The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Newcastle Jets FC v Macarthur FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 04:00 UTC

Final: Newcastle Jets FC 1–1 Macarthur FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Newcastle Jets FC (Local)

Prediction 43.82%2.28fair odd
EV -2.71%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -2.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.65%43.84%43.77%47.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.082.102.2252.36%48.03%47.62%45.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Macarthur FC (Visit)

Prediction 31.23%3.20fair odd
EV +4.62%
Edge +1.38%
Kelly +1.97%
Growth +0.091%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.80%31.19%31.31%32.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.033.003.3535.71%33.03%33.33%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.95%4.01fair odd
EV -0.213%
Edge -0.053%
Kelly -0.071%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.26%24.97%24.92%26.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.733.754.0028.57%26.81%26.67%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Newcastle Jets FC (Local): 43.82%; Macarthur FC (Visit): 31.23%; Draw: 24.95%. For Macarthur FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.20. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.62%.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.07%EV -10.16%E -4.96%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.80%EV +4.62%E +1.38%K +1.97%G +0.091%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.12%EV -0.213%E -0.053%K -0.071%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-24 03:45
betPARX🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.86%EV -13.67%E -6.94%K -14.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -0.061%E -0.019%K -0.028%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -5.20%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 03:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.86%EV -13.67%E -6.94%K -14.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -0.061%E -0.019%K -0.028%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -5.20%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 03:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.86%EV -13.67%E -6.94%K -14.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -0.061%E -0.019%K -0.028%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -5.20%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 03:45
Casumo🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.86%EV -13.67%E -6.94%K -14.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -0.061%E -0.019%K -0.028%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -5.20%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 03:49
Grosvenor🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.86%EV -13.67%E -6.94%K -14.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -0.061%E -0.019%K -0.028%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -5.20%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 03:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.86%EV -13.67%E -6.94%K -14.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -0.061%E -0.019%K -0.028%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -5.20%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 03:45
TABtouch🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.86%EV -13.67%E -6.94%K -14.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -0.061%E -0.019%K -0.028%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -5.20%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 03:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.62%EV -14.11%E -7.20%K -14.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.01%EV -1.62%E -0.515%K -0.755%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.37%EV -6.45%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-24 03:45
Unibet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.47%EV -14.11%E -7.20%K -14.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.91%EV -1.62%E -0.515%K -0.755%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.62%EV -7.70%E -2.08%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-24 03:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.26%EV -5.78%E -2.69%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.70%EV -3.18%E -1.03%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.04%EV -5.20%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 03:55
GTbets🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.53%EV -6.22%E -2.91%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.84%EV -3.50%E -1.13%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 24.63%EV -3.46%E -0.893%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-24 03:34
Pinnacle🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.58%EV -2.71%E -1.22%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.41%EV -3.81%E -1.24%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 25.00%EV -3.46%E -0.893%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-24 03:45
Coolbet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.48%EV -6.22%E -2.91%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.11%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.41%EV -2.71%E -0.694%K -0.934%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-21 13:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 44.14%EV -4.03%E -1.84%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.69%EV -4.75%E -1.56%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%EV -0.213%E -0.053%K -0.071%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-24 03:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 44.14%EV -4.03%E -1.84%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.69%EV -4.75%E -1.56%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%EV -0.213%E -0.053%K -0.071%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-24 03:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.37%EV -16.30%E -8.53%K -17.91%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.04%EV -4.75%E -1.56%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.60%EV -10.19%E -2.83%K -3.92%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-24 03:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.37%EV -16.30%E -8.53%K -17.91%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.04%EV -4.75%E -1.56%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.60%EV -10.19%E -2.83%K -3.92%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-24 03:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.37%EV -16.30%E -8.53%K -17.91%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.04%EV -4.75%E -1.56%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.60%EV -10.19%E -2.83%K -3.92%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-24 03:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.69%EV -8.85%E -4.25%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.58%EV -5.06%E -1.66%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 24.72%EV -6.20%E -1.65%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 03:19
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.10%EV -3.59%E -1.63%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.61%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -6.45%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-24 03:50
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -3.59%E -1.63%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -7.70%E -2.08%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-24 03:50
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.81%EV -5.78%E -2.69%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.20%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-24 03:49
Codere (IT)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.81%EV -5.78%E -2.69%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.20%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-24 03:50
picklebet_au🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.81%EV -5.78%E -2.69%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.20%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-24 03:45
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.81%EV -5.78%E -2.69%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.20%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-24 03:40
Bovada🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.29%EV -4.91%E -2.26%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.32%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -7.70%E -2.08%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-24 03:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -5.78%E -2.69%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -6.45%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-24 03:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -3.59%E -1.63%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -10.19%E -2.83%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 03:50
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -3.59%E -1.63%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -10.19%E -2.83%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 03:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -3.59%E -1.63%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -10.19%E -2.83%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 03:45
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -5.78%E -2.69%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.70%E -2.08%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-24 03:49
TAB🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -5.78%E -2.69%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.70%E -2.08%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-24 03:43
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.97%E -3.80%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -12.69%E -3.62%K -5.07%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 03:25
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.97%E -3.80%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -12.69%E -3.62%K -5.07%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 03:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.97%E -3.80%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -12.69%E -3.62%K -5.07%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 03:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.97%E -3.80%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -12.69%E -3.62%K -5.07%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 03:25
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -5.78%E -2.69%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -7.87%E -2.67%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -10.19%E -2.83%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-24 03:50
Betsson🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -7.10%E -3.35%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.14%EV -7.87%E -2.67%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -10.19%E -2.83%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 03:45
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -7.10%E -3.35%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.14%EV -7.87%E -2.67%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -10.19%E -2.83%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 03:45
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.92%EV -7.97%E -3.80%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -9.43%E -3.25%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -5.20%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-24 03:49
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.92%EV -7.97%E -3.80%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -9.43%E -3.25%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -5.20%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-24 03:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 45.68%EV -16.30%E -8.53%K -17.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.09%EV -9.43%E -3.25%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.24%EV -10.19%E -2.83%K -3.92%G +0.000%14.6%2026-10-24 03:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.54%EV -7.97%E -3.80%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.75%EV -10.05%E -3.49%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.71%EV -7.70%E -2.08%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-24 03:50
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.28%EV -10.16%E -4.96%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.52%EV -10.05%E -3.49%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -6.45%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-24 03:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.31%EV -7.97%E -3.80%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.42%EV -10.37%E -3.61%K -5.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -0.213%E -0.053%K -0.071%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-24 00:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.13%EV -10.16%E -4.96%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.74%EV -10.99%E -3.86%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.13%EV -6.45%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-24 03:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.62%EV -14.55%E -7.46%K -15.31%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.53%EV -10.99%E -3.86%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.86%EV -12.69%E -3.62%K -5.07%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-24 03:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -10.16%E -4.96%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.02%EV -12.55%E -4.48%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.23%EV -7.70%E -2.08%K -2.85%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-24 03:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.25%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.97%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78%0.9%2026-10-24 03:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.03%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.31%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.66%1.4%2026-10-24 03:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.03%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.31%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.66%1.4%2026-10-24 03:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.03%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.31%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.66%1.4%2026-10-24 03:55
Kalshi◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.12%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.39%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%2.1%2026-10-24 03:45
Smarkets◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.12%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.09%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.79%2.1%2026-10-24 03:55

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.