The School of Odds
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Macarthur FC v Brisbane Roar

Kickoff: 2026-11-08 04:00 UTC

Final: Macarthur FC 1–2 Brisbane Roar

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Macarthur FC (Local)

Prediction 37.31%2.68fair odd
EV -2.25%
Edge -0.860%
Kelly -1.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.56%37.40%37.14%39.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.442.452.6247.62%41.04%40.82%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brisbane Roar (Visit)

Prediction 36.55%2.74fair odd
EV +2.35%
Edge +0.841%
Kelly +1.31%
Growth +0.031%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.00%36.40%36.74%37.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.592.592.8041.67%38.61%38.61%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.14%3.83fair odd
EV -0.678%
Edge -0.178%
Kelly -0.242%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.25%26.20%26.12%27.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.523.503.8032.26%28.41%28.57%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Macarthur FC (Local): 37.31%; Brisbane Roar (Visit): 36.55%; Draw: 26.14%. For Brisbane Roar (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.74. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.35%.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.18%EV -9.34%E -3.84%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.00%EV +2.35%E +0.841%K +1.31%G +0.031%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.82%EV -7.21%E -2.03%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-08 03:25
GTbets🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.65%EV -8.60%E -3.51%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.68%EV -0.205%E -0.075%K -0.118%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.67%EV -7.21%E -2.03%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-04 09:45
picklebet_au🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -6.73%E -2.69%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.07%EV -1.30%E -0.482%K -0.766%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -8.52%E -2.43%K -3.41%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-08 01:20
TAB🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.41%EV -10.46%E -4.36%K -7.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.03%EV -1.30%E -0.482%K -0.766%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.56%EV -3.29%E -0.890%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.7%2026-11-08 03:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -6.73%E -2.69%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -1.30%E -0.482%K -0.766%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.34%EV -9.83%E -2.85%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-08 01:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -12.33%E -5.25%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.11%EV -1.30%E -0.482%K -0.766%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -9.83%E -2.85%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-08 03:25
Grosvenor🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -12.33%E -5.25%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.11%EV -1.30%E -0.482%K -0.766%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -9.83%E -2.85%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-08 03:25
Casumo🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -12.33%E -5.25%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.11%EV -1.30%E -0.482%K -0.766%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -9.83%E -2.85%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-08 03:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -12.33%E -5.25%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.11%EV -1.30%E -0.482%K -0.766%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -9.83%E -2.85%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-08 03:25
TABtouch🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -12.33%E -5.25%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.11%EV -1.30%E -0.482%K -0.766%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -9.83%E -2.85%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-08 03:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -12.33%E -5.25%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.11%EV -1.30%E -0.482%K -0.766%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -9.83%E -2.85%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-08 03:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -12.33%E -5.25%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.11%EV -1.30%E -0.482%K -0.766%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -9.83%E -2.85%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-08 03:25
betPARX🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -12.33%E -5.25%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.11%EV -1.30%E -0.482%K -0.766%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -9.83%E -2.85%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-08 03:25
Coolbet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.31%EV -6.73%E -2.69%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.13%E -1.18%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.54%EV -1.98%E -0.529%K -0.722%G +0.000%4.4%2026-11-08 03:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -8.60%E -3.51%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -3.13%E -1.18%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -8.52%E -2.43%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-08 01:19
Unibet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.99%EV -13.07%E -5.61%K -9.83%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.28%EV -3.13%E -1.18%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.72%EV -11.13%E -3.27%K -4.64%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-08 03:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.99%EV -13.07%E -5.61%K -9.83%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.28%EV -3.13%E -1.18%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.72%EV -11.13%E -3.27%K -4.64%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-08 03:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.99%EV -13.07%E -5.61%K -9.83%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.28%EV -3.13%E -1.18%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.72%EV -11.13%E -3.27%K -4.64%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-08 03:25
BetOnline.ag🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.93%EV -2.25%E -0.860%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.93%EV -4.23%E -1.61%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.15%EV -3.29%E -0.890%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.4%2026-11-08 03:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.93%EV -2.25%E -0.860%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.93%EV -4.23%E -1.61%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.15%EV -3.29%E -0.890%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.4%2026-11-08 03:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 38.73%EV -11.58%E -4.89%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -4.23%E -1.61%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -8.52%E -2.43%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-02 04:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -6.73%E -2.69%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -4.96%E -1.91%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -5.91%E -1.64%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-08 03:50
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -4.87%E -1.91%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -4.96%E -1.91%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -8.52%E -2.43%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-08 03:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.94%EV -14.94%E -6.55%K -11.67%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.15%EV -4.96%E -1.91%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.91%EV -13.75%E -4.17%K -5.98%G +0.000%12.6%2026-11-08 03:25
Pinnacle🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 37.02%EV -2.25%E -0.860%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 37.45%EV -5.32%E -2.06%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.53%EV -0.678%E -0.178%K -0.242%G +0.000%3.1%2026-11-08 03:19
DraftKings🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.87%E -1.91%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -6.78%E -2.66%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.63%EV -3.29%E -0.890%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-08 03:25
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.52%EV -6.73%E -2.69%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.78%EV -6.78%E -2.66%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.70%EV -4.60%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.6%2026-11-08 03:55
NordicBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.44%EV -8.60%E -3.51%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.97%EV -6.78%E -2.66%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -9.83%E -2.85%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-08 03:55
Betsson🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.44%EV -8.60%E -3.51%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.97%EV -6.78%E -2.66%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -9.83%E -2.85%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-08 03:55
Bet Right🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.21%EV -10.46%E -4.36%K -7.47%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -6.78%E -2.66%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.83%EV -7.21%E -2.03%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-08 03:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.57%EV -12.33%E -5.25%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.54%EV -6.78%E -2.66%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -8.52%E -2.43%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-08 01:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.93%EV -5.98%E -2.37%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 36.78%EV -7.52%E -2.97%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.29%EV -7.47%E -2.11%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-08 03:25
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.89%EV -4.87%E -1.91%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.33%EV -7.88%E -3.13%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.77%EV -4.60%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-08 03:29
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -6.73%E -2.69%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -8.61%E -3.45%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -3.29%E -0.890%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-08 03:50
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -6.73%E -2.69%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -8.61%E -3.45%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -3.29%E -0.890%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-08 03:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -6.73%E -2.69%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -8.61%E -3.45%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -3.29%E -0.890%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-08 03:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -6.73%E -2.69%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -8.61%E -3.45%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -3.29%E -0.890%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-08 03:50
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -6.73%E -2.69%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -8.61%E -3.45%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -5.91%E -1.64%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-08 03:20
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -6.73%E -2.69%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -8.61%E -3.45%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -5.91%E -1.64%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-08 03:50
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -6.73%E -2.69%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -8.61%E -3.45%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -8.52%E -2.43%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-08 03:30
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -6.73%E -2.69%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -8.61%E -3.45%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -8.52%E -2.43%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-08 03:30
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -6.73%E -2.69%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -8.61%E -3.45%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -8.52%E -2.43%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-08 03:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -6.73%E -2.69%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -8.61%E -3.45%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -8.52%E -2.43%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-08 03:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -6.73%E -2.69%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -8.61%E -3.45%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -8.52%E -2.43%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-08 03:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -6.73%E -2.69%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -8.61%E -3.45%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -11.13%E -3.27%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-08 03:55
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -10.46%E -4.36%K -7.47%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -8.61%E -3.45%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -8.52%E -2.43%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.2%2026-11-08 02:50
NetBet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.90%EV -14.19%E -6.17%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 35.29%EV -9.71%E -3.93%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.82%EV -15.05%E -4.63%K -6.69%G +0.000%14.7%2026-11-08 03:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.61%EV -16.06%E -7.14%K -12.85%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.46%EV -10.44%E -4.26%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.93%EV -12.44%E -3.71%K -5.29%G +0.000%15.1%2026-11-08 01:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 39.18%EV -21.65%E -10.31%K -19.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 34.28%EV -12.27%E -5.11%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.54%EV -18.97%E -6.12%K -9.04%G +0.000%21.5%2026-11-08 01:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.59%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.86%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.54%0.5%2026-11-08 03:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.76%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.76%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47%0.7%2026-11-08 03:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.49%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.04%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47%0.7%2026-11-08 03:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.49%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.04%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47%0.7%2026-11-08 03:55
Kalshi◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.66%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.63%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.71%1.0%2026-11-08 03:55
Smarkets◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.36%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.91%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%1.1%2026-11-08 03:55

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