The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Newcastle Jets FC v Wellington Phoenix FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-31 04:00 UTC

Final: Newcastle Jets FC 0–3 Wellington Phoenix FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

50 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Newcastle Jets FC (Local)

Prediction 35.43%2.82fair odd
EV -0.094%
Edge -0.033%
Kelly -0.052%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.09%35.35%35.47%38.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.332.582.622.8242.92%38.75%38.17%35.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Wellington Phoenix FC (Visit)

Prediction 39.41%2.54fair odd
EV +3.66%
Edge +1.39%
Kelly +2.24%
Growth +0.082%

assuming max odds 2.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.71%39.39%39.42%41.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.412.402.6347.62%41.50%41.67%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.16%3.97fair odd
EV -1.63%
Edge -0.417%
Kelly -0.561%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.49%25.26%25.11%26.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.653.673.9129.41%27.43%27.21%25.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Newcastle Jets FC (Local): 35.43%; Wellington Phoenix FC (Visit): 39.41%; Draw: 25.16%. For Wellington Phoenix FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.54. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.63, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.66%.

Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.27%EV -12.14%E -4.89%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.08%EV +3.66%E +1.39%K +2.24%G +0.082%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.65%EV -6.91%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-31 03:49
Unibet (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.92%EV -13.91%E -5.72%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.13%EV +0.506%E +0.198%K +0.326%G +0.002%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.95%EV -10.69%E -3.01%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-31 03:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.92%EV -13.91%E -5.72%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.13%EV +0.506%E +0.198%K +0.326%G +0.002%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.95%EV -10.69%E -3.01%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-31 03:49
TABtouch🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.92%EV -13.91%E -5.72%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.13%EV +0.506%E +0.198%K +0.326%G +0.002%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.95%EV -10.69%E -3.01%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-31 03:50
Casumo🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.92%EV -13.91%E -5.72%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.13%EV +0.506%E +0.198%K +0.326%G +0.002%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.95%EV -10.69%E -3.01%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-31 03:50
Grosvenor🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.92%EV -13.91%E -5.72%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.13%EV +0.506%E +0.198%K +0.326%G +0.002%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.95%EV -10.69%E -3.01%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-31 03:50
betPARX🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.92%EV -13.91%E -5.72%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.13%EV +0.506%E +0.198%K +0.326%G +0.002%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.95%EV -10.69%E -3.01%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-31 03:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.92%EV -13.91%E -5.72%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.13%EV +0.506%E +0.198%K +0.326%G +0.002%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.95%EV -10.69%E -3.01%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-31 03:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.21%EV -14.97%E -6.24%K -10.70%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV +0.506%E +0.198%K +0.326%G +0.002%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.83%EV -10.69%E -3.01%K -4.19%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-31 03:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.27%EV -15.68%E -6.59%K -11.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.71%EV +0.506%E +0.198%K +0.326%G +0.002%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -11.95%E -3.41%K -4.78%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-31 03:50
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.27%EV -15.68%E -6.59%K -11.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.71%EV +0.506%E +0.198%K +0.326%G +0.002%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -11.95%E -3.41%K -4.78%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-31 03:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.27%EV -15.68%E -6.59%K -11.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.71%EV +0.506%E +0.198%K +0.326%G +0.002%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -11.95%E -3.41%K -4.78%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-31 03:50
Coolbet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.36%EV -7.18%E -2.74%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.57%EV -2.65%E -1.07%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.07%EV -4.40%E -1.16%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-31 03:50
Pinnacle🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 35.70%EV -3.64%E -1.34%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.47%EV -3.04%E -1.24%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.83%EV -1.63%E -0.417%K -0.561%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-31 03:40
GTbets🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.16%EV -6.12%E -2.31%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.95%EV -3.04%E -1.24%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.89%EV -3.14%E -0.816%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-31 03:50
PMU (FR)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 37.93%EV -17.45%E -7.49%K -13.12%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.07%EV -3.44%E -1.40%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.99%EV -14.46%E -4.25%K -6.03%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-31 03:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 34.28%EV -0.094%E -0.033%K -0.052%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.28%EV -5.41%E -2.25%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.44%EV -4.40%E -1.16%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-31 03:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 34.28%EV -0.094%E -0.033%K -0.052%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.28%EV -5.41%E -2.25%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.44%EV -4.40%E -1.16%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-31 03:40
BetUS🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 34.28%EV -0.094%E -0.033%K -0.052%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.28%EV -5.41%E -2.25%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.44%EV -4.40%E -1.16%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-31 03:45
picklebet_au🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.15%EV -4.35%E -1.61%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.54%EV -5.41%E -2.25%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.31%EV -5.66%E -1.51%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-31 03:50
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.69%EV -6.12%E -2.31%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.41%EV -5.41%E -2.25%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -4.40%E -1.16%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-31 03:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.69%EV -6.12%E -2.31%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.41%EV -5.41%E -2.25%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -4.40%E -1.16%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-31 03:55
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.03%EV -4.35%E -1.61%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.41%EV -5.41%E -2.25%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.56%EV -6.91%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-31 03:49
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.58%EV -6.12%E -2.31%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.28%EV -5.41%E -2.25%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -5.66%E -1.51%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-31 03:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.46%EV -6.12%E -2.31%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.15%EV -5.41%E -2.25%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -6.91%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-31 03:49
Neds🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.46%EV -6.12%E -2.31%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.15%EV -5.41%E -2.25%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -6.91%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-31 03:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.72%EV -7.18%E -2.74%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.99%EV -5.41%E -2.25%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -6.91%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-31 03:49
Bet Right🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.80%EV -11.43%E -4.57%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -5.41%E -2.25%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -6.91%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-31 03:49
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -4.35%E -1.61%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.47%EV -6.19%E -2.60%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV -8.17%E -2.24%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-31 03:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.34%EV -6.12%E -2.31%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.35%EV -6.19%E -2.60%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.31%EV -6.91%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-31 03:50
BetMGM🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -6.12%E -2.31%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.07%EV -6.19%E -2.60%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -9.43%E -2.62%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-31 03:49
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.09%EV -7.18%E -2.74%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -6.19%E -2.60%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -11.95%E -3.41%K -4.78%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-31 03:50
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.09%EV -7.18%E -2.74%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -6.19%E -2.60%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -11.95%E -3.41%K -4.78%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-31 03:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.09%EV -7.18%E -2.74%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -6.19%E -2.60%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -11.95%E -3.41%K -4.78%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-31 03:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.09%EV -7.18%E -2.74%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -6.19%E -2.60%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -11.95%E -3.41%K -4.78%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-31 03:50
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -11.43%E -4.57%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.27%EV -6.19%E -2.60%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -9.43%E -2.62%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-31 03:49
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.74%EV -11.43%E -4.57%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 38.76%EV -6.59%E -2.78%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -5.66%E -1.51%K -2.06%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-31 03:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 35.62%EV -7.53%E -2.89%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.39%EV -6.98%E -2.96%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 24.99%EV -6.41%E -1.72%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-31 03:49
SportsBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.97%EV -4.35%E -1.61%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.18%EV -7.38%E -3.14%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.85%EV -4.40%E -1.16%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-31 03:49
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.97%EV -4.35%E -1.61%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.18%EV -7.38%E -3.14%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.85%EV -4.40%E -1.16%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-31 03:50
PlayUp🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.74%EV -4.35%E -1.61%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.91%EV -7.38%E -3.14%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%EV -6.91%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-31 03:49
NordicBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.74%EV -6.12%E -2.31%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.68%EV -8.56%E -3.69%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -9.43%E -2.62%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-31 03:55
Betsson🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.74%EV -6.12%E -2.31%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.68%EV -8.56%E -3.69%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -9.43%E -2.62%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-31 03:55
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.24%EV -7.18%E -2.74%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.14%EV -9.35%E -4.06%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -5.66%E -1.51%K -2.06%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-31 03:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.03%EV -6.83%E -2.60%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.06%EV -9.35%E -4.06%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -6.91%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-31 03:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.74%EV -9.66%E -3.79%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.63%EV -9.35%E -4.06%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.63%EV -6.91%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-31 03:49
TAB🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -0.802%E -0.287%K -0.446%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -11.32%E -5.03%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -9.43%E -2.62%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-31 03:49
NetBet (FR)🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 35.88%EV -14.26%E -5.89%K -10.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.59%EV -11.32%E -5.03%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.54%EV -14.46%E -4.25%K -6.03%G +0.000%15.2%2026-10-31 03:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.01%EV -14.97%E -6.24%K -10.70%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.29%EV -13.29%E -6.04%K -11.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.70%EV -11.95%E -3.41%K -4.78%G +0.000%15.7%2026-10-31 03:49
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.10%EV -9.66%E -3.79%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.41%EV -17.23%E -8.21%K -15.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.49%EV -10.69%E -3.01%K -4.19%G +0.000%15.0%2026-10-31 03:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.84I 35.21%NM 34.91%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.98%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.10%0.9%2026-10-31 03:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.84I 35.21%NM 34.91%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.98%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.10%0.9%2026-10-31 03:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.84I 35.21%NM 34.91%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.30%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.79%0.9%2026-10-31 03:55
Matchbook◎2.84I 35.21%NM 34.91%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.30%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.79%0.9%2026-10-31 03:55
Smarkets◎2.82I 35.46%NM 34.74%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.15%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.12%2.1%2026-10-31 03:55
Kalshi◎2.78I 35.97%NM 34.95%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.82%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.23%2.9%2026-10-31 03:50

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