The School of Odds
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Melbourne City v Western Sydney Wanderers

Kickoff: 2026-11-07 08:40 UTC

Final: Melbourne City 2–1 Western Sydney Wanderers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Melbourne City (Local)

Prediction 42.90%2.33fair odd
EV -3.48%
Edge -1.55%
Kelly -2.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.79%42.94%42.88%44.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.922.152.152.2552.08%46.60%46.51%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Western Sydney Wanderers (Visit)

Prediction 30.28%3.30fair odd
EV -0.084%
Edge -0.025%
Kelly -0.036%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.39%30.31%30.33%31.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.063.053.3037.04%32.73%32.79%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.83%3.73fair odd
EV -0.747%
Edge -0.202%
Kelly -0.277%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.68%26.74%26.79%27.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.483.503.7032.26%28.76%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melbourne City (Local): 42.90%; Western Sydney Wanderers (Visit): 30.28%; Draw: 26.83%. For Western Sydney Wanderers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.303. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.300, with an expected value of -0.084%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
picklebet_au🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -3.48%E -1.55%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -9.17%E -3.06%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.11%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-07 07:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.16%EV -3.91%E -1.75%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.46%EV -6.14%E -1.98%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.45%E -2.16%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-07 08:00
Pinnacle🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.74%EV -4.77%E -2.15%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.43%EV -0.084%E -0.025%K -0.036%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.83%EV -2.89%E -0.799%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.0%2026-11-07 08:25
BetOnline.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.51%EV -4.77%E -2.15%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.81%EV -1.90%E -0.587%K -0.848%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.68%EV -2.89%E -0.799%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.5%2026-11-07 08:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.51%EV -4.77%E -2.15%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.81%EV -1.90%E -0.587%K -0.848%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.68%EV -2.89%E -0.799%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.5%2026-11-07 08:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -5.63%E -2.56%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -3.11%E -0.972%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -6.11%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-07 08:35
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -5.63%E -2.56%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -6.14%E -1.98%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -3.43%E -0.953%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-07 07:55
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.93%EV -5.63%E -2.56%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%EV -6.14%E -1.98%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -4.77%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-07 07:55
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -5.63%E -2.56%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -6.14%E -1.98%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.11%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-07 08:00
TAB🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -5.63%E -2.56%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -6.14%E -1.98%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.11%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-07 08:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -5.63%E -2.56%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -6.14%E -1.98%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.11%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-07 07:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -5.63%E -2.56%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -6.14%E -1.98%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.11%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-07 07:55
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -5.63%E -2.56%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -6.14%E -1.98%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.11%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-07 07:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -5.63%E -2.56%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -9.17%E -3.06%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -6.11%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-07 07:54
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -5.63%E -2.56%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -9.17%E -3.06%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -6.11%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-07 08:30
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -5.63%E -2.56%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -9.17%E -3.06%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -6.11%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-07 07:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.68%EV -6.48%E -2.97%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.23%EV -4.63%E -1.47%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.09%EV -2.09%E -0.572%K -0.788%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-07 08:25
Bovada🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.07%EV -6.48%E -2.97%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.10%EV -5.53%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -6.11%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-07 08:34
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -7.77%E -3.61%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -3.11%E -0.972%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.11%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-07 08:25
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.49%EV -7.77%E -3.61%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -6.14%E -1.98%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -4.77%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-07 08:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.26%EV -7.77%E -3.61%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -6.14%E -1.98%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.73%EV -6.65%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-07 07:54
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.78%EV -7.77%E -3.61%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -7.65%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -8.79%E -2.59%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-07 08:10
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.78%EV -7.77%E -3.61%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -7.65%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -8.79%E -2.59%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-07 08:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -7.77%E -3.61%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -12.19%E -4.21%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -6.11%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%9.6%2026-11-07 07:55
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -7.77%E -3.61%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -9.17%E -3.06%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.48%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-07 08:34
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -7.77%E -3.61%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -9.17%E -3.06%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.48%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-07 08:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -7.77%E -3.61%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -9.17%E -3.06%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.48%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-07 08:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -7.77%E -3.61%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -9.17%E -3.06%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.48%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-07 08:30
GTbets🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.17%EV -8.20%E -3.83%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -4.63%E -1.47%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 25.83%EV -1.82%E -0.497%K -0.684%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-07 04:45
Coolbet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.62%EV -8.63%E -4.05%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.70%EV -3.11%E -0.972%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.68%EV -0.747%E -0.202%K -0.277%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-07 08:29
Casumo🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.46%EV -9.06%E -4.27%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -7.65%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -6.11%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-07 08:25
TABtouch🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.46%EV -9.06%E -4.27%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -7.65%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -6.11%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-07 08:25
Grosvenor🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.46%EV -9.06%E -4.27%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -7.65%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -6.11%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-07 08:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.46%EV -9.06%E -4.27%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -7.65%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -6.11%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-07 08:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.46%EV -9.06%E -4.27%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -7.65%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -6.11%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-07 08:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.46%EV -9.06%E -4.27%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -7.65%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -6.11%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-07 08:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.46%EV -9.06%E -4.27%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -7.65%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -6.11%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-07 08:25
betPARX🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.46%EV -9.06%E -4.27%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -7.65%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -6.11%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-07 08:25
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -9.92%E -4.72%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -6.14%E -1.98%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.11%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-07 08:35
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -9.92%E -4.72%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.55%EV -9.17%E -3.06%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -4.77%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-07 08:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -9.92%E -4.72%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -6.14%E -1.98%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -8.79%E -2.59%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-07 08:25
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -9.92%E -4.72%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.17%E -3.06%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -6.11%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-07 08:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.31%EV -9.92%E -4.72%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.32%EV -9.17%E -3.06%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.37%EV -7.45%E -2.16%K -3.04%G +0.000%9.9%2026-11-07 08:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.31%EV -9.92%E -4.72%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.32%EV -9.17%E -3.06%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.37%EV -7.45%E -2.16%K -3.04%G +0.000%9.9%2026-11-07 08:25
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.31%EV -9.92%E -4.72%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.32%EV -9.17%E -3.06%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.37%EV -7.45%E -2.16%K -3.04%G +0.000%9.9%2026-11-07 08:25
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.42%EV -12.06%E -5.88%K -11.49%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.62%EV -16.74%E -6.09%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.96%EV -10.14%E -3.03%K -4.31%G +0.000%15.0%2026-11-07 07:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 43.47%EV -12.49%E -6.12%K -12.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.06%EV -10.68%E -3.62%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.47%EV -10.14%E -3.03%K -4.31%G +0.000%12.8%2026-11-07 08:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 43.68%EV -14.63%E -7.35%K -14.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.98%EV -12.19%E -4.21%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.34%EV -11.48%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%15.0%2026-11-07 08:29
Unibet (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 42.91%EV -17.64%E -9.19%K -19.17%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 30.51%EV -18.25%E -6.76%K -10.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.58%EV -16.84%E -5.43%K -8.02%G +0.000%21.4%2026-11-07 07:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.91%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.46%0.8%2026-11-07 08:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.91%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.46%0.8%2026-11-07 08:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.91%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.46%0.8%2026-11-07 08:35
Matchbook◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.50%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.05%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.45%0.8%2026-11-07 08:35
Kalshi◎2.27I 44.05%NM 43.57%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.70%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%1.1%2026-11-07 08:35
Smarkets◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.56%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.83%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.61%1.6%2026-11-07 08:35

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