The School of Odds
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Perth Glory v Newcastle Jets FC

Kickoff: 2026-11-07 10:45 UTC

Final: Perth Glory 2–1 Newcastle Jets FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Perth Glory (Local)

Prediction 38.36%2.61fair odd
EV -2.18%
Edge -0.856%
Kelly -1.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.31%38.38%38.43%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.392.402.5547.62%41.92%41.67%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Newcastle Jets FC (Visit)

Prediction 37.60%2.66fair odd
EV +3.40%
Edge +1.24%
Kelly +1.94%
Growth +0.066%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.05%37.43%37.62%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.522.502.7544.44%39.62%40.00%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.04%4.16fair odd
EV -1.20%
Edge -0.292%
Kelly -0.386%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.11%24.19%23.96%25.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.793.754.1128.99%26.41%26.67%24.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Perth Glory (Local): 38.36%; Newcastle Jets FC (Visit): 37.60%; Draw: 24.04%. For Newcastle Jets FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.66. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.40%.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.32%EV -7.94%E -3.31%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.19%EV +3.40%E +1.24%K +1.94%G +0.066%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.50%EV -5.05%E -1.28%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.3%2026-11-07 10:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.20%EV -11.77%E -5.12%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.15%EV -1.11%E -0.422%K -0.681%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -9.85%E -2.63%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-07 10:00
Grosvenor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.20%EV -11.77%E -5.12%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.15%EV -1.11%E -0.422%K -0.681%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -9.85%E -2.63%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-07 10:00
Casumo🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.20%EV -11.77%E -5.12%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.15%EV -1.11%E -0.422%K -0.681%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -9.85%E -2.63%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-07 10:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.20%EV -11.77%E -5.12%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.15%EV -1.11%E -0.422%K -0.681%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -9.85%E -2.63%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-07 10:00
TABtouch🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.20%EV -11.77%E -5.12%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.15%EV -1.11%E -0.422%K -0.681%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -9.85%E -2.63%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-07 10:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.20%EV -11.77%E -5.12%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.15%EV -1.11%E -0.422%K -0.681%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -9.85%E -2.63%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-07 10:00
betPARX🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.20%EV -11.77%E -5.12%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.15%EV -1.11%E -0.422%K -0.681%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -9.85%E -2.63%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-07 10:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.63%EV -7.94%E -3.31%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.24%E -0.861%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -3.84%E -0.961%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-07 10:40
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -7.94%E -3.31%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.13%EV -2.24%E -0.861%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -8.65%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-07 10:20
Coral🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -7.94%E -3.31%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.13%EV -2.24%E -0.861%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -8.65%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-07 10:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -7.94%E -3.31%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.13%EV -2.24%E -0.861%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -8.65%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-07 10:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -7.94%E -3.31%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.13%EV -2.24%E -0.861%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -8.65%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-07 10:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%EV -11.77%E -5.12%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.30%EV -2.24%E -0.861%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -11.06%E -2.99%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-07 10:00
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.97%EV -12.54%E -5.50%K -9.80%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.05%EV -2.24%E -0.861%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.97%EV -12.26%E -3.36%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.7%2026-11-07 10:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.97%EV -12.54%E -5.50%K -9.80%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.05%EV -2.24%E -0.861%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.97%EV -12.26%E -3.36%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.7%2026-11-07 10:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.97%EV -12.54%E -5.50%K -9.80%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.05%EV -2.24%E -0.861%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.97%EV -12.26%E -3.36%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.7%2026-11-07 10:00
GTbets🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.25%EV -7.94%E -3.31%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 36.66%EV -3.37%E -1.31%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.09%EV -6.01%E -1.54%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-07 10:25
Pinnacle🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 38.44%EV -3.33%E -1.32%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.99%EV -4.12%E -1.61%K -2.66%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.57%EV -1.20%E -0.292%K -0.386%G +0.000%3.2%2026-11-07 10:25
BetOnline.ag🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.87%EV -2.18%E -0.856%K -1.41%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.87%EV -4.12%E -1.61%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.26%EV -4.32%E -1.09%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.6%2026-11-07 10:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.87%EV -2.18%E -0.856%K -1.41%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.87%EV -4.12%E -1.61%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.26%EV -4.32%E -1.09%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.6%2026-11-07 10:25
Coolbet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.86%EV -6.02%E -2.46%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.34%EV -4.12%E -1.61%K -2.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80%EV -3.84%E -0.961%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-07 10:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.57%EV -9.85%E -4.19%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.47%EV -4.12%E -1.61%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 23.97%EV -6.73%E -1.73%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-07 10:20
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.74%EV -7.94%E -3.31%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.46%EV -4.12%E -1.61%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.79%EV -9.85%E -2.63%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-07 10:20
DraftKings🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.98%EV -4.10%E -1.64%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.98%EV -6.00%E -2.40%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -5.05%E -1.28%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-07 10:30
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.86%EV -4.10%E -1.64%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.86%EV -6.00%E -2.40%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -6.25%E -1.60%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-07 10:25
Fanatics🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.57%EV -6.02%E -2.46%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.80%EV -6.00%E -2.40%K -4.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -3.84%E -0.961%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-07 10:30
picklebet_au🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.46%EV -6.02%E -2.46%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.69%EV -6.00%E -2.40%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.85%EV -5.05%E -1.28%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.1%2026-11-07 10:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.93%EV -4.87%E -1.96%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.63%EV -6.00%E -2.40%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%EV -7.45%E -1.94%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-07 10:35
TAB🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.62%EV -4.10%E -1.64%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.62%EV -6.00%E -2.40%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -8.65%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-07 10:34
Bet Right🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.21%EV -9.85%E -4.19%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.86%EV -6.00%E -2.40%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.93%EV -7.45%E -1.94%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-07 10:30
Betr (AU)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 38.76%EV -9.09%E -3.83%K -6.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.74%EV -6.00%E -2.40%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -9.85%E -2.63%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-07 10:30
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -11.77%E -5.12%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.32%EV -6.00%E -2.40%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -9.85%E -2.63%K -3.58%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-07 08:10
PMU (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.68%EV -14.46%E -6.48%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.39%EV -6.00%E -2.40%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.93%EV -14.66%E -4.13%K -5.75%G +0.000%13.0%2026-11-07 10:00
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -6.02%E -2.46%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.78%EV -6.37%E -2.56%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -5.05%E -1.28%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-07 10:40
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -4.10%E -1.64%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -7.88%E -3.22%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.56%EV -8.65%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-07 10:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -6.02%E -2.46%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -7.88%E -3.22%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -6.25%E -1.60%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-07 10:30
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.93%EV -6.02%E -2.46%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.93%EV -7.88%E -3.22%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.14%EV -7.45%E -1.94%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-07 10:35
888sport🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -6.02%E -2.46%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -7.88%E -3.22%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -13.46%E -3.74%K -5.18%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-07 10:40
William Hill🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -6.02%E -2.46%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -7.88%E -3.22%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -13.46%E -3.74%K -5.18%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-07 10:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -6.02%E -2.46%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -7.88%E -3.22%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -13.46%E -3.74%K -5.18%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-07 10:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -6.02%E -2.46%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -7.88%E -3.22%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -13.46%E -3.74%K -5.18%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-07 10:40
Betsson🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -6.02%E -2.46%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -7.88%E -3.22%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -13.46%E -3.74%K -5.18%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-07 10:35
NordicBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -6.02%E -2.46%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -7.88%E -3.22%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -13.46%E -3.74%K -5.18%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-07 10:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.39%EV -6.02%E -2.46%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.17%EV -9.76%E -4.07%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -9.85%E -2.63%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-07 10:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.85%EV -9.85%E -4.19%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -9.76%E -4.07%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.11%EV -5.05%E -1.28%K -1.71%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-07 10:30
NetBet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.38%EV -15.61%E -7.09%K -13.01%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 36.55%EV -10.89%E -4.59%K -7.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.07%EV -13.46%E -3.74%K -5.18%G +0.000%15.4%2026-11-07 10:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.66%EV -13.69%E -6.08%K -10.95%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.82%EV -13.52%E -5.88%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.51%EV -11.06%E -2.99%K -4.09%G +0.000%14.9%2026-11-07 10:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 39.34%EV -19.44%E -9.26%K -17.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 36.72%EV -15.40%E -6.84%K -12.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 23.95%EV -17.07%E -4.95%K -6.97%G +0.000%21.0%2026-11-07 10:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.60%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.18%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21%0.7%2026-11-07 10:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.49%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.37%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.14%1.0%2026-11-07 10:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.49%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.37%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.14%1.0%2026-11-07 10:35
Matchbook◎2.62I 38.17%NM 37.56%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.44%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.00%1.6%2026-11-07 10:25
Smarkets◎2.62I 38.17%NM 37.45%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.03%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53%1.9%2026-11-07 10:30
Kalshi◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.26%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.25%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%2.1%2026-11-07 10:40

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