The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 08:40 UTC

Final: Melbourne Victory 1–1 Melbourne City

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Melbourne Victory (Local)

Prediction 43.26%2.31fair odd
EV +1.66%
Edge +0.705%
Kelly +1.23%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.70%43.25%43.24%44.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.182.182.3550.76%45.82%45.87%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Melbourne City (Visit)

Prediction 30.06%3.33fair odd
EV -0.816%
Edge -0.247%
Kelly -0.355%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.09%30.05%30.00%33.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.993.003.3037.04%33.40%33.33%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.69%3.75fair odd
EV -1.26%
Edge -0.341%
Kelly -0.467%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.94%26.70%26.76%27.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.493.503.7030.30%28.64%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melbourne Victory (Local): 43.26%; Melbourne City (Visit): 30.06%; Draw: 26.69%. For Melbourne Victory (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.31. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.66%.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.89%EV +1.66%E +0.705%K +1.23%G +0.020%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.14%EV -12.84%E -4.43%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.97%EV -1.26%E -0.341%K -0.467%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-24 08:25
TAB🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -2.67%E -1.19%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -9.83%E -3.28%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.60%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 08:24
betPARX🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.03%EV -2.67%E -1.19%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.97%EV -15.84%E -5.66%K -8.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.00%EV -5.26%E -1.48%K -2.06%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 08:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.03%EV -2.67%E -1.19%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.97%EV -15.84%E -5.66%K -8.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.00%EV -5.26%E -1.48%K -2.06%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 08:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.03%EV -2.67%E -1.19%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.97%EV -15.84%E -5.66%K -8.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.00%EV -5.26%E -1.48%K -2.06%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 08:25
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.03%EV -2.67%E -1.19%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.97%EV -15.84%E -5.66%K -8.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.00%EV -5.26%E -1.48%K -2.06%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 08:25
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.03%EV -2.67%E -1.19%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.97%EV -15.84%E -5.66%K -8.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.00%EV -5.26%E -1.48%K -2.06%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 08:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.03%EV -2.67%E -1.19%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.97%EV -15.84%E -5.66%K -8.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.00%EV -5.26%E -1.48%K -2.06%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 08:25
TABtouch🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.03%EV -2.67%E -1.19%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.97%EV -15.84%E -5.66%K -8.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.00%EV -5.26%E -1.48%K -2.06%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 08:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -2.67%E -1.19%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -15.84%E -5.66%K -8.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -6.60%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 08:25
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.70%EV -3.53%E -1.59%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.00%EV -17.35%E -6.31%K -9.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.30%EV -7.93%E -2.30%K -3.24%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-24 08:25
Codere (IT)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.55%EV -3.97%E -1.79%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%EV -6.83%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -6.60%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-24 08:20
GTbets🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.42%EV -3.97%E -1.79%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.50%EV -10.13%E -3.39%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.09%EV -3.66%E -1.01%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-24 08:12
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -4.83%E -2.20%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -3.82%E -1.19%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -6.60%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 08:25
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -4.83%E -2.20%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -3.82%E -1.19%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -9.27%E -2.73%K -3.86%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 08:11
picklebet_au🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -4.83%E -2.20%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -6.83%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.60%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 08:12
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -4.83%E -2.20%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -6.83%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.60%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 08:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -4.83%E -2.20%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -6.83%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.60%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 08:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -4.83%E -2.20%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -6.83%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.60%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 08:25
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -4.83%E -2.20%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -6.83%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.60%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 08:25
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.64%EV -4.83%E -2.20%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -5.32%E -1.69%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -9.27%E -2.73%K -3.86%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 08:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -4.83%E -2.20%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -9.83%E -3.28%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -6.60%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-24 08:14
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -4.83%E -2.20%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -9.83%E -3.28%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -6.60%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-24 08:15
Pinnacle🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 44.15%EV -5.26%E -2.40%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.57%EV -1.72%E -0.525%K -0.757%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.28%EV -1.79%E -0.488%K -0.670%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-24 08:15
BetOnline.ag🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.29%EV -5.70%E -2.61%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.26%EV -0.816%E -0.247%K -0.355%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.45%EV -2.60%E -0.711%K -0.979%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-24 08:12
LowVig.ag🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.29%EV -5.70%E -2.61%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.26%EV -0.816%E -0.247%K -0.355%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.45%EV -2.60%E -0.711%K -0.979%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-24 08:12
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.24%EV -6.13%E -2.82%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.09%EV -0.816%E -0.247%K -0.355%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.67%EV -3.93%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-24 08:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 40.79%EV -6.13%E -2.82%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.78%EV -18.85%E -6.98%K -11.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.42%EV -10.60%E -3.16%K -4.51%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-24 08:25
PMU (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 40.79%EV -6.13%E -2.82%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.78%EV -18.85%E -6.98%K -11.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.42%EV -10.60%E -3.16%K -4.51%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-24 08:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 40.79%EV -6.13%E -2.82%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.78%EV -18.85%E -6.98%K -11.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.42%EV -10.60%E -3.16%K -4.51%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-24 08:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -7.00%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -3.82%E -1.19%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -3.93%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-24 08:25
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.70%EV -7.00%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.83%EV -5.32%E -1.69%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -5.26%E -1.48%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-24 08:12
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -7.00%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -6.83%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -3.93%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-24 08:24
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -7.00%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -6.83%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -6.60%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-24 08:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.24%EV -7.00%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.58%EV -8.63%E -2.84%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -5.26%E -1.48%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 08:25
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -7.00%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -6.83%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -9.27%E -2.73%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-24 08:13
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -7.00%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -11.34%E -3.84%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -5.26%E -1.48%K -2.06%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-24 08:25
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.78%EV -7.00%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -8.33%E -2.73%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -9.27%E -2.73%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 08:12
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.78%EV -7.00%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -8.33%E -2.73%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -9.27%E -2.73%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 08:12
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.00%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -9.83%E -3.28%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.27%E -2.73%K -3.86%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-24 08:15
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.00%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -9.83%E -3.28%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.27%E -2.73%K -3.86%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-24 08:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.00%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -9.83%E -3.28%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.27%E -2.73%K -3.86%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-24 08:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.00%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -9.83%E -3.28%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.27%E -2.73%K -3.86%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-24 08:14
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -7.00%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -12.84%E -4.43%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -6.60%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 08:14
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -7.00%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.62%EV -13.44%E -4.67%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -6.60%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-24 08:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -9.16%E -4.36%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -6.83%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -9.27%E -2.73%K -3.86%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-24 08:25
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -9.16%E -4.36%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.30%EV -14.34%E -5.03%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.23%EV -9.27%E -2.73%K -3.86%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-24 08:12
NetBet (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 42.95%EV -12.62%E -6.25%K -12.37%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 30.76%EV -15.24%E -5.41%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.29%EV -11.94%E -3.62%K -5.19%G +0.000%15.3%2026-10-24 08:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 44.15%EV -14.78%E -7.50%K -15.24%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.49%EV -11.34%E -3.84%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.36%EV -11.94%E -3.62%K -5.19%G +0.000%15.0%2026-10-24 08:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.69%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.57%0.4%2026-10-24 08:25
Kalshi◎2.27I 44.05%NM 43.57%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.70%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%1.1%2026-10-24 08:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.34%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.71%1.2%2026-10-24 08:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.34%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.71%1.2%2026-10-24 08:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.56%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.83%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.61%1.6%2026-10-24 08:25
Smarkets◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.36%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.15%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%2.0%2026-10-24 08:25