The School of Odds
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Brisbane Roar v Perth Glory

Kickoff: 2026-10-23 09:00 UTC

Final: Brisbane Roar 2–1 Perth Glory

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Brisbane Roar (Local)

Prediction 41.10%2.43fair odd
EV -1.35%
Edge -0.562%
Kelly -0.963%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.24%41.11%41.14%44.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.202.222.4050.00%45.43%45.05%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Perth Glory (Visit)

Prediction 31.64%3.16fair odd
EV +4.40%
Edge +1.33%
Kelly +1.91%
Growth +0.084%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.24%31.68%31.58%32.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.993.003.3036.36%33.44%33.33%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.26%3.67fair odd
EV +0.853%
Edge +0.231%
Kelly +0.316%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.83%27.21%27.28%27.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.443.453.7031.25%29.11%28.99%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Brisbane Roar (Local): 41.10%; Perth Glory (Visit): 31.64%; Draw: 27.26%. For Perth Glory (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.16. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.40%.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.68%EV -11.21%E -5.19%K -9.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.24%EV +4.40%E +1.33%K +1.91%G +0.084%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.08%EV +0.853%E +0.231%K +0.316%G +0.003%3.6%2026-10-23 08:40
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.26%EV -7.51%E -3.34%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.18%EV -0.342%E -0.109%K -0.159%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.56%EV -5.96%E -1.73%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-23 08:58
betPARX🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.35%EV -14.50%E -6.97%K -13.43%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.29%EV -0.342%E -0.109%K -0.159%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.36%EV -4.60%E -1.31%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-23 08:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.35%EV -14.50%E -6.97%K -13.43%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.29%EV -0.342%E -0.109%K -0.159%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.36%EV -4.60%E -1.31%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-23 08:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.35%EV -14.50%E -6.97%K -13.43%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.29%EV -0.342%E -0.109%K -0.159%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.36%EV -4.60%E -1.31%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-23 08:40
Casumo🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.35%EV -14.50%E -6.97%K -13.43%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.29%EV -0.342%E -0.109%K -0.159%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.36%EV -4.60%E -1.31%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-23 08:40
Grosvenor🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.35%EV -14.50%E -6.97%K -13.43%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.29%EV -0.342%E -0.109%K -0.159%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.36%EV -4.60%E -1.31%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-23 08:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.35%EV -14.50%E -6.97%K -13.43%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.29%EV -0.342%E -0.109%K -0.159%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.36%EV -4.60%E -1.31%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-23 08:40
TABtouch🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.35%EV -14.50%E -6.97%K -13.43%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.29%EV -0.342%E -0.109%K -0.159%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.36%EV -4.60%E -1.31%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-23 08:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.01%EV -5.46%E -2.37%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.77%EV -0.658%E -0.210%K -0.308%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.22%EV -3.24%E -0.911%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-23 08:57
LowVig.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.01%EV -5.46%E -2.37%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.77%EV -0.658%E -0.210%K -0.308%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.22%EV -3.24%E -0.911%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-23 08:58
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -9.57%E -4.35%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -1.92%E -0.621%K -0.916%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -7.32%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-23 08:58
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.26%EV -14.91%E -7.20%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.56%EV -1.92%E -0.621%K -0.916%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -4.60%E -1.31%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-23 08:40
Unibet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.22%EV -15.32%E -7.44%K -14.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.38%EV -1.92%E -0.621%K -0.916%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -5.96%E -1.73%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-23 08:40
GTbets🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.20%EV -7.51%E -3.34%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.83%EV -2.56%E -0.830%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.97%EV -4.05%E -1.15%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-23 03:36
Pinnacle🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.35%EV -1.35%E -0.562%K -0.963%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.75%EV -3.51%E -1.15%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.91%EV -5.42%E -1.56%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-23 08:51
Coolbet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.26%EV -4.64%E -2.00%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.39%EV -3.51%E -1.15%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.35%EV -4.60%E -1.31%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-23 08:23
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.31%EV -5.46%E -2.37%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.51%E -1.15%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -5.96%E -1.73%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-23 08:58
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.41%EV -3.40%E -1.45%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -5.09%E -1.70%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -7.32%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-23 08:58
picklebet_au🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.26%EV -5.46%E -2.37%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -5.09%E -1.70%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -4.60%E -1.31%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-23 08:23
PlayUp🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.14%EV -6.28%E -2.75%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -5.09%E -1.70%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -7.32%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-23 08:58
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -11.62%E -5.41%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -5.09%E -1.70%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -10.05%E -3.05%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-23 08:58
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.18%EV -17.79%E -8.90%K -17.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -5.09%E -1.70%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.37%EV -8.69%E -2.59%K -3.70%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-23 08:40
PMU (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.18%EV -17.79%E -8.90%K -17.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -5.09%E -1.70%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.37%EV -8.69%E -2.59%K -3.70%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-23 08:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.18%EV -17.79%E -8.90%K -17.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -5.09%E -1.70%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.37%EV -8.69%E -2.59%K -3.70%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-23 08:40
Codere (IT)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.25%EV -6.28%E -2.75%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.88%EV -6.67%E -2.26%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -4.60%E -1.31%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-23 08:23
Bovada🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.24%EV -4.23%E -1.81%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.78%EV -6.67%E -2.26%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.98%EV -8.69%E -2.59%K -3.70%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-23 08:54
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.57%EV -8.75%E -3.94%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.28%EV -6.67%E -2.26%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -7.32%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-23 08:57
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.57%EV -8.75%E -3.94%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.28%EV -6.67%E -2.26%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -7.32%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-23 08:58
Marathon Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.82%EV -6.28%E -2.75%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.65%EV -6.99%E -2.38%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.53%EV -7.87%E -2.33%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-23 08:50
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -5.46%E -2.37%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -8.25%E -2.85%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -4.60%E -1.31%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-23 08:09
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -5.46%E -2.37%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -8.25%E -2.85%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -4.60%E -1.31%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-23 08:14
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.46%E -2.37%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -8.25%E -2.85%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -5.96%E -1.73%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-23 08:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.46%E -2.37%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -8.25%E -2.85%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -5.96%E -1.73%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-23 08:15
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -5.46%E -2.37%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -8.25%E -2.85%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.32%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-23 08:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -5.46%E -2.37%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -8.25%E -2.85%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.32%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-23 08:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -7.51%E -3.34%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -8.25%E -2.85%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -4.60%E -1.31%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-23 08:23
TAB🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -7.51%E -3.34%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -8.25%E -2.85%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -4.60%E -1.31%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-23 08:57
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -9.57%E -4.35%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -8.25%E -2.85%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -10.05%E -3.05%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-23 08:57
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -9.57%E -4.35%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -8.25%E -2.85%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -10.05%E -3.05%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-23 08:58
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -9.57%E -4.35%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -8.25%E -2.85%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -10.05%E -3.05%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-23 08:57
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -9.57%E -4.35%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -8.25%E -2.85%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -10.05%E -3.05%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-23 08:58
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.89%EV -7.51%E -3.34%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.05%EV -9.20%E -3.21%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -7.32%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-23 08:57
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -7.51%E -3.34%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -9.83%E -3.45%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -7.32%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-23 08:57
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.51%E -3.34%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -11.42%E -4.08%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -7.32%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-23 08:57
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -9.57%E -4.35%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -11.42%E -4.08%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -4.60%E -1.31%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-23 08:23
NetBet (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 41.91%EV -14.91%E -7.20%K -13.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.98%EV -11.42%E -4.08%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.11%EV -12.78%E -3.99%K -5.81%G +0.000%15.3%2026-10-23 08:56
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.27%EV -17.79%E -8.90%K -17.79%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.90%EV -11.42%E -4.08%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.83%EV -8.69%E -2.59%K -3.70%G +0.000%15.6%2026-10-23 08:36
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.58%EV -11.62%E -5.41%K -10.11%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.51%EV -13.00%E -4.73%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -5.96%E -1.73%K -2.43%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-23 08:23
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.74%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.7%2026-10-23 08:58
Smarkets◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.99%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.52%0.9%2026-10-23 08:58
Matchbook◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.99%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.52%0.9%2026-10-23 08:58
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.94%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.93%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.12%1.0%2026-10-23 08:58
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.56%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.05%1.3%2026-10-23 08:58
Kalshi◎2.27I 44.05%NM 43.17%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.34%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%2.0%2026-10-23 08:58