The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Melbourne City v Sydney FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-31 06:00 UTC

Final: Melbourne City 2–1 Sydney FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

50 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Melbourne City (Local)

Prediction 44.76%2.23fair odd
EV -1.54%
Edge -0.698%
Kelly -1.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.83%44.71%44.84%45.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.072.062.2052.63%48.29%48.54%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sydney FC (Visit)

Prediction 28.25%3.54fair odd
EV +0.296%
Edge +0.083%
Kelly +0.116%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.76%28.30%28.19%29.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.313.353.5533.90%30.18%29.85%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.99%3.70fair odd
EV -2.56%
Edge -0.710%
Kelly -0.981%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.31%26.99%26.97%27.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.423.403.6131.25%29.23%29.41%27.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melbourne City (Local): 44.76%; Sydney FC (Visit): 28.25%; Draw: 26.99%. For Sydney FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.54. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.296%.

Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.99%EV -7.35%E -3.55%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.81%EV +0.296%E +0.083%K +0.116%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -5.53%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-31 05:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 45.16%EV -4.22%E -1.97%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.61%EV -1.12%E -0.319%K -0.447%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.22%EV -4.18%E -1.18%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-31 05:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 45.16%EV -4.22%E -1.97%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.61%EV -1.12%E -0.319%K -0.447%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.22%EV -4.18%E -1.18%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-31 05:10
BetUS🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 45.16%EV -4.22%E -1.97%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.61%EV -1.12%E -0.319%K -0.447%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.22%EV -4.18%E -1.18%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-31 05:14
SportsBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.51%EV -6.91%E -3.32%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -1.12%E -0.319%K -0.447%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.44%EV -6.88%E -1.99%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-31 05:55
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -8.25%E -4.02%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -1.12%E -0.319%K -0.447%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -8.23%E -2.42%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-31 05:55
Pinnacle🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.69%EV -2.88%E -1.33%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.44%EV -3.66%E -1.07%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.87%EV -2.56%E -0.710%K -0.981%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-31 05:45
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -6.01%E -2.86%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -3.94%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -5.53%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-31 05:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -8.25%E -4.02%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -3.94%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -5.53%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-31 05:54
Grosvenor🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%EV -9.59%E -4.75%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -3.94%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.23%E -2.42%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-31 05:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%EV -9.59%E -4.75%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -3.94%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.23%E -2.42%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-31 05:45
TABtouch🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%EV -9.59%E -4.75%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -3.94%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.23%E -2.42%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-31 05:45
Casumo🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%EV -9.59%E -4.75%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -3.94%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.23%E -2.42%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-31 05:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%EV -9.59%E -4.75%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -3.94%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.23%E -2.42%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-31 05:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%EV -9.59%E -4.75%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -3.94%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.23%E -2.42%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-31 05:55
betPARX🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%EV -9.59%E -4.75%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -3.94%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.23%E -2.42%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-31 05:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.51%EV -9.59%E -4.75%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -3.94%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -9.58%E -2.86%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-31 05:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -10.49%E -5.24%K -10.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -3.94%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -10.93%E -3.31%K -4.75%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-31 05:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%EV -8.70%E -4.26%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.52%EV -4.51%E -1.33%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.88%EV -6.61%E -1.91%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-26 00:21
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.91%EV -6.01%E -2.86%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -5.35%E -1.60%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -5.53%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-31 05:55
Bovada🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.14%EV -6.91%E -3.32%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -5.35%E -1.60%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -5.53%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-31 05:53
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -6.91%E -3.32%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -5.35%E -1.60%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -8.23%E -2.42%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-31 05:55
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -6.91%E -3.32%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -5.35%E -1.60%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -8.23%E -2.42%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-31 05:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.58%EV -10.49%E -5.24%K -10.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -5.35%E -1.60%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -9.58%E -2.86%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-31 05:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.58%EV -10.49%E -5.24%K -10.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -5.35%E -1.60%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -9.58%E -2.86%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-31 05:55
Unibet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.58%EV -10.49%E -5.24%K -10.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -5.35%E -1.60%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -9.58%E -2.86%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-31 05:55
GTbets🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.82%EV -5.12%E -2.41%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.79%EV -6.77%E -2.05%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39%EV -2.83%E -0.786%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-31 05:25
Coolbet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.82%EV -5.12%E -2.41%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.79%EV -6.77%E -2.05%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39%EV -2.83%E -0.786%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-31 05:34
PlayUp🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.95%EV -6.91%E -3.32%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.77%E -2.05%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -5.53%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 05:55
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -1.54%E -0.698%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -8.18%E -2.52%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -8.23%E -2.42%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-31 05:25
picklebet_au🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.94%EV -3.77%E -1.76%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -8.18%E -2.52%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -5.53%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-31 05:25
Codere (IT)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.17%EV -4.67%E -2.19%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -8.18%E -2.52%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.53%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-31 05:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -6.01%E -2.86%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -8.18%E -2.52%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -5.53%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 05:25
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -8.25%E -4.02%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -8.18%E -2.52%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -10.93%E -3.31%K -4.75%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-31 05:10
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -8.25%E -4.02%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -8.18%E -2.52%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -10.93%E -3.31%K -4.75%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-31 05:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -8.25%E -4.02%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -8.18%E -2.52%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -10.93%E -3.31%K -4.75%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-31 05:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -8.25%E -4.02%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -8.18%E -2.52%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -10.93%E -3.31%K -4.75%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-31 05:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 45.71%EV -13.62%E -7.06%K -14.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.14%EV -8.18%E -2.52%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.14%EV -12.28%E -3.78%K -5.46%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-31 05:55
TAB🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -3.77%E -1.76%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -9.59%E -3.00%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -2.83%E -0.786%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-31 05:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -1.54%E -0.698%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -9.59%E -3.00%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -8.23%E -2.42%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-31 05:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -1.54%E -0.698%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -9.59%E -3.00%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -8.23%E -2.42%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-31 05:25
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -1.54%E -0.698%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -9.59%E -3.00%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -8.23%E -2.42%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-31 05:25
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -3.77%E -1.76%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -9.59%E -3.00%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.23%E -2.42%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-31 05:25
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -6.01%E -2.86%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.59%E -3.00%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -8.23%E -2.42%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-31 05:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -6.01%E -2.86%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.59%E -3.00%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -8.23%E -2.42%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-31 05:35
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -8.25%E -4.02%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -9.59%E -3.00%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -8.23%E -2.42%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-31 05:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.34%EV -8.25%E -4.02%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -12.42%E -4.01%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -6.88%E -1.99%K -2.81%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-31 05:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.67%EV -12.73%E -6.53%K -13.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.10%EV -12.42%E -4.01%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.22%EV -13.63%E -4.26%K -6.19%G +0.000%14.8%2026-10-31 05:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 45.69%EV -14.96%E -7.88%K -16.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.00%EV -12.42%E -4.01%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.31%EV -10.93%E -3.31%K -4.75%G +0.000%15.2%2026-10-31 05:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.03%EV -11.38%E -5.75%K -11.61%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.55%EV -16.66%E -5.65%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.42%EV -10.93%E -3.31%K -4.75%G +0.000%14.7%2026-10-31 05:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 45.79%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.48%1.1%2026-10-31 05:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 45.79%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.48%1.1%2026-10-31 05:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 45.79%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.48%1.1%2026-10-31 05:55
Matchbook◎2.16I 46.30%NM 45.79%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.48%1.1%2026-10-31 05:55
Kalshi◎2.17I 46.08%NM 45.14%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.39%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.47%2.1%2026-10-31 05:35
Smarkets◎2.14I 46.73%NM 45.68%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.78%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.54%2.3%2026-10-31 05:55

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