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -5.52%E -2.45%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -8.59%E -2.96%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -4.64%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-23 08:25
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.51%EV -6.78%E -3.05%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -8.59%E -2.96%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -8.61%E -2.50%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 03:40
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -7.62%E -3.46%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -8.59%E -2.96%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -12.59%E -3.81%K -5.47%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-25 03:35
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -7.62%E -3.46%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -8.59%E -2.96%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -12.59%E -3.81%K -5.47%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-25 03:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -7.62%E -3.46%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -8.59%E -2.96%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -12.59%E -3.81%K -5.47%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-25 03:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -7.62%E -3.46%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -8.59%E -2.96%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -12.59%E -3.81%K -5.47%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-25 03:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -9.72%E -4.52%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -8.59%E -2.96%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -9.94%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-25 03:55
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -9.72%E -4.52%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.62%EV -9.22%E -3.20%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-25 03:35
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.27%EV -3.42%E -1.49%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.07%EV -9.53%E -3.32%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.65%EV -1.99%E -0.539%K -0.738%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-25 03:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.51%EV -5.52%E -2.45%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.54%EV -9.53%E -3.32%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -4.64%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-25 03:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.75%EV -7.62%E -3.46%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.00%EV -9.53%E -3.32%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-25 03:35
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.42%EV -5.52%E -2.45%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -10.16%E -3.57%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -4.64%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-25 03:40
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.81%EV -7.62%E -3.46%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.28%EV -10.16%E -3.57%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -5.97%E -1.68%K -2.34%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-25 03:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.52%EV -9.72%E -4.52%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -10.16%E -3.57%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -4.64%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-25 03:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 44.20%EV -17.28%E -8.77%K -17.81%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.55%EV -10.16%E -3.57%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.24%EV -8.61%E -2.50%K -3.52%G +0.000%14.8%2026-10-25 03:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -11.82%E -5.63%K -10.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -11.74%E -4.19%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-25 03:35
NetBet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.49%EV -13.92%E -6.79%K -13.26%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.11%EV -11.74%E -4.19%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.40%EV -12.59%E -3.81%K -5.47%G +0.000%14.8%2026-10-25 03:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.50%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.05%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.45%0.8%2026-10-25 03:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 43.08%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.43%0.9%2026-10-25 03:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 43.08%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.43%0.9%2026-10-25 03:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 42.88%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.82%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.30%1.4%2026-10-25 03:55
Kalshi◎2.33I 42.92%NM 42.08%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.42%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.50%2.0%2026-10-25 03:35
Smarkets◎2.30I 43.48%NM 42.52%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.05%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.43%2.3%2026-10-25 03:55

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.