The School of Odds
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Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City

2026-10-24 08:40 UTC — A-League

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Melbourne Victory (Local)

Prediction 41.05%2.44fair odd
EV -5.58%
Edge -2.43%
Kelly -4.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.56%41.05%41.05%41.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.202.252.3048.78%45.40%44.44%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Melbourne City (Visit)

Prediction 32.84%3.05fair odd
EV -4.77%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -2.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.59%32.84%32.84%33.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.752.802.9039.22%36.36%35.71%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.11%3.83fair odd
EV -3.39%
Edge -0.916%
Kelly -1.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.51%26.11%26.11%26.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.513.503.7029.41%28.50%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Melbourne Victory (Local): 41.05%; Melbourne City (Visit): 32.84%; Draw: 26.11%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.83. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.70, with an expected value of -3.39%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.41%EV -5.58%E -2.43%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.84%EV -4.77%E -1.64%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.74%EV -3.39%E -0.916%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-27 10:54
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -7.64%E -3.39%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -8.05%E -2.88%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -6.00%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-27 11:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -7.64%E -3.39%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -8.05%E -2.88%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -6.00%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-27 11:05
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.64%E -3.39%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.05%E -2.88%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.22%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-27 12:35
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.64%E -3.39%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.05%E -2.88%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.22%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-27 12:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.64%E -3.39%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.05%E -2.88%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.22%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-27 12:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.64%E -3.39%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.05%E -2.88%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.22%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-27 12:35
Codere (IT)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.54%EV -8.46%E -3.79%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -8.05%E -2.88%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.38%EV -4.70%E -1.29%K -1.77%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-27 10:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.68%EV -13.79%E -6.57%K -12.54%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.66%EV -14.62%E -5.62%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.66%EV -7.31%E -2.06%K -2.87%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-27 10:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.85%EV -15.85%E -7.73%K -15.09%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.64%EV -16.26%E -6.38%K -10.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.51%EV -8.61%E -2.46%K -3.45%G +0.000%16.6%2026-09-27 10:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.82%EV -15.85%E -7.73%K -15.09%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.97%EV -14.62%E -5.62%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.21%EV -11.22%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000%16.7%2026-09-27 10:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.