The School of Odds
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Perth Glory v Adelaide United

Kickoff: 2026-11-01 08:00 UTC

Final: Perth Glory 4–0 Adelaide United

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Perth Glory (Local)

Prediction 41.05%2.44fair odd
EV +0.584%
Edge +0.238%
Kelly +0.403%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.25%41.01%41.12%42.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.282.302.4550.76%43.84%43.48%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Adelaide United (Visit)

Prediction 33.28%3.00fair odd
EV -2.82%
Edge -0.967%
Kelly -1.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.32%33.33%33.21%34.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.762.752.9239.22%36.25%36.36%34.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.67%3.90fair odd
EV -0.930%
Edge -0.241%
Kelly -0.325%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.68%25.66%25.68%26.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.593.603.8629.85%27.84%27.78%25.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Perth Glory (Local): 41.05%; Adelaide United (Visit): 33.28%; Draw: 25.67%. For Perth Glory (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.44. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.584%.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.41%EV +0.584%E +0.238%K +0.403%G +0.002%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.49%EV -6.82%E -2.43%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.10%EV -5.04%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.6%2026-11-01 07:30
GTbets🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.50%EV -2.29%E -0.962%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.31%EV -8.81%E -3.22%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.19%EV -7.86%E -2.19%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-01 07:15
Codere (IT)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.27%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.80%EV -6.82%E -2.43%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.93%EV -6.32%E -1.73%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.7%2026-11-01 07:15
Grosvenor🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.34%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -10.15%E -3.76%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -10.17%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-01 07:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.34%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -10.15%E -3.76%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -10.17%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-01 07:25
Casumo🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.34%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -10.15%E -3.76%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -10.17%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-01 07:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.34%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -10.15%E -3.76%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -10.17%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-01 07:25
TABtouch🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.34%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -10.15%E -3.76%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -10.17%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-01 07:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.34%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -10.15%E -3.76%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -10.17%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-01 07:25
betPARX🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.34%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -10.15%E -3.76%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -10.17%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-01 07:25
Pinnacle🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 41.49%EV -3.93%E -1.68%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.36%EV -3.16%E -1.08%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 25.15%EV -0.930%E -0.241%K -0.325%G +0.000%3.0%2026-11-01 07:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.45%EV -4.34%E -1.86%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.07%EV -2.82%E -0.967%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.48%EV -2.73%E -0.719%K -0.977%G +0.000%3.6%2026-11-01 07:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.45%EV -4.34%E -1.86%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.07%EV -2.82%E -0.967%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.48%EV -2.73%E -0.719%K -0.977%G +0.000%3.6%2026-11-01 07:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.29%EV -4.34%E -1.86%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.55%EV -11.81%E -4.46%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.16%EV -10.17%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.2%2026-11-01 07:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.25%EV -4.75%E -2.05%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.36%EV -11.81%E -4.46%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.39%EV -11.45%E -3.32%K -4.67%G +0.000%9.8%2026-11-01 07:25
Unibet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.25%EV -4.75%E -2.05%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.36%EV -11.81%E -4.46%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.39%EV -11.45%E -3.32%K -4.67%G +0.000%9.8%2026-11-01 07:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.25%EV -4.75%E -2.05%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.36%EV -11.81%E -4.46%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.39%EV -11.45%E -3.32%K -4.67%G +0.000%9.8%2026-11-01 07:25
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.34%EV -5.57%E -2.42%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -6.82%E -2.43%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -1.19%E -0.308%K -0.416%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-01 07:55
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.32%EV -5.57%E -2.42%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.34%EV -5.15%E -1.81%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -3.75%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-01 07:55
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.27%EV -5.57%E -2.42%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.07%EV -4.49%E -1.56%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.65%EV -5.04%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-01 07:55
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.57%E -2.42%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.23%EV -5.15%E -1.81%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -5.04%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-01 07:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.12%EV -5.57%E -2.42%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -3.49%E -1.20%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -7.60%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.7%2026-11-01 07:55
picklebet_au🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.07%EV -5.57%E -2.42%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.74%EV -6.82%E -2.43%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -3.75%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-01 07:55
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -5.57%E -2.42%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -5.15%E -1.81%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.60%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-01 07:39
TAB🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.57%E -2.42%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.82%E -2.43%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -7.60%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-01 07:10
PlayUp🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.00%EV -6.40%E -2.80%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.82%E -2.43%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.61%EV -6.32%E -1.73%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-01 07:54
Bovada🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.25%EV -6.81%E -3.00%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -6.82%E -2.43%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.31%EV -5.04%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-01 07:53
Marathon Bet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.16%EV -7.22%E -3.19%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -8.48%E -3.08%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.01%EV -4.52%E -1.22%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-01 07:50
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -7.63%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -3.49%E -1.20%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -7.60%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-01 07:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -7.63%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -3.49%E -1.20%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -7.60%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-01 07:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.51%EV -7.63%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.54%EV -4.49%E -1.56%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.60%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-01 07:55
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -7.63%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -6.82%E -2.43%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -5.04%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-01 07:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -7.63%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -6.82%E -2.43%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -5.04%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-01 07:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -7.63%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -8.48%E -3.08%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.81%EV -3.75%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-01 07:25
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -7.63%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -6.82%E -2.43%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -7.60%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.9%2026-11-01 07:55
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.82%EV -7.63%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.02%EV -10.15%E -3.76%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.16%EV -6.32%E -1.73%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-01 07:55
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.72%EV -7.63%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.72%EV -6.82%E -2.43%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.56%EV -11.45%E -3.32%K -4.67%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-01 07:55
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.72%EV -7.63%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.72%EV -6.82%E -2.43%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.56%EV -11.45%E -3.32%K -4.67%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-01 07:45
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -7.63%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -8.48%E -3.08%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.17%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-01 07:50
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -7.63%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -8.48%E -3.08%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.17%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-01 07:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -7.63%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -8.48%E -3.08%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.17%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-01 07:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -7.63%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -8.48%E -3.08%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.17%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-01 07:50
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.26%EV -7.63%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.58%EV -12.81%E -4.89%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -7.60%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%10.4%2026-11-01 07:25
PMU (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.42%EV -7.63%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.11%EV -13.47%E -5.18%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.47%EV -14.02%E -4.18%K -5.97%G +0.000%12.8%2026-11-01 07:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.50%EV -9.68%E -4.40%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.82%EV -10.15%E -3.76%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.68%EV -5.04%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-01 07:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -9.68%E -4.40%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -8.48%E -3.08%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -7.60%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.6%2026-11-01 07:54
NetBet (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 40.28%EV -10.91%E -5.03%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 34.01%EV -14.47%E -5.63%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.71%EV -12.74%E -3.75%K -5.31%G +0.000%14.4%2026-11-01 07:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.26%EV -13.78%E -6.56%K -12.53%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.98%EV -15.14%E -5.94%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.76%EV -10.17%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%15.4%2026-11-01 07:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 42.79%EV -19.12%E -9.71%K -19.71%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.42%EV -13.47%E -5.18%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.79%EV -12.74%E -3.75%K -5.31%G +0.000%18.6%2026-11-01 07:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 41.48%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.89%0.5%2026-11-01 07:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 41.48%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.89%0.5%2026-11-01 07:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 41.48%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.89%0.5%2026-11-01 07:55
Matchbook◎2.40I 41.67%NM 41.48%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.89%0.5%2026-11-01 07:55
Kalshi◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.60%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.64%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77%0.9%2026-11-01 07:55
Smarkets◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.42%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.30%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.28%1.4%2026-11-01 07:55

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