The School of Odds
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Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City

2026-10-24 08:40 UTC — A-League

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Melbourne Victory (Local)

Prediction 41.09%2.43fair odd
EV -3.45%
Edge -1.47%
Kelly -2.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.56%41.19%41.13%43.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.212.202.3550.51%45.35%45.45%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Melbourne City (Visit)

Prediction 32.83%3.05fair odd
EV -1.52%
Edge -0.506%
Kelly -0.759%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.17%32.67%32.81%33.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.812.803.0039.22%35.63%35.71%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.09%3.83fair odd
EV -2.17%
Edge -0.580%
Kelly -0.791%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.51%26.14%26.06%26.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.523.553.7529.41%28.38%28.17%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Melbourne Victory (Local): 41.09%; Melbourne City (Visit): 32.83%; Draw: 26.09%. For Melbourne City (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.05. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.00, with an expected value of -1.52%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.52%EV -6.44%E -2.26%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.82%EV -3.48%E -0.940%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-10 14:01
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.50%E -2.39%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -8.08%E -2.89%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.09%E -1.69%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-10 13:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.50%E -2.39%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -8.08%E -2.89%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.09%E -1.69%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-16 18:49
Marathon Bet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.62%EV -5.91%E -2.58%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.10%EV -7.76%E -2.76%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.28%EV -7.65%E -2.16%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-30 12:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.23%EV -6.32%E -2.77%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.09%EV -1.52%E -0.506%K -0.759%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.68%EV -2.17%E -0.580%K -0.791%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-16 14:20
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.37%EV -9.73%E -3.54%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -7.39%E -2.08%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-17 09:00
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -9.73%E -3.54%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -8.70%E -2.48%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-14 08:55
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.08%E -2.89%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.31%E -3.33%K -4.71%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-27 12:35
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.08%E -2.89%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.31%E -3.33%K -4.71%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-27 12:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.08%E -2.89%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.31%E -3.33%K -4.71%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-27 12:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.08%E -2.89%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.31%E -3.33%K -4.71%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-27 12:35
Codere (IT)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.54%EV -8.38%E -3.76%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -8.08%E -2.89%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.38%EV -4.78%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-27 10:55
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.74%EV -8.79%E -3.96%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -3.16%E -1.07%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -10.00%E -2.90%K -4.08%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-12 20:14
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.74%EV -8.79%E -3.96%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -3.16%E -1.07%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -10.00%E -2.90%K -4.08%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-12 20:09
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -9.61%E -4.37%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -1.52%E -0.506%K -0.759%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -7.39%E -2.08%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 08:45
betPARX🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.81%EV -9.61%E -4.37%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.28%EV -6.44%E -2.26%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -7.39%E -2.08%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-17 01:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.81%EV -9.61%E -4.37%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.28%EV -6.44%E -2.26%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -7.39%E -2.08%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-17 01:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.81%EV -9.61%E -4.37%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.28%EV -6.44%E -2.26%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -7.39%E -2.08%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-17 01:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.81%EV -9.61%E -4.37%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.28%EV -6.44%E -2.26%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -7.39%E -2.08%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-17 01:45
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.81%EV -9.61%E -4.37%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.28%EV -6.44%E -2.26%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -7.39%E -2.08%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-17 01:45
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.81%EV -9.61%E -4.37%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.28%EV -6.44%E -2.26%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -7.39%E -2.08%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-17 01:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.81%EV -9.61%E -4.37%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.28%EV -6.44%E -2.26%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -7.39%E -2.08%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-17 01:45
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.81%EV -9.61%E -4.37%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.28%EV -6.44%E -2.26%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -7.39%E -2.08%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-17 01:44
picklebet_au🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -9.61%E -4.37%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -9.73%E -3.54%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -6.09%E -1.69%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-14 07:39
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -9.61%E -4.37%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -9.73%E -3.54%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -6.09%E -1.69%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-17 08:45
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.64%EV -10.43%E -4.79%K -8.84%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.42%EV -8.08%E -2.89%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -8.70%E -2.48%K -3.48%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-17 01:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 41.76%EV -12.90%E -6.08%K -11.52%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.20%EV -9.73%E -3.54%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -11.31%E -3.33%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-16 14:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 41.76%EV -12.90%E -6.08%K -11.52%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.20%EV -9.73%E -3.54%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -11.31%E -3.33%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-16 14:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 41.76%EV -12.90%E -6.08%K -11.52%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.20%EV -9.73%E -3.54%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -11.31%E -3.33%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-16 14:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.68%EV -13.72%E -6.53%K -12.47%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.66%EV -14.65%E -5.63%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.66%EV -7.39%E -2.08%K -2.90%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-27 10:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.85%EV -15.77%E -7.69%K -15.02%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.64%EV -16.29%E -6.39%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.51%EV -8.70%E -2.48%K -3.48%G +0.000%16.6%2026-09-27 10:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 43.08%EV -18.65%E -9.42%K -19.03%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.19%EV -13.01%E -4.91%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.73%EV -10.00%E -2.90%K -4.08%G +0.000%17.2%2026-10-16 06:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.08I 48.08%NM 41.31%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.05%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.65%16.4%2026-10-14 08:50
Kalshi◎2.00I 50.00%NM 39.70%2.44I 40.98%NM 32.54%2.86I 34.97%NM 27.76%25.9%2026-10-17 13:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.12I 89.29%NM 34.31%160.2%2026-10-15 04:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.12I 89.29%NM 34.31%160.2%2026-10-15 04:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.12I 89.29%NM 34.31%160.2%2026-10-15 04:50